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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Limitation of liability and reinsurance and its role in increasing production insurance: بحث أستطلاعي في شركة التامين العراقية العامة
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The liability limit liability limit and reinsurance re factors insurance are important in influencing the achievement of company's competitive goals and achieve success and excellence in the market and because the limit of liability and reinsurance aimed to increase output with the stability of inputs leading to increased insurance business and increase profits. The study was based on two variables presidents interact with each other to form the intellectual and philosophical framework has two ( the limit of liability and reinsurance ) . The study was launched from a problem expressed by a number of targeted questions answered from the elucidation of theoretical philosophy and intellectual goals of these variables and highlight the impor

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Monetary Policy Management of the Money Supply to Interest rates in Iraqi Economy for the period 2004-2011
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The results show the inability to apply the Taylor rule within inflation and GDP Gaps because the monetary behave is elated from the Iraqi economy.

When applying the Taylor rule to exchange rate with the inflation and the output gap, the results do not match the nominal price announced by the central thing, which proves the lack of commitment by the Central Bank by using the Taylor rule, whether short-run interest rate or exchange rate (Nominal Anchor),  so it did not stay to the Iraqi Central Bank only using the principle of Taylor with the expected inflation rate below the level of output (Macro activity) for the separation of monetary behavior from the real one o

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the independence of the auditor to practice accounting conservatism Applied research in the financial sector companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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The study aims to verify the independence of auditors working in companies and offices of the Iraqi audit, and measure the level of accounting conservatism in the financial statements of banks and insurance companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as a statement after the independence of the auditor on accounting conservatism in the financial statements of banks and insurance companies listed on the market Iraq Stock Exchange, as it has been measuring the independence of the auditor using the survey form was auditors working in the Iraqi audit firms were measured the level of accounting conservatism for companies sample using a form( Basu) was a statement after variables through the use of statistical models in a mann

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
The Speed and Direction of the Ball's Rotation and its Relationship to the Accuracy of the Front and Rear Side Longitudinal Blow in Wheelchair Tennis Players.
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The study aimed to identify the relationship between the speed and direction of the ball's rotation in the accuracy of the front and rear side longitudinal blow in wheelchair tennis players. The descriptive approach wasused in the manner of correlations to suit the nature of the problem to be studied. The research community identified the 32 players aged18 and over, and the search sample was selected from players with a local classification registered with the 2020 Wheelchair Ground Tennis Federation (2020) in the intentional manner of 8 players, using Smart Tennis Sensor technology to measure the speed and direction of the ball and test the accuracy of the front and rear side longitudinalstraightstrike. She conducted the reconnaissance exp

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Epidemiology of Human Brucellosis among Populations in Iraq's Provinces in 2015
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Background: Brucellosis (Malta fever) is one of the zoonotic diseases that endemic in all the world, this disease has a history from 1937 in Iraq when the microorganism was first isolated via an Iraqi clinician.Objective: To demonstrate brucellosis infection among Iraqi provinces and reveal relationship between Brucellosis with seasons, residence place, gender and age of the patients. In addition to diagnosis of brucellosis from patients in Baghdad province suspects of infection by serological methods (Rose Bengal test) and culture method in diagnosis of brucellosis in human.Patients and Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted at Iraqi hospitals in different Iraqi provinces. The blood sample (serum) was obtained from 1825

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Height-to-Length Ratio Effect on the Response of Unreinforced Masonry Wall Subjected to Vertical Load Using Detailed-Micro Modeling Approach
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This paper aimed to investigate the effect of the height-to-length ratio of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls when loaded by a vertical load. The finite element (FE) method was implemented for modeling and analysis of URM wall. In this paper, ABAQUS, FE software with implicit solver was used to model and analysis URM walls subjected to a vertical load. In order to ensure the validity of Detailed Micro Model (DMM) in predicting the behavior of URM walls under vertical load, the results of the proposed model are compared with experimental results. Load-displacement relationship of the proposed numerical model is found of a good agreement with that of the published experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curve obtained fro

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 29 2025
Journal Name
Al.qadisiya Journal For The Sciences Of Physical Education
The Influence of Using Special Exercises with Weights to Develop Moments of Force to Some of the Striking Shoulder and Arm Muscles and Accuracy of the Skill of the Smash and Rectum in Volleyball
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This research is an attempt to develop exercise with weights to strengthen some of the striking muscles in the shoulder and arm and to develop the accuracy of the smash and rectum skills. The importance of this paper lies in the study of moments of force to achieve the ability to control muscular work and to explore the impact of physical and skill exercises with weights to develop moments of force for some muscles. The experimental method on a sample of players, selected according to the intentional method, including ( 9) advanced players representing Air Force Club participating in the Premier League for season 2011-2012. It is concluded that the exercises proposed have their effective impact on developing the variables of moments force f

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Sovereign wealth funds have their role in reducing the price shocks of crude oil With reference to Iraq
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Abstract

            Sovereign wealth funds are an important tool for achieving economic stability and avoiding the local economy from external shocks, including the shocks of international oil prices. The spread of these funds is the result of large current account surpluses in many Asian and oil-exporting economies. These surpluses are due to higher commodity prices Has led to a rapid accumulation of foreign assets in central banks. Many countries with rent economies face the problem of their dependence on non-renewable natural resources, especially the oil countries, including Iraq. Oil revenues are more than 97% of oil exports, so they suffer from structural imbal

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Translation & Linguistics
TO THE QUESTION ABOUT THE USE OF METAPHORS IN THE CREATION OF ART (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE STORY BY D. RUBINA "YOU AND ME UNDER THE PEACH CLOUDS")
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The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors when creating the image of the main character of the story by D. Rubina "You and me under the peach clouds" - a pet, a dog named Kondraty. Through metaphorization, the image of the dog is filled by the author with purely human qualities, thus passing into the category of a full member of the family. The article is a continuation of the study of the work of D. I. Rubina.

Publication Date
Thu Oct 25 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
الإستراتيجية المستقبلية للبيئة الحضرية
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