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jeasiq-1563
Comparison Between Ordinary Methods (LS,IV) and Robust Methods (2SWLS,LTS,RA) to estimate the Parameters of ARX(1,1,1) Model for Electric Loads
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Abstract:

The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers ​​that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators  is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good  estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of the Autoregressive with exogenous variable (ARX) model with the order of (1,1,1) using real data containing outliers, the order (1,1,1) has been used based on a number of criteria for determining the rank, which were explained in the thesis under construction. The study showed that the method employed The Least Trimmed Squares (LTS) method is the best method of estimation. The comparison was done using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Expected Error Percentag (EEP), A test was also carried out to ascertain the accuracy of the model reached and then used to predict future values.                                                                                    

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation Study of Mass Transfer Coefficient in Slurry Bubble Column Reactor Using Neural Network
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The objective of this study was to develop neural network algorithm, (Multilayer Perceptron), based correlations for the prediction overall volumetric mass-transfer coefficient (kLa), in slurry bubble column for gas-liquid-solid systems. The Multilayer Perceptron is a novel technique based on the feature generation approach using back propagation neural network. Measurements of overall volumetric mass transfer coefficient were made with the air - Water, air - Glycerin and air - Alcohol systems as the liquid phase in bubble column of 0.15 m diameter. For operation with gas velocity in the range 0-20 cm/sec, the overall volumetric mass transfer coefficient was found to decrease w

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Biological effects of Chitin synthesis inhibitor Applaud (buprofezin) on Culex quinquefasciatus in polluted water
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The present study was carried out to evaluate the biological effects of chitin synthesis inhibitor, applaud (Buprofezin); on immature stages of mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus. The study showed that the chitin synthesis inhibitor applaud caused biological effects represented in molting failure of larva to subsequent phase or to pupal stage, pupa to adults and mortality. The percentage of the effects differed depending on concentrations used; significantly increased with increasing of concentrations. Also the failure of molting significantly increased compared with mortality at low concentrations and inversely at high concentrations, due to lethal effect of buprofezin at high concentrations. The study of the accumulative death of the fir

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Viscosity Reduction of Sharqi Baghdad Heavy Crude Oil Using Different Polar Hydrocarbons, Oxygenated Solvents
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This work studied the facilitation of the transportation of Sharqi Baghdad heavy crude oil characterized with high viscosity 51.6 cSt at 40 °C, low API 18.8, and high asphaltenes content 7.1 wt.%, by reducing its viscosity from break down asphaltene agglomerates using different types of hydrocarbon and oxygenated polar solvents such as toluene, methanol, mix xylenes, and reformate. The best results are obtained by using methanol because it owns a high efficiency to reduce viscosity of crude oil to 21.1 cSt at 40 °C. Toluene, xylenes and reformate decreased viscosity to 25.3, 27.5 and 28,4 cSt at 40 °C, respectively. Asphaltenes content decreased to 4.2 wt. % by using toluene at 110 °C. And best improvement in API of the heavy crude o

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Evaluation of Heavy Metal Accumulation in Sawa Lake Sediments, Southern Iraq using Magnetic Study
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Heavy metal contamination comprises a great concern in the environment. A magnetic study combined with heavy metal analyses was performed in the Sawa Lake in Al-Muthanna governorate (southern Iraq). Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cr, Fe, Ni, As and Pb) have been measured and magnetic susceptibility (χ) of sediment samples collected from the lake bottom was calculated.

The results confirmed that a cement plant, which is located less than two kilometers away from the lake has no contamination levels on the lake’s sediments. No enhancement in the magnetic susceptibility was observed. X-ray florescence (XRF) was performed for heavy metal analyses.

Spatial variations of χ with the mean value of 4.58 x

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation of Free Convection from an Inclined Heated Thin Plate in a Square Enclosure
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Simulation of free convection heat transfer in a square enclosure induced by heated thin plate is represented numerically. All  the enclosure walls have constant temperature lower than the plate’s temperature. The flow is assumed to be two-dimensional. The discretized equations were solved stream function, vorticity, and energy equations by finite difference method using explicit technique and Successive Over- Relaxation method. The study was performed for different values of Rayleigh number ranging from 103 to 105 for different angle position of heated thin plate(0°, 45°, 90°). Air was chosen as a working fluid (Pr = 0.71). Aspect ratio of center of plate to the parallel left wall A2

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 24 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Local Study of blaCTX-M genes detection in Proteus spp. by using PCR technique
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In this study, 25 clinical isolates of Proteus spp. were collected from urine, wounds and burns specimens from different hospitals in Baghdad city, all isolates were identified by using different bacteriological media, biochemical assays and Vitek-2 system. It was found that 15 (60%) isolates were identifies as Proteus mirabilis and 10 (40 %) isolates were Proteus vulgaris. The susceptibility of P. mirabilis and P. vulgaris isolates towards cefotaxime was (66.6 %) and (44.4 %) respectively; while the susceptibility of P. mirabilis and P. vulgaris isolates towards ceftazidime was (20%). Extended spectrum β-lactamses producing Proteus was (30.7 %). DNA of 10 isolates of P. mirabilis and 4 isolates of P. vulgaris were extracted and detecti

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A study of Soil Invertebrates community in a Date - Palm plantation in Baghdad, Iraq
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Soil invertebrates community an important role as part of essential food chain and responsible for the decomposition in the soil, helps soil aeration , nutrients recycling and increase agricultural production by providing the essential elements necessary for photosynthesis and energy flow in ecosystems.The aim of the present study was to investigate the soil invertebrates community in one of the date palms plantation in Aljaderia district South of Baghdad, , and their relationships with some physical and chemical properties of the soil , as Five randomly distributed replicates of soil samples were collected monthly. Invertebrates samples were sorted from the soil with two methods, direct method to isolate large invertebrates and indirec

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Heliyon
Toward liveable commercial streets: A case study of Al-Karada inner street in Baghdad
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Density functional theory study of molecular structure, Electronic properties, UV–Vis spectra on coumarin102.
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The various properties of the ground and excited electronic states of coumarins 102 using density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) was calculated by the B3LYP density functional model with 6-31G(d,p) basis set by Gaussian 09 W program. Spectral characteristics of coumarin102 have been probed into by methods of experimental UV-visible, and quantum chemistry. The UV spectrum was measured in methanol. The optimized structures, total energies, electronic states (HOMO- LUMO), energy gap, ionization potentials, electron affinities, chemical potential, global hardness, softness, global electrophilictity, and dipole moment were measured. We find good agreement between experimental data of UV spectrum and

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Ecological Aesthetics of Industrial Product in Urban Design: جاسم خزعل العقيلي -علي غازي مطر
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    The research addressed the ecological impact of the industrial product as one of the basic aesthetic elements in urban design. The research discussed the nature of the overall ecosystems of the industrial product in urban spaces, and the type of impact they have on each other. The discussion of impacts started from the identification of cognitive and non-cognitive viewpoints in the vision of ecological aesthetics, passing through the inputs of cognitive systems that see that the ecosystem made of the urban space with the existence of the industrial product as one of its constituents, are in fact systems  based on functional symmetry   between urban space design and the  design of the industrial prod

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