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Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values ​​in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use some of the quality tools to improve the health service: Comparative research between Baghdad's and Yarmouk hospital educational
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This research aims to improve the provided health service level inside Baghdad hospitals and the Yarmouk educational, as well as to shed light on the reality of the health service and the quality within the major operations room in both hospitals, as the operations room represent the research community, as was the use of some quality tools Pareto and Ishikawa diagram to measure and assess the level of quality provided, and include research problem to find out what are the problems and obstacles facing the process of improving quality in both hospitals, and whether there are scientifically accurate method to assess the quality of health service in Baghdad's Yarmouk hospital and educational . Where the researcher h

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality with practical application
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In this paper  has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi-objectives probabilistic Aggregate production planning with practical application
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In this research, has been to building a multi objective Stochastic Aggregate Production Planning model for General al Mansour company Data with Stochastic  demand under changing of market and uncertainty environment in aim to draw strong production plans.  The analysis to derive insights on management issues regular and extra labour costs and the costs of maintaining inventories and good policy choice under the influence medium and optimistic adoption of the model of random has adoption form and had adopted two objective functions total cost function (the core) and income and function for a random template priority compared with fixed forms with objective function and the results showed that the model of two phases wit

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between Process Control Charts and Fuzzy Multinomial Control Charts with Practical Appliance
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     The control charts are one of the scientific technical statistics tools that will be used to control of production and always contained from three lines  central line and upper, lower lines to control quality of production and represents set of numbers so finally the operating productivity under control or nor than depending on the actual observations. Some times to calculating the control charts are not accurate and not confirming, therefore the Fuzzy Control Charts are using instead of Process Control Charts so this method is more sensitive, accurate and economically for assisting decision maker to control the operation system as early time. In this project will be used set data fr

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Aggregate production planning using linear programming with practical application
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The study aims at building a mathematical model for the aggregate production planning for Baghdad soft drinks company. The study is based on a set of aggregate planning strategies (Control of working hours, storage level control strategy) for the purpose of exploiting the resources and productive capacities available in an optimal manner and minimizing production costs by using (Matlab) program. The most important finding of the research is the importance of exploiting during the available time of production capacity. In the months when the demand is less than the production capacity available for investment. In the subsequent months when the demand exceeds the available energy and to minimize the use of overti

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 13 2012
Journal Name
Kut Journal For Economic And Administrative Sciences
Using Different Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Probability Death Density Function with Application
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In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimates for parameter ( ) of two parameter's Weibull are studied, as well as white estimators and (Bain & Antle) estimators, also Bayes estimator for scale parameter ( ), the simulation procedures are used to find the estimators and comparing between them using MSE. Also the application is done on the data for 20 patients suffering from a headache disease.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 29 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Simulation Technique to Estimate the Parameters of Generalized Exponential Rayleigh Model
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     The paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM),  and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Semi parametric Estimators for Quantile Model via LASSO and SCAD with Missing Data
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In this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
identifying the reasons of electronic smoking spreading (VAPING) in the society with practical application using Analytical Factors
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We have investigated in this research, the contents of the electronic cigarette (Viber) and the emergence of the phenomenon of electronic smoking (vibing) were discussed, although the topic of smoking is one of the oldest topics on which many articles and research have been conducted, electronic smoking has not been studied according to statistical scientific research, we tried in this research to identify the concept of electronic smoking to sample the studied data and to deal with it in a scientific way. This research included conducting a statistical analysis using the factor analysis of a sample taken randomly from some colleges in Bab Al-medium in Baghdad with a size of (70) views where  (КМО) and a (bartlett) tests

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian methods to estimate sub - population
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The aim of the research is to estimate the hidden population. Here، the number of drug users in Baghdad was calculated for the male age group (15-60) years old ، based on the Bayesian models. These models are used to treat some of the bias in the Killworth method Accredited in many countries of the world.

Four models were used: random degree، Barrier effects، Transmission bias، the first model being random، an extension of the Killworth model، adding random effects such as variance and uncertainty Through the size of the personal network، and when expanded by adding the fact that the respondents have different tendencies، the mixture of non-random variables with random to produce

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