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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2015
Journal Name
Al Mustansyriah Journal Of Science
Comparison between (ARIMA) and (ANNs) models for estimating the relative humidity for Baghdad city
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The aim of the research is to study the comparison between (ARIMA) Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and(ANNs) Artificial Neural Networks models and to select the best one for prediction the monthly relative humidity values depending upon the standard errors between estimated and observe values . It has been noted that both can be used for estimation and the best on among is (ANNs) as the values (MAE,RMSE, R2) is )0.036816,0.0466,0.91) respectively for the best formula for model (ARIMA) (6,0,2)(6,0,1) whereas the values of estimates relative to model (ANNs) for the best formula (5,5,1) is (0.0109, 0.0139 ,0.991) respectively. so that model (ANNs) is superior than (ARIMA) in a such evaluation.

Publication Date
Wed Nov 12 2025
Journal Name
Imam Ja'afar Al-sadiq University Journal Of Legal Studies
The role of fluctuations and crises in stock markets in activating market makers models
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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the relationship between the prices of wheat and rice importer in Iraq and crude oil prices and the exchange rate using the ARDL model
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Since the beginning of 21st century, the prices of Agricultural crops have increased. This Increases is accompanied with that increases of crude oil prices and fluctuation of a dollar exchange rate as a dominant currency used in the global trade. The paper aimed to analysis the short run and long run cointegration relationships between prices of some of Agricultural crops imported by Iraq such as wheat and rice crops and both the crude oil prices and the Iraq dinar exchange rate a gained America dollar using ARDL model. The results show the long run equilibrium between they three variable throng the error correction mechanizem. The results also show the significant and economically sound effects of cru

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Printmaking Techniques to Enable People with Visual Impairment to Taste Print Artworks
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The study aims to integrate the visually impaired people into the art connoisseur community through producing special print artworks to enable the visually impaired people to use their other senses to feel artworks by using artistic printing techniques through adding some prominent materials to the printing colors or making an impact that visually impaired people can perceive using their other senses. This study also aims to set up art exhibitions that display tangible works that can enable visually impaired people to feel artwork and understand its elements to enable them to feel it through other senses.
The study follows the experimental method, through using artistic printing techniques, which allow printing with prominent textur

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2024
Journal Name
Buildings
Reduced Volume Approach to Evaluate Biaxial Bubbled Slabs’ Resistance to Punching Shear
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The bubbled slab, a type of reinforced concrete (RC) slab with plastic voids, is an innovative design that employs a biaxial distribution of voiding formers within the slab to reduce the slab’s self-weight while preserving a load-carrying capacity that is approximately comparable to that of solid slabs. This paper presents a new approach for figuring out the effective critical shear perimeter of voided slabs using the reduced-volume concept of concrete. This approach aims to reduce the coefficient of variation of the current design standards, namely the ACI 318-19 and Eurocode 2, for assessing the slabs’ resistance to punching shear. Our experimental program investigated the impact of voiding former patterns and the location of

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effects of Nitrogen and Sulfur Sprays on the Growth and Production of Broccoli Brassica Oleracea var. Italica L.: nitrogen and sulfur spray enhance broccoli growth and production
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In order to achieve optimal plant growth and production, essential nutrients must be readily available in adequate quantities and in a balanced proportion to give a good yield, especially broccoli which has health benefits that may not be found in many other plants. For this purpose, this experiment was carried out during the seasons 2019/2020 in the botanical garden of the Department of Biology, College of Science for Women, University of Baghdad, to study the effects of nitrogen and sulphur and their interaction on eight parameters reflecting the overall traits of vegetative growth, yield, and chlorophyll content of broccoli Brassica oleracea L. (var. italic JASSMINE F1 Hybrid). A factorial design with three replicates was use

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-adab Journal
Models of Phonological Loanword Adaptation
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Borrowing in linguistics refers to the process whereby a group of speakers incorporates certain foreign linguistic components into their home language via a process known as linguistic borrowing. The process by which these foreign linguistic elements, known as loanwords, go through phonological, morphological, or semantic changes in order for them to fit the grammar of the recipient language is referred to as loanword adaptation. Loanwords go through these changes in order for them to become compatible with the grammar of the recipient language. One of the most divisive topics in loanword phonology is whether adaptations occur at the phonemic or phonetic levels, and current literature distinguishes three primary viewpoints: nativiza

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 18 2018
Journal Name
Lambert Academic Publishing
Mathematical Models For Contamination Soil
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 23 2018
Journal Name
Scientific Conference
Philosophy of Abstraction and Construction of Space in Contemporary Iraqi Theater
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Philosophy of Abstraction and Construction of Space in Contemporary Iraqi Theater Abstract The aesthetic and stylistic features in the theatrical play develop according to the changes of the age and its developments. Stylistic forms different from the prevailing and familiar in the visions of contemporary theatre directors emerged which adopt the removal of traditional awareness in the creation of the visual space of theatrical discourse, through adopting contemporary formats and structures which depend on the abstraction representations in the aesthetic construction of the contemporary theatre show which is one of the prerequisites of the postmodern theater, that produces aesthetic data based on abstract metaphors in the formation of th

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 22 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effect of Steel Fibers on the Properties of Refractory Free Cement Concrete
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Free cement refractory concrete is a type of refractory concrete with replacing alumina cement by bonding materials such as white kaolin, red kaolin and fumed silica. The free cement refractory concrete used in many applications like Petrochemicals, iron furnaces and cement production industries. The research clarifies the effect of steel fibers with two types crimped steel fibers and hooked steel
fibers with percentages 0.5%, 1% and 1.5% by volume from weight of bauxite aggregates. The additions of steel fibers with two types gave good properties in high temperatures where the specimens keep the dimension without failure and the properties made the best. the percentage of increasing for thermal conductivity was 44% for 1.5% crimped

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