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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 10 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Relation of Results to Objectives of Media Research – an Evaluative: Study of Research of al-Baath al-iilami Journal from 2007 to 2016
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The main idea of this research is that the researcher believes that media research remains useless unless its goals and results are achieved by using the correct scientific tools. The researcher chooses 100 research papers of about 35% of the published ones, 10 of them are excluded because they are outside media. We use a simple and randomized sample including the three departments of media: journalism, television and radio journalism and public relations. The researcher adopts statistical methods such as Fay coefficient, correlation coefficient, Pearson correlation coefficient and straight line equation.
The researcher uses an analytical form followed by analysis of content, them the scale. The results are found in 58 researches, w

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Factors affecting physician commitment to insight
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The physician's commitment to medical insight is affected by several factors that vary from patient to patient in terms of the nature of the disease, the severity of the disease, the age of the patient, and the purpose of undergoing medical intervention. There are circumstances surrounding patients that require the physician to reduce the insight towards them, by concealing medical information. The physician must firmly commit to expanding the scope of his vision to a wider extent than in normal medical work. Therefore, we will discuss in this regard the cases in which medical explanation is reduced and the cases that require confirmation in the following order.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian methods to estimate sub - population
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The aim of the research is to estimate the hidden population. Here، the number of drug users in Baghdad was calculated for the male age group (15-60) years old ، based on the Bayesian models. These models are used to treat some of the bias in the Killworth method Accredited in many countries of the world.

Four models were used: random degree، Barrier effects، Transmission bias، the first model being random، an extension of the Killworth model، adding random effects such as variance and uncertainty Through the size of the personal network، and when expanded by adding the fact that the respondents have different tendencies، the mixture of non-random variables with random to produce

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Mustansiriyah Journal Of Sports Science
The use of training methods in accordance with special exercises to develop flexibility and perform the skills of shooting from above the chest (abduction) to wrestlers ages (14-15)"
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Evolution has become a feature of this era because of the speed that makes it open multiple horizons and many to identify everything that is new in different areas and also characterized by the competitive position of emotional attitudes changing depending on the positions of winning and defeat, and the use of training methods are the most important pillars of the game of wrestling, The methods contribute to raising the level of the wrestler and refining his physical and skill potential. The problem of the research is that the shooting exercises from above the chest are very important in Roman wrestling and can be terminated by the player. Through very personal interviews for coaches and concluded that there is a weakness in the level of fl

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Re-engineering management processes and its impact on the strategic decision-making process Field study on the College of Education / University of Mustansiriya / Iraq
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The aim of the research is to identify both the re-engineering of management processes and the strategic decision-making process in the research community and determine the nature of the correlation between the two variables and know the relationship between them to achieve the research goal. The researcher used a descriptive and analytical method. The research community consists of a group of professors and staff of the College of Education affiliated to the University of Mustansiriya in Baghdad, which their number were (45),  the researcher has distributed the forms to all members of the sample,  only (3) forms were excluded for invalidity and thus the number of forms approved in the analysis were (42) forms. The rese

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Printmaking Techniques to Enable People with Visual Impairment to Taste Print Artworks
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The study aims to integrate the visually impaired people into the art connoisseur community through producing special print artworks to enable the visually impaired people to use their other senses to feel artworks by using artistic printing techniques through adding some prominent materials to the printing colors or making an impact that visually impaired people can perceive using their other senses. This study also aims to set up art exhibitions that display tangible works that can enable visually impaired people to feel artwork and understand its elements to enable them to feel it through other senses.
The study follows the experimental method, through using artistic printing techniques, which allow printing with prominent textur

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2024
Journal Name
Buildings
Reduced Volume Approach to Evaluate Biaxial Bubbled Slabs’ Resistance to Punching Shear
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The bubbled slab, a type of reinforced concrete (RC) slab with plastic voids, is an innovative design that employs a biaxial distribution of voiding formers within the slab to reduce the slab’s self-weight while preserving a load-carrying capacity that is approximately comparable to that of solid slabs. This paper presents a new approach for figuring out the effective critical shear perimeter of voided slabs using the reduced-volume concept of concrete. This approach aims to reduce the coefficient of variation of the current design standards, namely the ACI 318-19 and Eurocode 2, for assessing the slabs’ resistance to punching shear. Our experimental program investigated the impact of voiding former patterns and the location of

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2025
Journal Name
Basic Education College Magazine For Educational And Humanities Sciences
Measure awareness Petknlogia the information and its impact on the attainment of knowledge to solve the problems of scientific research material for the students of the fourth stage at the Faculty of Physical Education for Girls
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يعتقد البعض ان مفهوم العلم يعني الآلات والاجهزة العلمية (تقنيات التعليم) وهي لا تختلف عن مفهوم تكنولوجيا المعلومات , ويعد هذا الاعتقاد خاطئ , لان العلم هو بناء المعرفة العلمية المنظمة والتي يتم التوصل اليها عن طريق البحث العلمي , اما تكنولوجيا المعلومات فهي "التطبيقات العملية للمعرفة العلمية في مختلف المجالات ذات الفائدة المباشرة بحياة الانسان, او هي النواحي التطبيقية للعلم وما يرتبط بها من آلات واجهزة".

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2007
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Continuous De-emulsification of Crude Oil Using Packed Column Under Various Conditions
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This research dealt with desalting of East Baghdad crude oil using pellets of either anionic, PVC, quartz, PE, PP or
nonionic at different temperature ranging from 30 to 80 °C, pH from 6 to 8, time from 2 to 20 minutes, volume percent
washing water from 5 to 25% and fluid velocity from 0.5 to 0.8 m/s under voltage from 2 to 6 kV and / or using additives
such as alkyl benzene sulphonate or sodium stearate. The optimum conditions and materials were reported to remove
most of water from East Baghdad wet crude oil.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Vibration Analysis of Cross-Ply Plates Under Initial Stress Using Refined Theory
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Natural frequency under initial stresses for simply supported cross-ply composite laminated plates (E glass- fiber) are obtained using Refind theory (RPT). This theory accounts for parabolic distribution of the transverse shear strain through the plate thickness and satisfies the zero traction boundary conditions on the surfaces of the plate without using shear correction factors. The governing equations for Eigen value problem under initial stress are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution for simply supported cross-ply symmetric and antisymmetric laminated plates. The effect of many design factors such as modulus ratio, thickness ratio and number of laminates on the Natural frequency and buckling stresses

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