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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 09 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education
E-Learning Applications According To The Levels Of STEM Literacy For Teachers Of Physics At The Secondary Stage
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E-learning applications according to the levels of enlightenment (STEM Literacy) for physics teachers in the secondary stage. The sample consists of (400) teachers, at a rate of (200) males (50%), and (200)females (50%), distributed over (6) directorates of education in Baghdad governorate on both sides of Rusafa and Karkh. To verify the research goals, the researcher built a scale of e-learning applications according to the levels of STEM Literacy, which consists of (50) items distributed over (5) levels. The face validity of the scale and its stability were verified by extracting the stability coefficient through the internal consistency method “Alf-Cronbach”. The following statistical means were used: Pearson correlation coefficient,

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Design an Efficient Neural Network to Determine the Rate of Contamination in the Tigris River in Baghdad City
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This article proposes a new technique for determining the rate of contamination. First, a generative adversarial neural network (ANN) parallel processing technique is constructed and trained using real and secret images. Then, after the model is stabilized, the real image is passed to the generator. Finally, the generator creates an image that is visually similar to the secret image, thus achieving the same effect as the secret image transmission. Experimental results show that this technique has a good effect on the security of secret information transmission and increases the capacity of information hiding. The metric signal of noise, a structural similarity index measure, was used to determine the success of colour image-hiding t

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Does the tertiary health care for Type 2 diabetic patients can help to Meet the recommended glycemic targets
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Objectives: To study the effect of providing tertiary (specialized) health care for type 2 diabetic patients to meet the WHO and ADA standards and glycemic targets.
Method: Six months, Jan. – Jun. 2010, cohort study was conducted on 600 adult diabetics who registered in the National Diabetes Center (NDC) / Al-Mustansiriya University, Baghdad – Iraq. They were followed for 3- 6 months; each time patients were examined physically and their blood pressure, height, weight and BMI were measured. Fasting blood samples were taken from all patients to test the FPG, HbA1c, T.Chol, TG, HDL and LDL.
Results: Patients’ age was 52.85±15.56 year and the male/female ratio was 1.01, the median duration of disease was 7 years and their BMI w

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability: Tmrees22fr
Theoretical insights into the study of the electronic transition reaction process from D35CPDT molecule dye to SnO2 semiconductor
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-qadisiyah For Computer Science And Mathematics Vol
Predicate the Ability of Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) to treat the Kidney Stones by used Combined Classifier
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Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) is the most commonplace remedy for kidney stone. Shock waves from outside the body frame are centered at a kidney stone inflicting the stone to fragment. The success of the (ESWL) treatment is based on some variables such as age, sex, stone quantity stone period and so on. Thus, the prediction the success of remedy by this method is so important for professionals to make a decision to continue using (ESWL) or tousing another remedy technique. In this study, a prediction system for (ESWL) treatment by used three techniques of mixing classifiers, which is Product Rule (PR), Neural Network (NN) and the proposed classifier called Nested Combined Classi

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
The Effect of Defensive Exercises in the Motor Response to Develop Some Defensive Skills for Young Basketball Players
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Thermodynamic Investigation of Partially Purified Paraoxonase in the Sera of Healthy Pregnant Women Compared to Women with Pregnancy Complication
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The thermodynamic constanting of “crude and partially purified” Paraxonase(PON) was evaluated in the sera of “healthy and ectopic” pregnant women in order to characterize the reaction of PON with diethyl para-nitro phenyl phosphate as substrate.This study was performed on (17) women with ectopic pregnancy (EP) whose age between (25-55) years  and (25) normal pregnant women with  a mean age of (25 -55) years as  a control group . Samples were collected from the Medical City, AL-Yarmook and Fatema AL-Zahraa hospitals during the period from Sep.2011 to April 2012.The study included the evaluation  of “paraxonase activity, specific activity and total protein” in the (crude and partially purified) sera of EP pa

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of applying the CAMEL model to profitability of banks )An applied study on a number of Iraqi banks for the period 2010-2016(
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The evaluation of banks plays an important role in maintaining the interests of customers with the bank as well as providing continuous supervision and control by the Central Bank. The Central Bank of Iraq conducted an assessment of the Iraqi banks through the implementation of the CAMEL model during a certain period. This evaluation did not continue. The research provides continuity to the Central Bank's assessment and as a step to continue the evaluation process for all banks through the use of the CAMEL model. ROA and ROE by using the regression model for four Iraqi banks registered in the Iraqi market for securities during the period 2010-2016. The results showed that the capital and profitability indicators have a significan

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Kerbala University
Bond strength of acrylic teeth to heat cure acrylic resin and thermoplastic denture base materials
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Background: tooth debonding was one of the major reasons for denture repair. With the use of recently introduced thermoplastic denture base materials the problem of tooth debonding increased due to the nature of the bond between these materials and the acrylic teeth. This study was aimed to assess the bond of the acrylic teeth to conventional heat cure acrylic resin and to thermoplastic resin denture base material and methods to enhance it. Materials and methods: acrylic resin teeth were bonded to heat cure acrylic resin with and without wetting the ridge laps of the teeth with monomer and acrylic teeth with prefabricated retentive holes, unmodified and modified, in their ridge laps were processed with Valplast thermoplastic resin denture b

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Geology & Geosciences
Sorption Mechanism and Capacity Evaluation of Palygorskite from Iraq to Remove Pb from Aqueous Solution
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