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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of progressive income tax on inflation in Iraq for the period from 1995 to 2020 : applied research
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                Inflation is one of the important issues that the economic authorities in all countries of the world care about, where the loss of money for its function is one of the most important and largest inflationary effects that this phenomenon leaves on the economy, and Iraq, like other countries, has had its share of the problem of inflation for a long time due to the circumstances that He went through it, whether it was the wars he fought or the economic blockade that was imposed on him in the nineties of the last century. Economically, the problem of inflation is addressed through the use of fiscal policy tools, including tax increases in order to abso

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Translation & Linguistics
TO THE QUESTION ABOUT THE USE OF METAPHORS IN THE CREATION OF ART (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE STORY BY D. RUBINA "YOU AND ME UNDER THE PEACH CLOUDS")
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The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors when creating the image of the main character of the story by D. Rubina "You and me under the peach clouds" - a pet, a dog named Kondraty. Through metaphorization, the image of the dog is filled by the author with purely human qualities, thus passing into the category of a full member of the family. The article is a continuation of the study of the work of D. I. Rubina.

Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Audit of accounting disclosure for potential liabilities and contingent obligations In light of the Corona pandemic and its reflection on the auditor's opinion: Applied research in the National Insurance Company
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Abstract:

                The research aims to identify how to audit potential liabilities and contingent liabilities in light of the pandemic and its reflection on the auditor's report. The research problem is represented by the complexity of the process of checking potential liabilities and contingent liabilities in insurance companies, which was negatively reflected in the auditor's neutral technical opinion. The researchers hypothesize that auditing potential liabilities and contingent liabilities in light of the Corona pandemic is positively reflected in the auditor's report. The research concludes that the process of checking potential liabilities and contingent liabilities is

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The US-Iranian dispute and its repercussions on Iraq After 2003
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Receipt date: 8/8/2020 acceptance date: 9/11/2020 Publication date: 31/12/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

           The American-Iranian relations have been characterized by tensions since the arrival of the guardian jurist regime in Iran to leadership in 1979, as it was considered a turning point not only in the cont

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Height-to-Length Ratio Effect on the Response of Unreinforced Masonry Wall Subjected to Vertical Load Using Detailed-Micro Modeling Approach
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This paper aimed to investigate the effect of the height-to-length ratio of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls when loaded by a vertical load. The finite element (FE) method was implemented for modeling and analysis of URM wall. In this paper, ABAQUS, FE software with implicit solver was used to model and analysis URM walls subjected to a vertical load. In order to ensure the validity of Detailed Micro Model (DMM) in predicting the behavior of URM walls under vertical load, the results of the proposed model are compared with experimental results. Load-displacement relationship of the proposed numerical model is found of a good agreement with that of the published experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curve obtained fro

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The semantics of terms in terms of inclusiveness when Imam Ibn Hajar al-Askalani (d. 852 e) in his book Fath al-Bari: Door of worship - Practical models
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Praise be to Allaah.
My research has included the following: The field of application of semantics when fundamentalists are the book and the Sunnah. Imam Ibn Hajar agreed with the majority of fundamentalists that what is meant from the year (one word denotes one side on two things onwards), and agreed that the significance of the year specific to the rest of its members is not a definite and definite formulas of the public has the singular known as (the) Astragharism, and the plural known as ( The nationality stating that dumping, pluralism is defined as (add), and nakra, if it occurs in the context of the condition, denial and prohibition, the names of the condition, the connected names, and the word (all - all). And the year in whic

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
The Speed and Direction of the Ball's Rotation and its Relationship to the Accuracy of the Front and Rear Side Longitudinal Blow in Wheelchair Tennis Players.
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The study aimed to identify the relationship between the speed and direction of the ball's rotation in the accuracy of the front and rear side longitudinal blow in wheelchair tennis players. The descriptive approach wasused in the manner of correlations to suit the nature of the problem to be studied. The research community identified the 32 players aged18 and over, and the search sample was selected from players with a local classification registered with the 2020 Wheelchair Ground Tennis Federation (2020) in the intentional manner of 8 players, using Smart Tennis Sensor technology to measure the speed and direction of the ball and test the accuracy of the front and rear side longitudinalstraightstrike. She conducted the reconnaissance exp

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Factors that predict mortality rate in biliary atresia
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Background: B.A is a relatively rare obstructive condition of the bile ducts causing neonatal jaundice. The etiology is unknown but is the result of a progressive obliterative process of variable extent.  If not treated, B.A is fatal within the first 2 years of life.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze & discuss the impact of many patients' factors on short-term outcome of patients with B.A who underwent Kasai operation in ou

Fac Med Baghdad

2014; Vol.56, No.2

Received: Feb. 2014

Accepted March. 2014

 

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the independence of the auditor to practice accounting conservatism Applied research in the financial sector companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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The study aims to verify the independence of auditors working in companies and offices of the Iraqi audit, and measure the level of accounting conservatism in the financial statements of banks and insurance companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as a statement after the independence of the auditor on accounting conservatism in the financial statements of banks and insurance companies listed on the market Iraq Stock Exchange, as it has been measuring the independence of the auditor using the survey form was auditors working in the Iraqi audit firms were measured the level of accounting conservatism for companies sample using a form( Basu) was a statement after variables through the use of statistical models in a mann

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Construction Time-Cost Optimization Modeling Using Ant Colony Optimization
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In the field of construction project management, time and cost are the most important factors to be considered in planning every project, and their relationship is complex. The total cost for each project is the sum of the direct and indirect cost. Direct cost commonly represents labor, materials, equipment, etc.
Indirect cost generally represents overhead cost such as supervision, administration, consultants, and interests. Direct cost grows at an increasing rate as the project time is reduced from its original planned time. However, indirect cost continues for the life of the project and any reduction in project time means a reduction in indirect cost. Therefore, there is a trade-off between the time and cost for completing construc

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