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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 06 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Applied Engineering And Technological Science (jaets)
Lightweight Block and Stream Cipher Algorithm: A Review
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Most of the Internet of Things (IoT), cell phones, and Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) applications need high speed in the execution and processing of data. this is done by reducing, system energy consumption, latency, throughput, and processing time. Thus, it will affect against security of such devices and may be attacked by malicious programs. Lightweight cryptographic algorithms are one of the most ideal methods Securing these IoT applications. Cryptography obfuscates and removes the ability to capture all key information patterns ensures that all data transfers occur Safe, accurate, verified, legal and undeniable.  Fortunately, various lightweight encryption algorithms could be used to increase defense against various at

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The economic effects of money laundering and the role of banking service in combat it: a prospective study of a sample
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Money laundering is consider a crime in legal perspective and aphenomenon of negative effects in economic and Social perspective for thevarious countries of the world by the diversity of their economies to make thebadly damaged in the banking service and its reputation in some cases may leadto bankruptcy of banks, and the fact that banks is one of the most importantcircles that revolve the illicit funds, Due to its branched the banking operations,speed and overlap and increase it's complicated with the progress of bankingoperations and the use of electronic services modern here's challenges atvarious levels between the application of the legislation to combat moneylaundering and between actual fact it must find ways and means of legislat

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study the Effect of annealing temperature on the Structure of a-Se and Electrical Properties of a-Se/c-Si Heterojunction
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In this work Study effect of annealing temperature on the Structure
of a-Se and electrical properties of a-Se/c-Si hetrojunction have been
studied.The hetrojunction fabricated by deposition of a-Se film on c-
Si using thermal evaporation.
Electrical properties of a-Se/ c-Si heterojunction include I-V
characteristics, in dark at different annealing temperature and C-V
characteristics are considered in the present work.
C-V characteristics suggested that the fabricated diode was
abrupt type, built in potential determined by extrapolation from
1/C2-V curve. The built - in potential (Vbi) for the Se/ Si System
was found to be increase from 1.21 to 1.62eV with increasing of
annealing temperature

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 03 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
A critical methodological study in abrogative,abrogated, in a book of (Zad AlTafseer) in Surah Al-Baqara in the holy Quraan.
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This research is a critical methodological  study deals with some Quranic verses abrogative,abrogated.

by Ibn al-Jawzi (may Allah have mercy on him) in his book (Tafseer Zad al-Maseer) inin Surah Al-Baqara the  in the holy Quraan.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Exploratory and Confirmatory Factorial Structure of Test-Wiseness Scale: A Field Study on a Sample of Students in Hama University
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The current research aims to recognize the exploratory and confirmatory factorial structure of the test-wiseness scale on a sample of Hama University students, using the descriptive method. Thus, the sample consists of (472) male and female students from the faculties of the University of Hama. Besides, Abu Hashem’s 50 item test-wiseness scale (2008) has been used. The validity and reliability of the items of the scale have also been verified, and six items have been deleted accordingly. The results of the exploratory factor analysis of the first degree have shown the presence of the following five acceptable factors: (exam preparation, test time management, question paper handling, answer sheet handling, and revision).  Moreover,

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
A Study of the Effect of Kaolin as a Fuel Oil Additive on the Corrosion Inhibition of Fireside Superheater Boiler Tubes
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The objective of the present study is to determine the effect of Kaolin as a fuel oil additive to minimize the fireside corrosion of superheater boiler tubes of ASTM designation (A213-T22) by increasing the melting point of the formed slag on the outside tubes surface, through the formation of new compounds with protective properties to the metal surface. The study included measuring corrosion rates at different temperatures with and without additive use with various periods of time, through crucible test method and weight loss technique.

      A mathematical model represents the relation between corrosion rate and the studied variables, is obtained using statistical regression analysis. Using this model,

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational citizenship behaviors under theory of servant leadership: A exploratory study in a sample of faculties of the University of Alqadisiya
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This study aimed to identify the role of servant leadership in promoting organizational citizenship behaviors in a sample of faculties of the University of Alqadisiya .It tried to answer several questions represented its problem.

 

 The most important questions are the followings:

1- Is there enough perception among administrative leaders in the aforementioned faculties toward the concept of servant leadership? And under what level?                                    &

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Characteristics of Environment in Contemporary Iraqi and Iranian Pottery A Comparative Study (Saad Shakir- Muhammad Mahdi) A Model: قحطان عدنان محمود
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The Iraqi and Iranian pottery has a significant role in the contemporary world pottery space, despite the fact that influences created those formulation, thus the researcher supposes that there is a relation between the potter and his environment within Iraq's environment and Iran's environment, which are similar at times and different at other times. The researcher, hence, found himself in front of a number of questions:
1- How much was the Iraqi potter inspired by the environment compared to the Iranian potter?
2- Has the Iraqi and Iranian pottery been really inspired by the environment items or there were modified metaphors?
The current research aims at (identifying the influential environmental characteristics in the Iraq

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Intellectual as an Alien: A Study of Henry James's The Beast in the Jungle and James Joyce's "A Painful Case"
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This research paper studies the alienation of the intellectuals in the modern novel through the study of two alienated characters, John Marcher in Henry James's The Beast in the Jungle, and Mr. Duffy in James's Joyce's "A Painful Case." As a result of the complexity of life in the industrial societies, the individuals, especially the intellectual ones, feel themselves unable to integrate into social life; they fear society and feel that it endangers their individuality and independence. Thus, these characters live on the fringe of the societ

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Simultaneous influences of hematocrit in the erythrocyte medium on erythrocyte aggregation and sedimentation: a kinetic study by a laser scattering technique
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The erythrocyte aggregation is an important physiological phenomenon in the circulation of blood. It is a basic characteristic of normal blood that plays a major role in the cardiovascular system, especially in the microcirculation. This study explained the kinetics of single cells rouleaux formation one- dimensional aggregate and three- dimensional aggregate, during simultaneous, and the effect of hematocrit on the process of aggregation and sedimentation. The present study was done on forty one healthy subjects. Laser light is passed through a well mixed sample of blood and the forward scattered light intensities recorded continuously. The samples were prepared with different hematocrit, (10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%). Increasing

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