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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 22 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigating the Histological Changes in Heart, Lung, Liver and Kidney of Male Albino Mice Treated with Ivabradine
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            The present study aimed to investigate the histological changes of heart, lung, liver and kidney which caused by different concentrations (10, 20 and 40 mg/kg) of Ivabradine. Results of the study revealed some histological changes represented by aggregation of the lymphocytes around respiratory bronchioles of the lung. In the liver, the drug caused hepatocyte necrosis and infiltration of the lymphocytes. In Kidney, there are no histopathological modifications in the tissue after the animals treated with 10 mg\kg of Ivabradine. When the animals treated with Ivabradine drug at 20mg/kg of bw, dose showed vascular congestion between myocardial fibers of heart. Emphysematous c

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Vigilance and strategic role in improving the level of nursing services / Applied Research in Ghazi al-Hariri Hospital
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The current research aims to focus on strategic vigilance dimensions and contained (environmental vigilance, technological vigilance, competitive vigilance, vigilance marketing) to improve nursing services, which include a) the quality, timeliness, problem-solving and decision-making, relationships with others, leadership skills) and measure the degree link and influence between strategic vigilance in the hospital respondent and improve nursing service that the problem of the research lies in the weakness of strategic plans and health organizations in general and the hospital surveyed (martyr Ghazi al-Hariri), in particular, the lack of awareness of the hospital researched strategy vigilant management to improve nursing services,

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
TECHNIQES OF SURREALISM: A STUDY IN TWO NOVELS BY THOMAS PYNCHON, V. AND THE CRYING OF LOT 49
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Surrealism is a twentieth-century literary and artistic movement oriented toward the liberation of the mind. Surrealism is a reaction to the philosophy of rationalism which was believed to be the cause of the disaster of World War I. It emphasizes the expression of the imagination as revealed in dreams and presented without conscious control, the unexpected juxtapositions of objects, the withdrawal of the self, and the exploitation of chance effects.
Surrealism began in Paris in the early 1920s, as Europe emerged from the devastation of World War I. A group of writers, artists, and filmmakers, led by the poet André Breton, adopted the word surréaliste (meaning, roughly, "super-real") as a label for their artistic activities. Influen

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Assessing the Impact of reformation in wise Administration of Ruling and constant development : A study of Arab Political
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The research has been talked on specific an important notions concerning with the dimensions of effectiveness of good governance and sustainable development inside all Arab states, So that the scientific article reflected the role of investments in various sections of institutional business by draw attention toward different projects about analyzing the whole political reality according to the standard indications of political and social stability on the regional level and international aspects. Therefore, the study resembled scientific contains and the dimensions of political reform and administrative overhauling within governmental system in order to achieve all raw objectives for sustainable development. All international and

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the spectroscopic characteristics of Rhodamine B Dye in Ethanol and Methanol mixture and Calculation the Quantum Efficiency
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The effect of ethanol and methanol solvent, and their mixture has been studied on the absorption and fluorescence spectra of laser dye Rhodamine B at concentration of (10-4) Molar at room temperature. The molar absorption coefficient has been determined for mixture which was (3.223) at wave number (18181.8 cm-1), Also the Quantum Efficiency of the two solvents (ethanol and methanol) and their mixture have been calculated ,which was for mixture spectrum (38.94%) and it was larger comparing with other and solvents. The characteristics of spectrum has been determined by calculating (??) of absorption spectrum for the solvents and its mixture at maximum wave number ( ) cm-1 depending on solvent polarity and the transitions between molecular ene

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
THE EFFECT OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL TREATMENTS ON IMPROVING THE NUTRITIVE VALUE OF CORN COBS AND WILD REED
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This study was conducted in Animal Resources Department , College of Agriculture to estimate the effect of chemical and biological treatments to improve the nutritive value of poor quality roughages ( corn cobs and wild reed ) . The feeds were treated chemically with 4% NaoH solution ,whereas Aspergillus niger was used to ferment corn cobs and wild reed samples . The chemical analysis showed that protein percentages of corn cobs and wild reed was increased significantly (P<0.05) from 6.05% to 10.51% and 17.70% and from 3.10 %to 6.50% and 9.96% for both chemical and biological treatments respectively. The crude fiber percentages decreased significantly (P<0.05) from 29.19% and 26.10% to 23.60% and 20.10% for chemical treatment and was 20

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of temperature and density of different host spam in efficiency and performance life of the intruder
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Studied competence spam to malicious moth figs at temperatures and Kagafat host different results showed that female intruder, despite their ability to shell larvae host and when densities of different, but it is able to lay eggs at a temperature of 14 + or -1 and finally urged the efficiency spam to malicious affected heavily host and that the greater the intensity of the host spam increased efficiency and its performance life

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 24 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Differential Equations
The Impact of Media Coverage and Curfew on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Model: Stability and Bifurcation
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In this study, the spreading of the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is formulated mathematically. The objective of this study is to stop or slow the spread of COVID-19. In fact, to stop the spread of COVID-19, the vaccine of the disease is needed. However, in the absence of the vaccine, people must have to obey curfew and social distancing and follow the media alert coverage rule. In order to maintain these alternative factors, we must obey the modeling rule. Therefore, the impact of curfew, media alert coverage, and social distance between the individuals on the outbreak of disease is considered. Five ordinary differential equations of the first-order are used to represent the model. The solution properties of the system ar

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 09 2022
Journal Name
Technium Social Sciences Journal
The layered structure of the clause in English and Arabic ditransitive verbs: A Role and Reference Grammar Perspective
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This paper presents the syntactic dimension of ditransitive verbs in terms of the universal theory of Role and Reference Grammar (RRG). This theory is syntactic in nature, but it also covers the semantic as well as the pragmatic aspects of any linguistic phenomenon. It assumes a universal framework through which syntactic constructions can be analyzed. However, the morphological structure that each language enjoys renders the universal treatment more complicated and can question the universal nature of such a theory. In this paper, an attempt is made to check if the universal tenet of the theory is maintained over two typologically different languages: English and Arabic in respect of the way that double-object constructions (DOCs)

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 12 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Current Engineering And Technology
The Effect of Sb Dopant and Annealing Temperature on the Structural and Optical Properties of GeSe Thin Films
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The pure and Sb doped GeSe thin films have been prepared by thermal flash evaporation technique. Both the structural and optical measurement were carried out for as deposited and annealed films at different annealing temperatures.XRD spectra revealed that the all films have one significant broad amorphous peak except for pure GeSe thin film which annealed at 573 K, it has sharp peak belong to orthorhombic structure nearly at 2θ=33o. The results of the optical studies showed that the optical transition is direct and indirect allowed. The energy gap in general increased with increasing annealing temperature and decreased with increase the ratio of Sb dopant. The optical parameters such as refractive index, extinction coefficient and real and

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