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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Semi E<sup>h</sup>-b-preinvexity and its applications to optimization problems
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Abstract<p>In this paper, the class of semi <italic>E</italic> <sup> <italic>h</italic> </sup>-<italic>b</italic>-preinvex and pseudo <italic>E</italic> <sup> <italic>h</italic> </sup>-b-preinvex functions are defined as an extension of <italic>E-B</italic>-preinvex and <italic>h</italic>-preinvex functions. In this extension the functions <italic>E</italic>:ℝ<sup> <italic>n</italic> </sup> → ℝ<sup> </sup></p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Self-image addiction (Salafi) and its relation to narcissistic personality disorder among students
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Abstract The goal of current study was to identify the relationship between addiction of self-images (Selfie) and personality disorder of narcissus, and the difference of significance the relationship between addiction self-images (selfie) and personality disorder narcissus at students of Mustansiriya university, addiction self- images (selfie) defined: a photograph that one has taken of oneself, typically one taken with a smartphone or webcam and shared via social media, edit and down lowed to social networking sites, and over time, the replacement of normal life virtual world, which is accompanied by a lack of a sense of time, and the formation of repeated patterns increase the risk of social and personal problems. To achieve the goals

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Serum Leptin levels in ovarian polycystic disease and its correlation to body weight
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Background: Poly cystic ovary syndrome is a common disorder in women of reproductive age, it is associated with disturbance of reproductive, endocrine and metabolic functions. The pathophysiology of PCOS appears to be multifactorial and polygenic. Leptin seems to play an important role in pathophysiology of PCOS especially in women with BMI ≥25kg/m2. Objectives: To assess leptin level in both PCOS and healthy women and explore the relation to their body weight and body mass index. Patient and Methods: A total of 120 women were enrolled in this study, 60 women (50%) had PCOS (study group) and the reminder 60 women (50%) were healthy women and considered as control group. BMI was calculated first. Both groups were further sub

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Perceived competence and its relation to locus of control among sixth-grade students
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The purposes of study are to measure the perceived competence and the locus of control among sixth-grade students, to identify the statistical differences between the perceived competence and the locus of control among sixth-grade students regarding the variable of gender, achievement, and economical status, and lastly, explore the correlation relationship between perceived competence and locus of control among sixth-grade students, To do this, the researchers have constructed two scales: one to measure the perceived competence based on bandura's theory (social-cognitive theory) which consisted of (26) items and the other to measure the locus of control based on Rotter's theory (social-learning theory) which included (25) items. The samp

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Shyness and its relation to feeling of psychological isolation among first intermediate students
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The study attempts to measure the level of shyness; the level of psychological isolation; to identify the relationship between shyness and psychological isolation; and to identify the differences between shyness and psychological isolation among first-intermediate students. To this end, a random sample comprised (187) male and female students was chosen for the academic year (2016-2017) from Baghdad \ Al-Rasafa. To measure the shyness and psychological isolation, the researcher designed two scales: one to measure the shyness composed of (37) items divided into four domains; and the other to measure the psychological isolation made of (56) items divided into three domains. The study concluded that the sample has a medium level of shyness;

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
political culture as a tool to analyse Decentralization Experience in
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It sheds light on the cultural dimension in the decentralized administration experience in Iraq as evaluation tool by adding a new dimension in studying decentralization in addition to the administrative, political and legal dimensions .The proposal of study is that without the civil political culture ,the administrative decentralization in Iraq which remains weak and it may be imposed to a set of problems. - The study includes an introduction, conclusion and a set of political and cultural issues , its components and it may have the political analysis of this culture and its role in determining the movement of the administrative decentralized movement in Iraq post 2003.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Planning the main production tables using the correct binary programming method
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This research include building mathematical models for aggregating planning and shorting planning by using integer programming technique for planning master production scheduling in order to control on the operating production for manufacturing companies to achieve their objectives of increasing the efficiency of utilizing resources and reduce storage and  improving customers service  through  deliver in the actual dates and reducing delays.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 24 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Babylonian theater (Its history, models and properties) a historical comparative study: محمد صبري صالح
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The building of the Babylonian theater is considered as one of the distinctive buildings where its foundations have remained steadfast in the face of geographical changes, social's erosion and groundwater that threatened almost all traces of Babylon despite the destruction of the outer structure of the building. The general directorate of antiques performed prospection for those foundations (the ground map), and then the building was completed by new bricks over the original scheme. It became clear when examining the building; its components and foundations, that the building is unique in comparison with the old buildings of the world throughout Iraq. There are similar buildings in other places like Jordan and North Africa such as

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Moral Awareness and Its Relation to Authoritarian Parenting Style of Secondary School Students in Baghdad
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This research aims at identifying the level of Moral Awareness and the level of Authoritarian Parenting Style of Secondary School Students in Baghdad. Additionally, the study seeks to identify the significant difference between these two variables in term of gender (male-female), as well as the correlation between Moral Awareness and Authoritarian Parenting Style. To do this, the researchers have adopted the scale of moral awareness prepared by the (Assl 2014), which the number of its items was finalized of (28) items. As for the Authoritarian Parenting Style scale, the researcher designed a questionnaire of (22) items as the number of its finalized form. The two instruments were applied on a sample of (140) male and female Students who

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Self-Efficacy and its Relation to the Cognitive Assessment for the Daily Disturbances for the University of Baghdad Students
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The current research tackles the self-efficacy and its relation to the cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances for the University of Baghdad students. Two criteria have been adopted to achieve the objectives of the research. The sample of this study consists of 200 male and female students who were chosen randomly. The data were analyzed statistically, revealing that the university students owned their own self-efficacy as well as a cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances and they recognized them as self-threatening. The results also indicated the existence of a prediction activity in the field of the cognitive assessment to the daily disturbances selection. In light of the acquired results, the study recommends the neces

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