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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
A Study of the Effect of Kaolin as a Fuel Oil Additive on the Corrosion Inhibition of Fireside Superheater Boiler Tubes
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The objective of the present study is to determine the effect of Kaolin as a fuel oil additive to minimize the fireside corrosion of superheater boiler tubes of ASTM designation (A213-T22) by increasing the melting point of the formed slag on the outside tubes surface, through the formation of new compounds with protective properties to the metal surface. The study included measuring corrosion rates at different temperatures with and without additive use with various periods of time, through crucible test method and weight loss technique.

      A mathematical model represents the relation between corrosion rate and the studied variables, is obtained using statistical regression analysis. Using this model,

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational citizenship behaviors under theory of servant leadership: A exploratory study in a sample of faculties of the University of Alqadisiya
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This study aimed to identify the role of servant leadership in promoting organizational citizenship behaviors in a sample of faculties of the University of Alqadisiya .It tried to answer several questions represented its problem.

 

 The most important questions are the followings:

1- Is there enough perception among administrative leaders in the aforementioned faculties toward the concept of servant leadership? And under what level?                                    &

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Characteristics of Environment in Contemporary Iraqi and Iranian Pottery A Comparative Study (Saad Shakir- Muhammad Mahdi) A Model: قحطان عدنان محمود
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The Iraqi and Iranian pottery has a significant role in the contemporary world pottery space, despite the fact that influences created those formulation, thus the researcher supposes that there is a relation between the potter and his environment within Iraq's environment and Iran's environment, which are similar at times and different at other times. The researcher, hence, found himself in front of a number of questions:
1- How much was the Iraqi potter inspired by the environment compared to the Iranian potter?
2- Has the Iraqi and Iranian pottery been really inspired by the environment items or there were modified metaphors?
The current research aims at (identifying the influential environmental characteristics in the Iraq

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Intellectual as an Alien: A Study of Henry James's The Beast in the Jungle and James Joyce's "A Painful Case"
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This research paper studies the alienation of the intellectuals in the modern novel through the study of two alienated characters, John Marcher in Henry James's The Beast in the Jungle, and Mr. Duffy in James's Joyce's "A Painful Case." As a result of the complexity of life in the industrial societies, the individuals, especially the intellectual ones, feel themselves unable to integrate into social life; they fear society and feel that it endangers their individuality and independence. Thus, these characters live on the fringe of the societ

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Simultaneous influences of hematocrit in the erythrocyte medium on erythrocyte aggregation and sedimentation: a kinetic study by a laser scattering technique
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The erythrocyte aggregation is an important physiological phenomenon in the circulation of blood. It is a basic characteristic of normal blood that plays a major role in the cardiovascular system, especially in the microcirculation. This study explained the kinetics of single cells rouleaux formation one- dimensional aggregate and three- dimensional aggregate, during simultaneous, and the effect of hematocrit on the process of aggregation and sedimentation. The present study was done on forty one healthy subjects. Laser light is passed through a well mixed sample of blood and the forward scattered light intensities recorded continuously. The samples were prepared with different hematocrit, (10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%). Increasing

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Experimental Investigation of the Mechanical and Structural Properties of a Functionally Graded Material by Adding Alumina Nanoparticles Using A Centrifugal Technique
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In this work, functionally graded materials were synthesized by centrifugal technique at different
volume fractions 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2% Vf with a rotation speed of 1200 rpm and a constant rotation time, T
= 6 min . The mechanical properties were characterized to study the graded and non-graded nanocomposites
and the pure epoxy material. The mechanical tests showed that graded and non-graded added alumina
(Al2O3) nanoparticles enhanced the effect more than pure epoxy. The maximum difference in impact strength
occurred at (FGM), which was loaded from the rich side of the nano-alumina where the maximum value was
at 1% Vf by 133.33% of the sample epoxy side. The flexural strength and Young modulus of the fu

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Detection, purification and characterization of a bacteriocin produced by Bacillus subtilis NK16 exhibits a significant antimicrobial activity against clinical Staphylococcus spp.
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Bacteriocin is an important antimicrobial peptide that can be used in industrial and medical fields due to its characteristics of antibacterial, food preservation and anticancer activities. Fifty isolates of Bacillus sp were collected from different soil samples which were already recognized via morphological and biochemical identification process. The isolates were screened for bacteriocin production effective against Staphylococcus spp in order to select the highest producing isolate. The isolate NK16 showed the maximum bacteriocin production (80 AU/ml) which was further characterized as Bacillus subtilis NK 16 through using API identification system (API 20E and API 50CHB). Then, next step was to detect the optimal conditions for maximum

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 18 2023
Journal Name
Ieee Access
A New Imputation Technique Based a Multi-Spike Neural Network to Handle Missing Data in the Internet of Things Network (IoT)
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Aesthetic of the Textual Interferences in the Poetry of the Ghawani's" A Miracle Nice of your Imagination as a symbol"
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     إنّ التّأمّل في الدّراسات الأدبيّة النّقديّة الحديثة الّتي تنظر إلى النّصّ أنّه لوحة تتشكّل من مجموعة تداخلات نصّيّة سابقة للنصّ المُنتج أو مُعاصرة له، تدفع القارئ إلى الغوص في أعماق النّصوص وتحليلها والكشف عن الآليّات والإجراءات الّتي اعتمدت في إنتاجه، وإظهار الجماليّات الفنّيّة التي شكلت في مُجملها كائنا حيّا يُعبّر عن حالات إنسانيّة مُستمرة الحدوث رغم تقادم الأزمان.

فالبحث هذا يعمد

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De Psicologia Del Ejercicio Y El Deportethis Link Is Disabled.,
THE EFFECT OF EXERCISES WITHIN A FACTORY HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE IN REDUCING THE DEGREE OF PAIN IN A SAMPLE OF BACK PATIENTS
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