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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
8th Engineering And 2nd International Conference For College Of Engineering – University Of Baghdad: Coec8-2021 Proceedings
Optimal characteristics of wind turbine to maximize capacity factor
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The capacity factor is the main factor in assessing the efficiency of wind Turbine. This paper presents a procedure to find the optimal wind turbine for five different locations in Iraq based on finding the highest capacity factor of wind turbine for different locations. The wind data for twelve successive years (2009-2020) of five locations in Iraq are collected and analyzed. The longitudes and latitudes of the candidate sites are (44.3661o E, 33.3152o N), (47.7738o E, 30.5258o N), (45.8160o E, 32.5165o N), (44.33265o E, 32.0107o N) and (46.25691o E, 31.0510o N) for Baghdad, Basrah, Al-Kut, Al-Najaf, and Al-Nasiriyah respectively. The average wind velocity, standard deviation, Weibull shape and scale factors, and probability density functi

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 23 1989
Journal Name
J. Agric. Water Reso. Res 8 (1), 11-25‏
Response Of Two Barley Mutants CV. Arivat To Salinity‏
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Publication Date
Thu Aug 26 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Mechanics And Engineering
Probabilistic Mesoscale Analysis of Concrete Beams Subjected to Flexure
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Abstract<p>In this paper, the probabilistic behavior of plain concrete beams subjected to flexure is studied using a continuous mesoscale model. The model is two-dimensional where aggregate and mortar are treated as separate constituents having their own characteristic properties. The aggregate is represented as ellipses and generated under prescribed grading curves. Ellipses are randomly placed so it requires probabilistic analysis for model using the Monte Carlo simulation with 20 realizations to represent geometry uncertainty. The nonlinear behavior is simulated with an isotropic damage model for the mortar, while the aggregate is assumed to be elastic. The isotropic damage model softening be</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Enhancement of self-healing to mechanical properties of concrete
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Abstract<p>Concrete is the main construction material of many structures. Exposing to loads creates cracks in concrete, which reduce the performance and durability. The decrease of concrete cracks becomes a necessity demand to ensure more durability and structural integrity of the concrete structure. Autogenous healing concrete is a kind of new smart concretes, which has the ability to reclose its cracks by means of itself. Concrete self-healing is a type of free repairs processes, which is reduce direct and indirect cost of maintenance and repairing. This work targets to inspect the mechanical properties of concrete after using two combinations of two materials (20 kg/m3 calcium hydroxide Ca(OH</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Seed priming of sorghum cultivars to tolerate salt stress
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A laboratory experiment was carried out in the laboratories of College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad in 2017. Three factors were studied; Sorghum bicolor L. cultivars (Inqath, Rabeh and Buhoth70), primed and unprimed seed, and salt stress (0, 6, 9 and 12 dS.m−1). The aim was to improve germination and seedling growth under salt stress. The results showed significant superiority of Buhoth70 cultivar compared to others, significantly superiority of primed seed compared to the unprimed and significant negative impact as long as increasing levels of salt stress at germination ratio, plumule length, dry seedling weight and seedling vigor index. The interaction between cultivars, priming and salt stress showed that

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Ranking Function to Solve a Fuzzy Multiple Objective Function
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In this paper two ranking functions are employed to treat the fuzzy multiple objective (FMO) programming model, then using two kinds of membership function, the first one is trapezoidal fuzzy (TF) ordinary membership function, the second one is trapezoidal fuzzy weighted membership function. When the objective function is fuzzy, then should transform and shrinkage the fuzzy model to traditional model, finally solving these models to know which one is better

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Formal unknown and its role in enriching the speech communication designs women's fabrics
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The design fabrics of the most important episodes that are at the core process rhetorical communication, until they became these episodes ample room for research and investigation, and the issue of non-familiar formality is nothing but the result of those relationships Constructivism, which is the result of an effort builders coherent activate the shape and attributes of phenotypic, therefore it will cause him a lot of questions about his and founded the organization in order to activate the speech communication between the product(cloth)and the receiver .On this basis, the research problem identified on imposing the question follows:1. Does the non-familiar formal role in enriching communication discourse of women's fabric designs?2. Ar

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Concept of Fairness Accounting and its Role in Reducing Earnings Management Practices
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The aims of research is diagnose and indicate the role of fairness in the work of accounting, which is important in reducing the unacceptable practices to manage earnings by economic units, As well as the interpretation and indicate Ethical inside in the accounting and accountants in particular practices in the area of ​​earnings management to reduce the negative effects of the practice and display the results mentioned acts according to what is supposed to be for the purposes of service users, Researchers have identified that one hypothesis, that "Fairness of accountants in of their work accounting lead to a reduction of earnings management practices". The results suggest that the accounting practices that lead to the manipu

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The History of Multi Parties and its Effect on Political System in India
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The History of Multi Parties and its Effect on Political System in India

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Societal awareness and its role in building the Arab state: an intellectual vision:
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It is no secret to everyone that the Arab individual suffers from poor self-awareness and political awareness, which made the state and the importance of its existence and preserving its institutions not among his interests, which made researchers wonder about the possibility of strengthening it and the extent of its impact on the future of building the contemporary Arab state, so the study attempted Addressing the issue of community awareness and its impact on building the state through a clear intellectual vision that blended what is social and political to define the concept of community awareness and highlight its importance and role as a basic pillar in shaping and building modern Arab countries. In the Arab world and ways to enhanc

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