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jeasiq-1563
Comparison Between Ordinary Methods (LS,IV) and Robust Methods (2SWLS,LTS,RA) to estimate the Parameters of ARX(1,1,1) Model for Electric Loads
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Abstract:

The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers ​​that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators  is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good  estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of the Autoregressive with exogenous variable (ARX) model with the order of (1,1,1) using real data containing outliers, the order (1,1,1) has been used based on a number of criteria for determining the rank, which were explained in the thesis under construction. The study showed that the method employed The Least Trimmed Squares (LTS) method is the best method of estimation. The comparison was done using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Expected Error Percentag (EEP), A test was also carried out to ascertain the accuracy of the model reached and then used to predict future values.                                                                                    

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Publication Date
Sun May 17 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Numerical Treatment of First Order Volterra Integro-Differential Equation Using Non-Polynomial Spline Functions
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The approach given in this paper leads to numerical methods to find the approximate solution of volterra integro –diff. equ.1st kind. First, we reduce it from integro VIDEs to integral VIEs of the 2nd kind by using the reducing theory, then we use two types of Non-polynomial spline function (linear, and quadratic). Finally, programs for each method are written in MATLAB language and a comparison between these two types of Non-polynomial spline function is made depending on the least square errors and running time. Some test examples and the exact solution are also given.

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Publication Date
Fri May 20 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Potential Influence of Parasitic Diseases as Protective Agents from Infection with Pandemic COVID-19
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Parasitic diseases can affect infection with COVID-19 obviously, as protective agents, or by reducing severity of this viral infection. This current review mentions the common symptoms between human parasites and symptoms of COVID-19, and explains the mechanism actions of parasites, which may prevent or reduce severity of this viral infection. Pre-existing parasitic infections provide prohibition against pathogenicity of COVID-19, by altering the balance of gut microbiota that can vary the immune response to this virus infection.  

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Study of Piled Raft Foundation in Non-Homogeneous Soil Using Finite Element Method
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This paper analyzes a piled-raft foundation on non-homogeneous soils with variable layer depth percentages. The present work aims to perform a three-dimensional finite element analysis of a piled-raft foundation subjected to vertical load using the PLAXIS 3D software. Parametric analysis was carried out to determine the effect of soil type and initial layer thickness. The parametric study showed that increasing the relative density from 30 % to 80 % of the upper sand layer and the thickness of the first layer has led to an increase in the ultimate load and a decrease in the settlement of piled raft foundations for the cases of sand over weak soil.  In clay over weak soil, the ultimate load of the piled raft foundation w

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Galvanic Corrosion of Carbon Steel -Stainless Steel Couple in Sulfuric Acid under Flow Conditions
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Galvanic corrosion of stainless steel 316 (SS316) and carbon steel (CS) coupled in 5% wt/v sulfuric acid solution at agitation velocity was investigated. The galvanic behavior of coupled metals was also studied using zero resistance ammeter (ZRA) method. The effects of agitation velocity, temperature, and time on galvanic corrosion current and loss in weight of both metals in both free corrosion and galvanic corrosion were investigated. The trends of open circuit potential (OCP) of each metal and galvanic potential (Eg) of the couple were, also, determined. Results showed that SS316 was cathodic relative to CS in galvanic couple and its OCP was much more positive than that of CS for all investigated ranges of

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
An Investigation Study of Thinning Distribution in Single Point Incremental Forming Using FEM Analysis
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Single Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) is a forming technique of sheet material based on layered manufacturing principles. The sheet part is locally deformed through horizontal slices. The moving locus of forming tool (called as toolpath) in these slices constructed to the finished part was performed by the CNC technology. The toolpath was created directly from CAD model of final product. The forming tool is a Ball-end forming tool, which was moved along the toolpath while the edges of sheet material were clamped rigidly on fixture.

This paper presented an investigation study of thinning distribution of a conical shapes carried out by incremental forming and the validation of finite element method to evaluate the limits of the p

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectrophotometric micro determination of drug promethazine hydrochloride in some pharmaceutical by chelating with Rhodium
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The drug promethazine hydrochloride (PRZH) forms with rhodium (II) a colored chelate (?max = 472 nm) complex at (pH = 2.1) which is extractable with benzyl alcohol as organic solvent. Under the appropriate experimental conditions a calibration plot was set up from which some analytical parameter were derived and deduced by regression. Standard addition procedure was also adopted. It has been estimated that the concentration of the drug PRZH to be 24.89 mg per unit and 24.19 mg per unit for both calibrations. Under optimal conditions, the developed method has been achieved the following characteristics: LDR (30 – 150 µg ml-1 ) PRZH , RSD % ( 0.6 – 2.47 ) , sandell sensitivity( 0.0844 µg. cm -2 ) , LOD ( 1.66 µgml-1 ) , recovery

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Analysis of Magnetorheological Normally Close Directional Control Valve: Magnetorheological normally close directional control valve
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This valve is intended for use in valves for steering movement, using the qualities of the Magneto-rheological (MR) fluid to regulate the fluid, direct contact without the utilization of moving parts like a spool, a connection between electric flux, and fluid power was made, The simulation was done to employ the" finite element method of magnetism (FEMM)" to arrive at the best design. This software is used for magnetic resonance valve finite element analysis. The valve's best performance was obtained by using a closed directional control valve in the normal state normally closed (NC) MR valve, with simulation results revealing the optimum magnetic flux density in the absence of a current and the shedding condition, as well as the optimum

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 08 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of en-masse retraction using microimplant versus conventional techniques: An in vitro study
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Background: The study aimed to investigate the effect of different techniques of en masse retraction on the vertical and sagittal position, axial inclination, rate of space closure, and type of movement of maxillary central incisor. Materials and methods: A typodont simulation system was used (CL II division 2 malocclusion). Three groups were used group 1(N=10, T-loop), group 2(N=10, Time-Saving loop), and group 3(N=10, Microimplant). Photographs were taken before and after retraction and measurements were made using Autodesk AutoCAD© software 2010. Kruskal-Wallis one-way analyses of variance and Mann-Whitney U test (p?0.05) were used. Results: The rate of space closure showed no significant difference among the three groups (p?0.05), whi

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Measurement of Alpha Emitters Concentration in Tomato Fruits Using CR – 39 Plastic Track Detector
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Our country suffered from pollution translation as a result to the wars events, so, it is necessary to measure the amount of radiation in the fields that are of indirect contact with human life and health. The main aim of the present work is to measure the concentration of alpha emitters in tomato fruits collected from different farms in Al – Basra governorate in the south of Iraq. Nuclear track detectors of type CR – 39 are used as a detection device and Can technique as a detection technique. Results show that the maximum concentration recorded is sample no.7 of site Al – Rafidhya which was equal to (6.9621 ± 0.111) ppm and sample no.1 of site Lothan with concentration equals to (4.9236 ± 0.117) ppm. The minimum concentratio

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Factors Affecting Birth Space Interval of Women Who Are Attending Primary Health Care Centers
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Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the factors affecting birth space interval in a sample of women.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study conducted in primary health centers in Al-Tahade and Al- Shak Omar in
Baghdad city. Data were collected by direct interview using questionnaire especially prepared for the study.
Sample size was (415) women in age group (20-40) years who were chosen randomly.
Results: Analysis of data shows highest rate of women (31.8%) had a birth space interval of (8-12) months
followed by (26.7%) had a birth space interval of (19-24) months, (20.2%) had a birth space interval of (>24)
months and (16.1%) had a birth space interval of (13-18) months respectively, while lower rate of w

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