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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
International Journal Of Computer Applications
Concise Architecture of a Remote Network based Controller
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The development of microcontroller is used in monitoring and data acquisition recently. This development has born various architectures for spreading and interfacing the microcontroller in network environment. Some of existing architecture suffers from redundant in resources, extra processing, high cost and delay in response. This paper presents flexible concise architecture for building distributed microcontroller networked system. The system consists of only one server, works through the internet, and a set of microcontrollers distributed in different sites. Each microcontroller is connected through the Ethernet to the internet. In this system the client requesting data from certain side is accomplished through just one server that is in

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Asian Multicultural Research For Social Sciences Study
Remote Data Auditing in a Cloud Computing Environment
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In the current paradigms of information technology, cloud computing is the most essential kind of computer service. It satisfies the need for high-volume customers, flexible computing capabilities for a range of applications like as database archiving and business analytics, and the requirement for extra computer resources to provide a financial value for cloud providers. The purpose of this investigation is to assess the viability of doing data audits remotely inside a cloud computing setting. There includes discussion of the theory behind cloud computing and distributed storage systems, as well as the method of remote data auditing. In this research, it is mentioned to safeguard the data that is outsourced and stored in cloud serv

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Colonization and Civilization in Aimé Cesaire’s A Tempest
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This study deals with the concepts of Colonialism and Civilization in Aimé Cesaire’s A Tempest. The concern of this study is to discuss how postcolonial writers are continually re-writing the Western canonical works as a reaction to the European cultural hegemony. The Western representations of the black are products of specific moments and developments in history and culture. A Tempest reflects a certain historical moment in the decolonization process.

A Tempest is analysed to reveal the counter literary strategy used by Aimé Cesaire, and to disclose the reasons why re-writing and writing back are considered as vital and inescapable tasks. Shakespeare’s The Tempest, which deals with the

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Studying Sustainable Concrete Block Efficiency Production: A Review
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Worldwide, enormous amounts of waste cause major environmental issues, including scrap tires and plastic, and large waste, a consequence of the demolition of buildings, including crushed concrete, crushed clay bricks, and crushed thermo-stone. From that point, it’s possible to consider that the recycling processes for these materials and using them in the manufacturing field will reduce the adverse effects on the environment of these wastes and the consumption of natural resources. Sustainable concrete blocks can be considered as one of the products produced by using these materials as partial volume replacement of the coarse, fine aggregate, or cement content, considering their dry density, workability, absorption, co

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Quranic Words Referring to Lies A Media Study
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This research aims to invest qur›anic words referring to lie in media language. The researcher has chosen a set of qur›anic words functioning as «lie».
It is an attempt to review the media language which is used to make use of repetition of terms and templated which make it weak and ineffective language. The use of qur›anic texts and terms according to the semantic field for each topic will give this media language an opportunity for growth, development and stability.
This researcher identifies a number of words to study them in the light of their lexical meaning using the Dictionary of Language Standards by Ibn Fares as it focuses on the general meaning of the root language. He also uses the Dictionary of the Basis of Rhe

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal Of Social Studies And Humanities
A Cultural Window into obituaries of Iraqi Newspapers
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
a study of the womens collages in usa
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The study aims to identify the colleges women in the USA where he was browsing the Internet for five universities and sixty-two women's college located these colleges in 25 states only three general and other civil 51% supported by the churches and religious associations of various began its founding in Alqrnn eighteenth and continued in the nineteenth and twentieth and to provide an opportunity for women to complete higher education, while most men's colleges opened their doors to the admission of women and turned it on coeducation

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 21 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Formulation and Investigation of Lacidipine as a Nanoemulsions
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Many pharmaceutical molecules have solubility problems that until yet consist a hurdle that restricts their use in the pharmaceutical preparations. Lacidipine (LCDP) is a calcium-channel blocker with low aqueous solubility and bioavailability.

        Lipid dosage forms are attractive delivery systems for such hydrophobic drug molecules. Nanoemulsion (NE)  is one of the popular methods that has been used to solve the solubility problems of many drugs. LCDP was formulated as a NE utilizing triacetin as an oil phase, tween 80 and tween 60 as a surfactant and ethanol as a co-surfactant. Nine formulas were prepared, and different tests performed to ensure the stability of the NEs, such as thermodyna

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
FORMULATION OF ECONAZOLE NITRATE AS A TOPICAL SOLUTION
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Econazole nitrate (EN) is considered as the most effective agent for the treatment of all forms of
dermatomycosis caused by dermatophytes. This study was carried out to formulate a stable
Econazole nitrate solution for a topical use through preparation of different formulas and selected
the most suitable one. The results indicated that the use of propylene glycol and ethanol as a vehicle
for EN which is very slightly soluble in water gave amore stable formula as EN topical solution,
with a shelf life of about 3.15 years .The data also indicated that the light accelerated the
degradation of EN, while the type of container (glass or plastic) had no effect on the rate of drug.
The overall results of this study suggest t

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2007
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Lung Cancer in a Sample of Iraqi Patients
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Background: Lung cancer is responsible for the most
cancer deaths in both men and women throughout the
world. Deaths from lung cancer (160,440 in 2004,
according to the National Cancer Institute) exceed the
number of deaths from four other major cancers combined
(breast, colon, pancreatic and prostate).
Objective: To assess the behavior and the approaches of
lung cancer in a sample of Iraqi patients.
Methods: This descriptive retrospective study was
performed using the records of 390 patients proved to have
lung cancer that had attending the Thoracic Surgery
Department of Surgical Specialties Hospital-Medical City
\Baghdad for the period from January, 1st
, 2001 to
December, 31st
,2002.
Res

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