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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Semi E<sup>h</sup>-b-preinvexity and its applications to optimization problems
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Abstract<p>In this paper, the class of semi <italic>E</italic> <sup> <italic>h</italic> </sup>-<italic>b</italic>-preinvex and pseudo <italic>E</italic> <sup> <italic>h</italic> </sup>-b-preinvex functions are defined as an extension of <italic>E-B</italic>-preinvex and <italic>h</italic>-preinvex functions. In this extension the functions <italic>E</italic>:ℝ<sup> <italic>n</italic> </sup> → ℝ<sup> </sup></p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Shyness and its relation to feeling of psychological isolation among first intermediate students
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The study attempts to measure the level of shyness; the level of psychological isolation; to identify the relationship between shyness and psychological isolation; and to identify the differences between shyness and psychological isolation among first-intermediate students. To this end, a random sample comprised (187) male and female students was chosen for the academic year (2016-2017) from Baghdad \ Al-Rasafa. To measure the shyness and psychological isolation, the researcher designed two scales: one to measure the shyness composed of (37) items divided into four domains; and the other to measure the psychological isolation made of (56) items divided into three domains. The study concluded that the sample has a medium level of shyness;

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2008
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Diabetic Patients and Its Relation to Other Diabetic Complications
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Background: left ventricular hypertrophy is independent risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The presence of diabetic complications such as autonomic neuropathy and retinopathy may predict cardiac structural changes in diabetic patients. Objective: To explore the chance of occurrence of left ventricular hypertrophy in diabetic patients and whether it is related to the presence of other diabetic complications. Methods: ninty seven (97) normotensive diabetic patients (57) type II with mean duration of diabetes of (12±6 y) and forty (40) type I with mean duration of (8±6 y) were studied by echocardiography and compared with 41 patients as control. Results: The LVMI was significantly higher in type II diabetics compared

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Perceived competence and its relation to locus of control among sixth-grade students
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The purposes of study are to measure the perceived competence and the locus of control among sixth-grade students, to identify the statistical differences between the perceived competence and the locus of control among sixth-grade students regarding the variable of gender, achievement, and economical status, and lastly, explore the correlation relationship between perceived competence and locus of control among sixth-grade students, To do this, the researchers have constructed two scales: one to measure the perceived competence based on bandura's theory (social-cognitive theory) which consisted of (26) items and the other to measure the locus of control based on Rotter's theory (social-learning theory) which included (25) items. The samp

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
Science International
WORK STRESS AND ITS RELATION TO COGNITIVE FAILURES AMONG ADMINISTRATORS OF UNIVERSITY LECTURERS
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This paper aimed to investigate the relationship between work stress and cognitive failures among administrators of university professors and included a sample by searching from (474) teachers’ administrators and those who obtaining master degree or doctorate. Work stress scale was used, which is prepared by Amina Boashiri supporting by that, a measure of cognitive failures has also been used which is prepared by Khamis Shaeal Al Badri. In order to obtain the results statistical methods were used including (one-sample t-test, Pearson correlation coefficient) results indicated a high level of stress Work stress and high level of cognitive failures among professors as administrators, and also there is a positive correlation, as well as stat

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Self-Efficacy and its Relation to the Cognitive Assessment for the Daily Disturbances for the University of Baghdad Students
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The current research tackles the self-efficacy and its relation to the cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances for the University of Baghdad students. Two criteria have been adopted to achieve the objectives of the research. The sample of this study consists of 200 male and female students who were chosen randomly. The data were analyzed statistically, revealing that the university students owned their own self-efficacy as well as a cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances and they recognized them as self-threatening. The results also indicated the existence of a prediction activity in the field of the cognitive assessment to the daily disturbances selection. In light of the acquired results, the study recommends the neces

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2024
Journal Name
The Science Teacher
Using Scenarios to Assess Student Learning
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Using Online Platforms to Improve Writing
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Due to the difficulties that Iraqi students face when writing in the English language, this preliminary study aimed to improve students' writing skills by using online platforms remotely. Sixty first-year students from Al-Furat Al–Awsat Technical University participated in this study. Through these platforms, the researchers relied on stimuli, such as images, icons, and short titles to allow for deeper and more accurate participations. Data were collected through corrections, observations, and feedback from the researchers and peers. In addition, two pre and post-tests were conducted. The quantitative data were analysed by SPSS statistical Editor, whereas the qualitative data were analyzed using the Piot table, an Excel sheet. The resu

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Publication Date
Tue May 20 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The use of mathematical formulas to control river pollution Study area Diyala River within the city of Baquba
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Pollution of the aquatic environment and the depletion of the natural resource cause imbalance in the natural balance of the river environment and contributes to the deterioration of life and the killing of living organisms. Most of the old and modern cities and urban centers were set up close to the rivers because water enters the main lifeblood and all its facilities. The proximity of cities to rivers caused environmental problems resulting from the dumping of residues of these cities to a large and continuous, these wastes include all uses of the city (industrial, agricultural, residential and commercial) and others. The accumulation of these wastes inside the rivers water kills life and makes them unsuitable for various uses to bury

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Moral Awareness and Its Relation to Authoritarian Parenting Style of Secondary School Students in Baghdad
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This research aims at identifying the level of Moral Awareness and the level of Authoritarian Parenting Style of Secondary School Students in Baghdad. Additionally, the study seeks to identify the significant difference between these two variables in term of gender (male-female), as well as the correlation between Moral Awareness and Authoritarian Parenting Style. To do this, the researchers have adopted the scale of moral awareness prepared by the (Assl 2014), which the number of its items was finalized of (28) items. As for the Authoritarian Parenting Style scale, the researcher designed a questionnaire of (22) items as the number of its finalized form. The two instruments were applied on a sample of (140) male and female Students who

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