Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn: 2789-3219 )
Evaluation of EOS Gene Expression and IL-6 Serum Levels in Iraqi Patients with Psoriasis
...Show More Authors

Background: EOS (encoded by the IKZF4 gene) is a member of the zinc finger transcription factor IKaros family, and plays a critical role in Treg suppressor functions, and maintaining Treg stability. IL-6 is a soluble mediator with a pleiotropic effect on inflammation, immune response, and hematopoiesis. Aim: To estimate serum IL-6 level and EOS gene expression in Iraqi patients with psoriasis. Method: Twenty-two patients with psoriasis (8 females, 14 males) with age ranged 18-72 years, were recruited from Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Dermatology Clinic, Baghdad, and 24 healthy donors. The serum levels of IL-6 by ELISA and the gene expression of IKZF4 (EOS gene) by RT-qPCR technique. Results: The results showed a non-significant diffe

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Aug 05 2020
Journal Name
Advances In Structural Engineering
Strength compensation of deep beams with large web openings using carbon fiber–reinforced polymer sheets
...Show More Authors

This article presents the results of an experimental investigation of using carbon fiber–reinforced polymer sheets to enhance the behavior of reinforced concrete deep beams with large web openings in shear spans. A set of 18 specimens were fabricated and tested up to a failure to evaluate the structural performance in terms of cracking, deformation, and load-carrying capacity. All tested specimens were with 1500-mm length, 500-mm cross-sectional deep, and 150-mm wide. Parameters that studied were opening size, opening location, and the strengthening factor. Two deep beams were implemented as control specimens without opening and without strengthening. Eight deep beams were fabricated with openings but without strengthening, while

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref (19)
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Serum prolactin, Preptin, CCL 18 and genetic polymorphisms in Iraqi women with polycystic ovary syndrome
...Show More Authors

The polycystic ovary syndrome is an endocrine condition. One of the leading causes of female infertility and the most common disorder among women. The work was being carried out on 100 Iraqi women (50 cases confirmed with PCOS and 50 controls). Between October 2019 and March 2020, blood samples were collected from the Advanced Institute of Infertility Diagnosis and Assisted Reproductive Technology at AL-Nahrain University and a private laboratory. ELISA was used to evaluate the biochemical parameters of preptin, FSH, insulin, LH, and CCL 18 in serum samples from the AFIAS-6 (AFIAS Automated Immunoassay System). The findings of the analysis indicate that, as opposed to the control group, values of prolactin (ng/ml), LH (mIU/ml), Preptin (

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (6)
Crossref (4)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effects of fixed orthodontic appliance with antihypertensive drugs on the body weight of experimental rats
...Show More Authors

Background: This study aims to investigate the effect of fixed orthodontic appliances and/or antihypertensive drugs on the weight of experimental rats. Materials and Methods: Thir-ty-six male Wistar albino rats were subjected to a split-mouth design study, in which an orthodontic appliance was inserted in one side to move the first molar mesially for 2 weeks while the other side acted as a control to tooth movement. The rats were allocated into three groups: group A (n = 12), without any pharmacological treatment; group B (n = 12), subcu-taneous injection of bisoprolol fumarate (5 mg/kg) daily; and group C (n = 12), subcutaneous injection of valsartan (10 mg/kg) daily. A fixed orthodontic appliance with a closing coil spring delivering 5

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (1)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 27 2022
Journal Name
Materials
Flexural Performance of Encased Pultruded GFRP I-Beam with High Strength Concrete under Static Loading
...Show More Authors

There is an interesting potential for the use of GFRP-pultruded profiles in hybrid GFRP-concrete structural elements, either for new constructions or for the rehabilitation of existing structures. This paper provides experimental and numerical investigations on the flexural performance of reinforced concrete (RC) specimens composite with encased pultruded GFRP I-sections. Five simply supported composite beams were tested in this experimental program to investigate the static flexural behavior of encased GFRP beams with high-strength concrete. Besides, the effect of using shear studs to improve the composite interaction between the GFRP beam and concrete as well as the effect of web stiffeners of GFRP were explored. Encasing the GFRP

... Show More
Scopus (14)
Crossref (15)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Bionatura Journal
Effect of Solanum aculeastrum on hematological parameters of Al-bino mice infected with Aspergillus fumigatus
...Show More Authors

The goal of the current study was to research the changes in hematological parameters: WBC count, RBCs count, Hb, PCV, neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte in albino mice infected with Aspergillus fumigatus by intraperitoneal injection after induced immunosuppression by intraperitoneal injection of cortisone. The current research also examined an attempt to reduce the infection load by treating Solanum aculeastrum. The result shows higher decreased significance (P≤0. 05) in RBCs, Hb, and PCV after being infected with A. fumigatus 7. 1 ± 0. 8, 11. 3 ± 0. 5 and 41. 5 ± 2. 4, respectively, while the total WBC count, neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocytes were increased significantly (P≤0. 05) after treatment with S. aculeastrum i

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences And Applications
Cutaneous manifestations at saphenous vein harvest site among Iraqi patients with coronary artery bypass graft
...Show More Authors

KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, AS Alaboudi, Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications, 2012 - Cited by 3

View Publication
Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2013
Journal Name
The Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal
Efficacy and safety of topical podophyllin 5% ointment in patients with mild plaque-type psoriasis
...Show More Authors

KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, WK Al-Janabi, The Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal, 2013 - Cited by 3

View Publication
Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Differential Equations
Dynamical Behaviours of Stage-Structured Fractional-Order Prey-Predator Model with Crowley-Martin Functional Response
...Show More Authors

In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of the stage-structure prey-predator fractional-order derivative system is considered and discussed. In this model, the Crowley–Martin functional response describes the interaction between mature preys with a predator.  e existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and the boundedness of solutions are proved. All possible equilibrium points of this system are investigated.  e su‰cient conditions of local stability of equilibrium points for the considered system are determined. Finally, numerical simulation results are carried out to con‹rm the theoretical results.

Preview PDF
Scopus (3)
Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete Deep Beams With and Without Opening
...Show More Authors

This paper presents a nonlinear finite element modeling and analysis of steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) deep beams with and without openings in web subjected to two- point loading. In this study, the beams were modeled using ANSYS nonlinear finite element
software. The percentage of steel fiber was varied from 0 to 1.0%.The influence of fiber content in the concrete deep beams has been studied by measuring the deflection of the deep beams at mid- span and marking the cracking patterns, compute the failure loads for each deep beam, and also study the shearing and first principal stresses for the deep beams with and without openings and with different steel fiber ratios. The above study indicates that the location of openings an

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (4)
Crossref