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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
New Correlation To Calculate Absolute Permeability From Gas Permeameter
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In this study, two correlations are developed to calculate absolute rocks permeability from core samples tested by Gas Permeameter Apparatus. The first correlation can be applied if K g≤100, the second correlation can be applied if Kg>100. Sixty core samples having different permeabilities to give a wide range of values that necessary to achieve a correlation.

 

The developed correlation is easily applied and a quick method to avoid repeating the test at different pressure values. Only one pressure test is required to reach absolu

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 20 2023
Journal Name
Journal For Research In Applied Sciences And Biotechnology
Article Review: Description Histology to Gastric Ulcer in Human
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A recurrent condition that affects up to 10% of people worldwide is gastric ulceration illness. The existence of gastric juice pH with the lowering of mucous defences is prerequisites for the development of chronic ulcers. The main variables affecting the mucosa susceptibility to damage include Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infections or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medicines (NSAIDs). Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) including histamine-2 (H2) receptor inhibitors, two common therapies for peptic ulcers, have been linked to side impacts, recurrence or a variety of pharmacological combinations. Conversely, therapeutic herbs or the chemicals they contain may be used to cure or eliminate a wide range of illnesses. Therefore, prominent pharma

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 12 2010
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Suggested Approach to deal with Multicollinearity Problem – with Application –
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This research introduce a study with application on Principal Component Regression obtained from some of the explainatory variables to limitate Multicollinearity problem among these variables and gain staibilty in their estimations more than those which yield from Ordinary Least Squares. But the cost that we pay in the other hand losing a little power of the estimation of the predictive regression function in explaining the essential variations. A suggested numerical formula has been proposed and applied by the researchers as optimal solution, and vererifing the its efficiency by a program written by the researchers themselves for this porpuse through some creterions: Cumulative Percentage Variance, Coefficient of Determination, Variance

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Ranking Function to Solve a Fuzzy Multiple Objective Function
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In this paper two ranking functions are employed to treat the fuzzy multiple objective (FMO) programming model, then using two kinds of membership function, the first one is trapezoidal fuzzy (TF) ordinary membership function, the second one is trapezoidal fuzzy weighted membership function. When the objective function is fuzzy, then should transform and shrinkage the fuzzy model to traditional model, finally solving these models to know which one is better

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Economic globalization adapts to a new stage of development
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the pursue of social  systems history present to us solid evidence that the collapse of  that systems be caused by either the stagnancy aftermath maturity or unreal intellectual foundation which lead to sudden collapse, while the capitalism can avoided that intellectual damages due to its dynamic system with appropriate  auto adaptation mechanism and use it excellently in the right time.

The globalization had excrete (as one of the capitalism adaptation mechanism) its own targets and its methods in framework of multinationals corporations which consist with capitalism states that employed the international organizations to reconstruction the global economy to serve such targets. So the glob

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Ways to stimulate children's skills through contemporary theatrical discourse
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In order to activate theatrical discourse aware of the changes imposed by the nature of the contemporary child in terms of stimulating the social skills that achieve a technical and aesthetic convergence between him and theatrical presentation by investing the fact of the existence of the child and its potential in the weaving of stories, and folk in the imagination, and simulation of what corresponds with the characters and icons interact with them through technologies In the light of this research came the following address: (ways to stimulate the skills of the child through a contemporary theatrical speech) where the researcher seeks to delineate the importance involved in the discourse of theater through ways to reach the pillars con

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 23 1989
Journal Name
J. Agric. Water Reso. Res 8 (1), 11-25‏
Response Of Two Barley Mutants CV. Arivat To Salinity‏
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use of Infrared Light to Improve Breast Sonographic images
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It is well known that sonography is not the first choice in detecting early breast tumors. Improving the resolution of breast sonographic image is the goal of many workers to make sonography a first choice examination as it is safe and easy procedure as well as cost effective. In this study, infrared light exposure of breast prior to ultrasound examination was implemented to see its effect on resolution of sonographic image. Results showed that significant improvement was obtained in 60% of cases.

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Resistance to Moisture Damage of Recycled Asphalt Concrete Pavement
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Recycled asphalt concrete mixture are prepared, artificially aged and processed in the laboratory to maintain the homogeneity of recycled asphalt concrete mixture gradation, and bitumen content. The loose asphalt concrete mix was subjected to cycle of accelerated aging, (short –term aging) and the compacted mix was subjected to (long -term aging) as per Super-pave procedure. Twenty four Specimens were constructed at optimum asphalt content according to Marshall Method. Recycled mixture was prepared from aged asphalt concrete using recycling agent (soft asphalt cement blended with silica fumes) by (1.5%) weight of mixture as recycling agent content. The effect of recycling agent on aging after recycling process behavior

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 11 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multidisciplinary Science And Advanced Technology
Superbugs (Multi Drug Resistant Bacteria to antibiotics): A Review
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