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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical testing mediation in structural equations models variables with practical application
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Abstract:
       This study is studied one method of estimation and testing parameters mediating variables in a structural equations model SEM is causal steps method, in order to identify and know the variables that have indirect effects by estimating and testing mediation variables parameters by the above way and then applied to Iraq Women Integrated Social and Health Survey (I-WISH) for year 2011 from the Ministry of planning - Central statistical organization to identify if the  variables having the effect of mediation in the model by the step causal methods by using AMOS program V.23, it
was the independent variable X represents a phenomenon studied (cultural case of the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 27 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Contemporary formation indicators of free zones cities -Public Free zones models-
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The free zone or the free economy cities are cities with classification and functional specificity, although the history of  the concept of these areas has been It dates back to distant eras, but the intellectual and philosophical construction with the support of intellectual approaches, the most important of which is globalization contributed to its rapid spread globally and taking a variety of forms and models. With the diversity of its formulas and objectives countries have competed in adopting the establishment of these areas, meanwhile The influence of related trends affected the contemporary formation of these sites. Therefore ,the research was directed focus on the importance of adopting a set of common indicators (collection

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Sustainable Investment In Architectural Heritage Buildings (Analytical Study Of Arabic Models)
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 Heritage is considered as the civilization and cultural wealth accumulated over the . centuries, whereas architectural heritage is the physical witness of that civilization. Despite the fact that architectural heritage is the most important effort for economic development of any communit,، it suffers from deterioration and neglection especially in the Arab communities. Recently awareness has increased about the importance of investing on architectural heritage generally and sustainable investment particularly. The goal of investment process in heritage areas is to revive economic activity in addition to attempt to revive the heritage and community values. Research aims to examine the relationship between sustainable investment and

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 09 2020
Journal Name
Construction Research Congress 2020
Alternative Risk Models for Optimal Investment in Portfolio-Based Community Solar
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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Analysis of different Machine Learning Models for Intrusion Detection Systems
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In recent years, the world witnessed a rapid growth in attacks on the internet which resulted in deficiencies in networks performances. The growth was in both quantity and versatility of the attacks. To cope with this, new detection techniques are required especially the ones that use Artificial Intelligence techniques such as machine learning based intrusion detection and prevention systems. Many machine learning models are used to deal with intrusion detection and each has its own pros and cons and this is where this paper falls in, performance analysis of different Machine Learning Models for Intrusion Detection Systems based on supervised machine learning algorithms. Using Python Scikit-Learn library KNN, Support Ve

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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The use of GIS in the analysis of existing condition of spatial distribution of wire communications network in the city of Baghdad
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The increasing efficiency of the telecommunications network in the city contributes to the increase in spatial interaction between activities (to influence and mutual influence) This study is based on the idea that the upgrading of telephone services provided to citizens are done exclusively through the growth and development of all levels of the service using advanced technologies to know the problems and appropriate solutions in short time and less cost. Thus, crystallized the objectives of the study which was built for the importance of GIS in the planning of services in general, and infrastructure services, in particular, including telephone services, which is represent a point of contact between individuals on the one hand a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Synthesis and Characterization of Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles under Different pH Conditions
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Ethanol as a solvent, a precursor of titanium isopropoxide and a stabilizer of either hydrochloric acid or ammonium hydroxide was used to prepare a titanium dioxide aqueous solution. The aqueous solutions with different values of pH and the morphology of the resultant reaction of the nanoparticles of titanium dioxide were investigated. The X-ray diffraction showed that at low temperatures and with acidic solutions, rutile structures are more favorable to grow on titanium dioxide synthesized, while at low and average temperatures and with base solutions, anatase phase is more pronounced. The crystalline form and the re-confirmation of the crystallite size growth were observed by the scanning electron microscopy. The atomi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
PERFORMANCE, VARIANCE COMPONENTS AND HERITABILITY OF OATS CULTIVERS UNDER IRRIGATION INTERVALS
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Seeds of five cultivars of oats (Avena sativa) were introduced from Italy in 2009. Seeds were propagated on the farm of the Dept. of Field Crops Sci. / Coll. of Agric. / Univ. of Baghdad in the season 2009 – 2010. The cultivars Anatolia, Alguda, Hamel, Pimula and Genzania were planted under 3 irrigation intervals; 3, 4 and 5 weeks to give water depth of 480, 400 and 320 mm, respectively . The depth of water was 80 mm each irrigation. A factorial experiment with RCBD of 4 replicates was conducted in 2 consecutive seasons in 2010 – 2011 and 2011 – 2012. The cultivar Alguda gave highest grain yield (8.07 t/ ha) under 480 mm, and 7.02 t / ha average of 3 water depths. This cultivar was characterized by high growth rate (13.2 g/m2/ d) that

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Synthesis and Characterization of Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles under Different pH Conditions
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Ethanol as a solvent, a precursor of titanium isopropoxide and a stabilizer of either hydrochloric acid or ammonium hydroxide was used to prepare a titanium dioxide aqueous solution. The aqueous solutions with different values of pH and the morphology of the resultant reaction of the nanoparticles of titanium dioxide were investigated. The X-ray diffraction showed that at low temperatures and with acidic solutions, rutile structures are more favorable to grow on titanium dioxide synthesized, while at low and average temperatures and with base solutions, anatase phase is more pronounced. The crystalline form and the re-confirmation of the crystallite size growth were observed by the scanning electron microscopy. The atomic force micr

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Case control study to determine Macrophage migration inhibitor, and N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen Levels in the sera of osteoporosis patients
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This study focused on determining the markers of Macrophage migration inhibitor (MIF), as well as the N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen (NTX), and some other parameters (alkaline phosphatase (ALP), vitamin D (Vit D), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and magnesium (Mg), and their correlation with other parameters in osteoporosis. One hundred ten subjects were involved in the current study. There were two groups of patients: group I (30) women with severe osteoporosis and group II (30) women with mild osteoporosis. For comparison, 50 apparently healthy individuals were included as a control. Serum levels of MIF, and NTX were significantly higher in groups I and II as compared to the control group, which indicate that these two parameters

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