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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 22 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Using of special exercises to mtaulp speed to pass the test (150×20) for women football referees
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Rationalization the costs and improve seed quality under the application of biotechnology: An Applied Research in Ministry of Agriculture - the Directorate of Inspection &Certification of Seeds
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The importance of this research has been to rationalize the cost of producing maize seeds through the followers of modern techniques and methods in agricultural activities such as genetic engineering for the purpose of increasing production efficiency of maize seeds as well as the importance of calculating seed cost rationalization through the ABC system and thus rationalizing government spending. The research is based on a single hypothesis that the use of genetic engineering on corn seeds works to:increase production efficiency of seeds and savings in agricultural inputs, calculation of rationalization through the cost system on the basis of activity ABC The research reached a number of conclus

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2024
Journal Name
The Science Teacher
Using Scenarios to Assess Student Learning
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Using Online Platforms to Improve Writing
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Due to the difficulties that Iraqi students face when writing in the English language, this preliminary study aimed to improve students' writing skills by using online platforms remotely. Sixty first-year students from Al-Furat Al–Awsat Technical University participated in this study. Through these platforms, the researchers relied on stimuli, such as images, icons, and short titles to allow for deeper and more accurate participations. Data were collected through corrections, observations, and feedback from the researchers and peers. In addition, two pre and post-tests were conducted. The quantitative data were analysed by SPSS statistical Editor, whereas the qualitative data were analyzed using the Piot table, an Excel sheet. The resu

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Perceived competence and its relation to locus of control among sixth-grade students
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The purposes of study are to measure the perceived competence and the locus of control among sixth-grade students, to identify the statistical differences between the perceived competence and the locus of control among sixth-grade students regarding the variable of gender, achievement, and economical status, and lastly, explore the correlation relationship between perceived competence and locus of control among sixth-grade students, To do this, the researchers have constructed two scales: one to measure the perceived competence based on bandura's theory (social-cognitive theory) which consisted of (26) items and the other to measure the locus of control based on Rotter's theory (social-learning theory) which included (25) items. The samp

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Serum Leptin levels in ovarian polycystic disease and its correlation to body weight
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Background: Poly cystic ovary syndrome is a common disorder in women of reproductive age, it is associated with disturbance of reproductive, endocrine and metabolic functions. The pathophysiology of PCOS appears to be multifactorial and polygenic. Leptin seems to play an important role in pathophysiology of PCOS especially in women with BMI ≥25kg/m2. Objectives: To assess leptin level in both PCOS and healthy women and explore the relation to their body weight and body mass index. Patient and Methods: A total of 120 women were enrolled in this study, 60 women (50%) had PCOS (study group) and the reminder 60 women (50%) were healthy women and considered as control group. BMI was calculated first. Both groups were further sub

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2008
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Diabetic Patients and Its Relation to Other Diabetic Complications
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Background: left ventricular hypertrophy is independent risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The presence of diabetic complications such as autonomic neuropathy and retinopathy may predict cardiac structural changes in diabetic patients. Objective: To explore the chance of occurrence of left ventricular hypertrophy in diabetic patients and whether it is related to the presence of other diabetic complications. Methods: ninty seven (97) normotensive diabetic patients (57) type II with mean duration of diabetes of (12±6 y) and forty (40) type I with mean duration of (8±6 y) were studied by echocardiography and compared with 41 patients as control. Results: The LVMI was significantly higher in type II diabetics compared

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
Science International
WORK STRESS AND ITS RELATION TO COGNITIVE FAILURES AMONG ADMINISTRATORS OF UNIVERSITY LECTURERS
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This paper aimed to investigate the relationship between work stress and cognitive failures among administrators of university professors and included a sample by searching from (474) teachers’ administrators and those who obtaining master degree or doctorate. Work stress scale was used, which is prepared by Amina Boashiri supporting by that, a measure of cognitive failures has also been used which is prepared by Khamis Shaeal Al Badri. In order to obtain the results statistical methods were used including (one-sample t-test, Pearson correlation coefficient) results indicated a high level of stress Work stress and high level of cognitive failures among professors as administrators, and also there is a positive correlation, as well as stat

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Semi E<sup>h</sup>-b-preinvexity and its applications to optimization problems
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Abstract<p>In this paper, the class of semi <italic>E</italic> <sup> <italic>h</italic> </sup>-<italic>b</italic>-preinvex and pseudo <italic>E</italic> <sup> <italic>h</italic> </sup>-b-preinvex functions are defined as an extension of <italic>E-B</italic>-preinvex and <italic>h</italic>-preinvex functions. In this extension the functions <italic>E</italic>:ℝ<sup> <italic>n</italic> </sup> → ℝ<sup> </sup></p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Shyness and its relation to feeling of psychological isolation among first intermediate students
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The study attempts to measure the level of shyness; the level of psychological isolation; to identify the relationship between shyness and psychological isolation; and to identify the differences between shyness and psychological isolation among first-intermediate students. To this end, a random sample comprised (187) male and female students was chosen for the academic year (2016-2017) from Baghdad \ Al-Rasafa. To measure the shyness and psychological isolation, the researcher designed two scales: one to measure the shyness composed of (37) items divided into four domains; and the other to measure the psychological isolation made of (56) items divided into three domains. The study concluded that the sample has a medium level of shyness;

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