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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The impact of education differentiated strategy to modify the alternative conceptions Geographical concepts when students First grade average
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The aim of this study was to know ( the impact of education differentiated strategy to modify the alternative developments of geographical concepts when students first grade average) .
      To achieve the goal of this study , researcher relied on the experimental design of a partial set , the design is ( the experimental group with a control group of post-test )
.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
A Review on Models for Evaluating Rock Petrophysical Properties
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The evaluation of subsurface formations as applied to oil well drilling started around 50 years ago. Generally, the curent review articule includes all methods for coring, logging, testing, and sampling. Also the methods for deciphering logs and laboratory tests that are relevant to assessing formations beneath the surface, including a look at the fluids they contain are discussed. Casing is occasionally set in order to more precisely evaluate the formations; as a result, this procedure is also taken into account while evaluating the formations. The petrophysics of reservoir rocks is the branch of science interested in studying chemical and physical properties of permeable media and the components of reservoir rocks which are associated

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced And Applied Sciences
High-accuracy models for iris recognition with merging features
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Due to advancements in computer science and technology, impersonation has become more common. Today, biometrics technology is widely used in various aspects of people's lives. Iris recognition, known for its high accuracy and speed, is a significant and challenging field of study. As a result, iris recognition technology and biometric systems are utilized for security in numerous applications, including human-computer interaction and surveillance systems. It is crucial to develop advanced models to combat impersonation crimes. This study proposes sophisticated artificial intelligence models with high accuracy and speed to eliminate these crimes. The models use linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for feature extraction and mutual info

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Arpn Journal Of Engineering And Applied Sciences
PSEUDO RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR BASED ON NEURO-FUZZY MODELS
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Producing pseudo-random numbers (PRN) with high performance is one of the important issues that attract many researchers today. This paper suggests pseudo-random number generator models that integrate Hopfield Neural Network (HNN) with fuzzy logic system to improve the randomness of the Hopfield Pseudo-random generator. The fuzzy logic system has been introduced to control the update of HNN parameters. The proposed model is compared with three state-ofthe-art baselines the results analysis using National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) statistical test and ENT test shows that the projected model is statistically significant in comparison to the baselines and this demonstrates the competency of neuro-fuzzy based model to produce

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2013
Journal Name
International Journal Of Electrical, Electronics And Telecommunication Engineering
Performance Analysis of xPON Network for Different Queuing Models
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Passive optical network (PON) is a point to multipoint, bidirectional, high rate optical network for data communication. Different standards of PONs are being implemented, first of all PON was ATM PON (APON) which evolved in Broadband PON (BPON). The two major types are Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit passive optical network (GPON). PON with these different standards is called xPON. To have an efficient performance for the last two standards of PON, some important issues will considered. In our work we will integrate a network with different queuing models such M/M/1 and M/M/m model. After analyzing IPACT as a DBA scheme for this integrated network, we modulate cycle time, traffic load, throughput, utilization and overall delay

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Parametric Models in Survival Analysis for Lung Cancer Patients
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    The aim of this study is to estimate the survival function for the data of lung cancer patients, using parametric methods (Weibull, Gumbel, exponential and log-logistic).

Comparisons between the proposed estimation method have been performed using statistical indicator Akaike information Criterion, Akaike information criterion corrected and Bayesian information Criterion, concluding that the survival function for the lung cancer by using Gumbel distribution model is the best. The expected values of the survival function of all estimation methods that are proposed in this study have been decreasing gradually with increasing failure times for lung cancer patients, which means that there is an opposite relationshi

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Principal components and Partial least squares methods to estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model in the case of linear multiplication problem
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Abstract

  The logistic regression model is one of the nonlinear models that aims at obtaining highly efficient capabilities, It also the researcher an idea of the effect of the explanatory variable on the binary response variable.                                                                                  &nb

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE USE OF MICROENCAPSULATION TECHNOLOGY WITH COATING LAYER BY LAYER TO IMPROVE THE STABILITY OF THE Lactobacillus casei TOWARDS THE BILE SALTS AND TREATMENT HEAT.: THE USE OF MICROENCAPSULATION TECHNOLOGY WITH COATING LAYER BY LAYER TO IMPROVE THE STABILITY OF THE Lactobacillus casei TOWARDS THE BILE SALTS AND TREATMENT HEAT.
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This study aimed to improve the microencapsulation technique using a type coating the encapsulation Layer by Layer, which provide the best protection for life Lactobacillus casei in the extrusion method and use the microencapsulation of materials of the protein concentrated by protein 80% and the coating with alginate and chitosan have the results showed the variation in the difference of the binding process encapsulation yield among the types of coating through. by studying of these the effect o stability of the bio probiotic free cell and the three types coated towards three different concentrations from bile salts 0, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7% when the periods of time different of zero and two and three hours at incubation the recorded

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 07 2020
Journal Name
Key Engineering Materials
Compressive Strength and Shrinkage Behavior of Concrete Produced from Portland Limestone Cement with Water Absorption Polymer Balls
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From the sustainability point of view a combination of using water absorption polymer balls in concrete mix produce from Portland limestone cement (IL) is worth to be perceived. Compressive strength and drying shrinkage behavior for the mixes of concrete prepared by Ordinary Portland Cement (O.P.C) and Portland limestone cement (IL) were investigated in this research. Water absorbent polymer balls (WAPB) are innovative module in producing building materials due to the internal curing which eliminates autogenous shrinkage, enhances the strength at early age, improve the durability, give higher compressive strength at early age, and reduce the effect of insufficient external curing. Polymer balls (WAPB) had been used in the mixes of thi

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
RESERVE ESTIMATION OF LATE MIOCENE INJANA CLAYSTONE BEDS FOR PORTLAND CEMENT AND BRICK INDUSTRY, MIDDLE OF IRAQ
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