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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Medicine And Life
Effect of commercially pure titanium implant coated with calcium carbonate and nanohydroxyapatite mixture on osseointegration
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In this research, rabbit femurs were implanted with CP Ti screws coated with a combination of CaCO3 and nanohydroxyapatite, and the effect on osseointegration was assessed using histological and histomorphometric examination at 2 and 6 weeks. CaCO3 and nanohydroxyapatite were combined with the EPD to coat the surfaces of the CP Ti screws. The femurs of five male rabbits were implanted with coated and uncoated implant screws. Healing time was divided into two groups (2 and 6 weeks). After 2 and 6 weeks of implantation, the histological examination revealed an increase in the growth of bone cells for coated screws, and the histomorphometric analysis revealed an increase in the percentage of ne

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Investigation of Convection Heat Transfer Enhancement in Horizontal Channel Provided with Metal Foam Blocks
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Convection heat transfer in a horizontal channel provided with metal foam blocks of two numbers of pores per unit of length (10 and 40 PPI) and partially heated at a constant heat flux is experimentally investigated with air as the working fluid. A series of experiments have been carried out under steady state condition. The experimental investigations cover the Reynolds number range from 638 to 2168, heat fluxes varied from 453 to 4462 W/m2, and Darcy number 1.77x10-5, 3.95x10-6. The measured data were collected and analyzed. Results show that the wall temperatures at each heated section are affected by the imposed heat flux variation, Darcy number, and Reynolds number variation. The var

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Challenges Facing Blended Education from the Point Of View of Teachers Teaching Children with Disabilities
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The current research aims to identify: 1) the challenges facing blended education from the point of view of teachers of students with disabilities. 2) The challenges facing blended education from the point of view of teachers of students with disabilities according to the gender variable (males-females). 3) The challenges facing blended education from the point of view of teachers of students with disabilities, according to the academic qualifications of graduates

(institute-bachelors-masters). 4) The challenges facing blended education from the point of view of male and female teachers, according to the functional service period with students with disabilities (less than 8 years - from 9 to 15 years - 16 years and above). 5) the

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 11 2021
Journal Name
Neuroquantology
Correlation of Vitamin D Level with Electrophysiological Findings and Clinical Grading in Carpal Tunnel Syndrome
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Carpal tunnel syndrome is a neurological disease that presented with paresthesias, pain, and numbness in the hand's median nerve compression. Vitamin D was assumed to affect both electrophysiological &clinical gradings, the study aims to assess the correlation between the deficiency of vitamin D and both electrophysiological and clinical gradings. This study was conducted in Ghazi Alhariri Hospital during the period from the first of November/2020 to the twenty-eighth of February/2021, fifty five individuals were referred to as Carpal tunnel syndrome patients, and compared to (55) control individuals, blood samples were withdrawn from the patients (3ml), centrifuged and kept in the freezer (-20°C) until the time of analysis of

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Optimum Dimensions of Hydraulic Structures and Foundation Using Genetic Algorithm coupled with Artificial Neural Network
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      A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs lengths and their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy. The optimization carried out is subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure aga

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The prevalence and antimicrobial resistance of Pseudomonas species in patients with chronic suppurative otitis media
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Background: Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is the result of an initial episode of acute otitis media and is characterized by a persistent discharge from the middle ear through a tympanic perforation for at least 2 weeks duration. It is an important cause of preventable hearing loss, particularly in the developing world.Objective: To get an overview on the bacterial ear infection profile in general and to assess the antibiotic resistance of Pseudomonal infection (PS) particularly since it is usually the commonest infection to cause otitis media and the most difficult to treat due to the problem of multi drug resistance..Methods: A cross sectional study was done which included 405 patients of CSOM patients, 196 (48%) case were mal

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Study on Double-Pass Solar Air Heater with and without using Phase Change Material
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In this paper, an experimental study was conducted to enhance the thermal performance of a double-pass solar air heater (SAH) using phase change material (PCM) for thermal storage at climatic conditions of Baghdad city - Iraq. The double-pass solar air heater integrated with thermal storage system was manufactured and tested to ensure that the air heating reserved after the absence of the sun. The rectangular cavity filled with paraffin wax was used as a latent heat storage and incorporated into the lower channel of solar air heater. Experiments were carried out to evaluate the charging and discharging characteristics of two similar designed solar air collectors with and without using phase change material at a constant

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 10 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Diagnosis and Treatment of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia with Carbon Dioxide Laser Therapy in Selected Patients
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Female infection with HPV (human papilla virus) has been established as an essential cause of CIN (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia). The danger of transformation from CIN to frank malignancy should be considered. Objective: The goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of CO2 laser vaporization of ectocervical lesion high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HGSIL). Patients and Methods: Four Female out of 150 affected with HGSIL lesions were submitted to CO2 laser vaporization and followed up in 4 months later, and 10 women with HGSIL lesion submitted to electrocautery diathermy for the comparison. Results: Among women treated by CO2 laser vaporization, 3 women had negative results (clear cervix), at 4 months follow up; o

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2012
Journal Name
International Journal Of Recent Scientific Research
DETECTION OF LTH, FSH AND LH HORMONE LEVEL IN PREGNANT WOMEN INFECTED WITH TOXOPLASMA GONDII
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Infection with the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii is widely prevalent in humans and animals. Infection with Toxoplasma may associate with miscarriage in many pregnant women due to infection. In this study, the level of lutetropic hormone (LTH), folliclestimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH) was measured in pregnant women suffering from toxoplasmosis using mini-VIDAS®technique. Results showed that pregnant women have high concentration of both LTH and FSH hormone(10.80 ± 6.53) ng/ml and (9.51 ± 2.40) μIU/ml respectively, while the concentration of LH hormone was lower than normal(4.49 ± 0.56) μIU/ml. Such finding is to suggest that infection with T. gondii is interfering with these hormones in pregnant women.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health
Endoscopic Partial Lateral Middle Turbinectomy versus middle Turbinat Trimming in Adult patients with Concha Bullosa
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Background: Concha bullosa is an anatomical variation which defined by pneumatizaton of middle turbinate that occurred with an incidence of (5 to 25%) in the normal population.It has the potential to cause crowding and obstruction of the middle meatus and nasal cavity. There are many surgical techniques which utilized for its management. Study goal: Is to compare the formation of adhesion between endoscopic partial lateral middle turbinectomy and middle turbinate trimming in cases of concha bullosa. Patients and methods: A prospectivecomparative clinical trial was performed in the ENT department at Al-Shahid Ghazi AL Hariri Hospital in Medical City over the period from September 2016 to August 2017. Fifty nine (59) patients {24 males

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