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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education Online
Quality of Transition to E-Learning under Corona pandemic: An Application Study in College of Administration and Economics, Baghdad University
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E-learning is a lifeline for the educational process, which contributed to the sustainability of working educational organizations and prevented them from stopping, so the study came to measure the compatibility between E-learning quality dimensions (information technology, educational curricula, teaching methods, and intellectual capital of educational institution) as an independent variable, and educational services quality dimensions represented by (safety, tangibility, reliability and Confidence) as a dependent variable. The sample was 150 teachers was drawn from the College of Administration and Economics community of 293 teachers through the use of several statistical methods to measure the degree of correlation and impact between the

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Scopus
Publication Date
Fri May 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Water Retention Techniques under Crop’s Root Zone a Tool to Enhance Water Use Efficiency and Economic Water Productivity for Zucchini
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 A new technique in cultivation by installing membrane sheet below the crop’s root zone was helped to save irrigation water in the root zone, less farm losses, increasing the field water use efficiency and water productivity. In this paper, the membrane sheet was installed below the root zone of zucchini during the summer growing season 2017 in open field.  This research was carried out in a private field in Babil governorate at Sadat Al Hindiya Township reached 72 km from Baghdad. Surface trickle irrigation system was used for irrigation process. Two treatment plots were used, treatment plot T1 using membrane sheet and treatment plot T2 without using the membrane sheet. The applied irrigation water, time of

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Publication Date
Mon May 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Linear Local Dependence Measure to Study the factors that are Leading to the Growth of Preferring the Application in Private Universities of Iraq
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In this paper a measure of linear local dependence has been used between two
random variables and a study is conducted for the properties of this measure where
two examples of bivariate probability distributions has been considered, which are
bivariate Gumbel distribution and bivariate Beta-Stacy distribution, and applied on
data collected by using a questionnaire conducted to study the reasons for the
increase of application in private collages in Iraq. Five elements has been considered
as random variables and the dependence has been measured between every two
elements to estimate how correlated these elements are and their effect on the
application in private collages of Iraq generally and Baghdad specifically.<

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use some of the scheduling rules for nursing staffs to improve operational performance _ Applied Research in al- Shahed al-Sadr General Hospital
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             Hospitals are part of the service organizations and most importantly at the level of individuals because they are tied to the people health and their daily lives , the nursing service is one of the important services provided by hospitals, and nurses are the human resource that offers this service, from this standpoint the idea of  ​​research came to prepare work Scheduling for nurses in a scientific way to improve performance operational for their services and provide efficient service available 24 hours a day, the research use one of the modern and scientific rules of scheduling its “schedule of

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Listening to music and its reflection on the artistic output of the students of the Department of Art Education: سميعه فاضل كعود
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The relationship between music and plastic arts can be viewed as an interdependent relationship, as they both develop imagination, focus and sensory perception, as well as the presence of some artistic concepts that music shares with the art of drawing, on this basis the rationale for this research aimed at identifying (the influence of music) was dealt with On the artistic output (drawing) of students of the Department of Art Education - College of Fine Arts) In the first chapter the problem of research, importance, terminology, boundaries and goal was addressed, and in the second chapter the researcher dealt with in the first topic the relationship between music and painting, and in the second topic the use of music in education. As fo

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health
Information Expertise and its Role in Management Ability to Produce the Physical Education Lesson in the Directorate of Education in Basra
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Those interested in the educational process and lesson management sought to invest the information experience with industrial intelligence and technology because of its importance in increasing the effectiveness of lesson management and developing the creative capabilities of the teacher in directing and managing his lesson. Field research for sports educational institutions that are interested in managing the lesson and preparing mathematical teaching cadres is an important issue and necessary means for identifying the most important phenomena that accompany the process of managing the educational process, as the teacher's success in providing the appropriate conditions to provide rich and influencing experiences in managing and directing

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
To Domesticate or to Foreignize: An Approach to Translating Fables and Fairy Tales
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      The present study deals with the strategies used in the Arabic translations of the most popular genres of children’s literature; namely fairy tales and fables as an attempt to identify the best methods and strategies to be adopted in translating these genres to fulfill the ultimate purpose of enriching the children’s knowledge in addition to attracting their interest and arousing the joy sought for in every piece of literature.

The study sets off from three dominating trends: the first calls for the adoption of domestication strategy of translation as the most appropriate and effective strategy in translation for children. In the same line, the second opposes using the foreignization strategy, w

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Publication Date
Thu May 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Effect of Stiffeners on Shear Lag in Steel Box Girders
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This paper studies the effects of stiffeners on shear lag in steel box girders with stiffened flanges. A three-dimensional linear finite element analysis using STAAD.Pro V8i program has been employed to evaluate and determine the actual top flange stress distribution and effective width in steel box girders. The steel plates of the flanges and webs have been modeled by four-node isoparametric shell elements, while the stiffeners have been modeled as beam elements. Different numbers (4, 8, and 15) for the steel stiffeners have been used in this study to establish their effects on the shear lag and longitudinal stresses in the flange. Using stiffeners reduced the magnitude of the top flange longitudinal stresses about 40%, but did

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Time of Motor Response To Stimuli (Auditory and Visual) and Its relationship with Blocking Accuracy In Volleyball
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The research aim at identifying the time of motor response to auditory and visual stimuli as well as identifying the accuracy of blocking and finding the relationship between motor repose time and blocking accuracy. The community was (7) primer soccer league of 2019 – 2020 and the subjects were (24) volleyball players from Al Jaish and Al Shorta clubs ten players from Al Shorta club performed the pilot study. The researchers used the descriptive method and the data was collected and treated using SPSS. The results showed a significant relationship between response time and blocking accuracy. The researchers recommended concentrating on applying scientific principles for developing time of motor response in a manner suitable for bl

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choose the best model to measure the impact of human capital on labor productivityIn the manufacturing sector in Iraq
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In this paper all possible regressions procedure as well as stepwise regression procedure were applied to select the best regression equation that explain the effect of human capital represented by different levels of human cadres on the productivity of the processing industries sector in Iraq by employing the data of a time series consisting of 21 years period. The statistical program SPSS was used to perform the required calculations.

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