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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects

تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Performance Estimation of Solar Imagery Using Different Types of Atmospheric Turbulence Models

     This paper proposed several approaches for estimating the optical turbulence of the Earth’s atmosphere and their effect on solar images’ resolution using ground-based telescopes based on von Kárman, Kolmogorov, and modified von Kárman PSDs models. The results showed a strong correlation coefficient for the modified von Kármán model of atmospheric representation. As can be seen in the case where solar adaptive optics have been properly designed, they typically decrease aberration considerably and provide greatly improved imagery.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The instrumental support search strategies and avoid coping to psychological stressors and their relationship to the cognitive motivation of Al-Anbar University students.

the Current research aims to identify the psychological stressors coping strategies and their relationship to the cognitive motivation among Al-Anbar University students through the following hypotheses: 1) no statistically significant differences at a level (0.05) among the sample according to the instrumental support strategy depending on the variable type and specialization, 2) No statistically significant differences at a level (0.05) among the sample in regard of coping avoiding strategy depending on the variable type and specialization, 3) There is no statistically significant difference at a level (0.05) in cognitive motivation level among Al-Anbar University students, 4) No statistically significant differences at a level (0.05)

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Foreign Policy of Iran Towards Arabian Gulf (The Horizon of Future)

Iran Regional and Foreign Security Policies Gulf. The long history of regional and other conflicts which their severity increased because of appearance of modern states and cultural and lingual ancient differences resulted in deep feeling of doubt and suspicion between Iran and its Arab neighbors .Meanwhile the two sides have several interests common points , the moist important is the strategic and commercial interests . The fears and objective procedures based on the continuing evaluation of Iran abilities and needs direct security policies in internal and foreign affairs concerning the world in Gulf specially.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Biodiversity and Genetic Relationships to the Species for the genus Gladiolus L. (Iridaceae) Wild Growing in Iraq Using RAPD-PCR Technique

This study observed the genetic diversity and relationships among 4 species belonging to genus Gladiolus L. , by using the Random  Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique , the study  includes extraction of genomic DNA from the dray leaves by using commercial kit . 4 random primers  used the produced of many polymorphic bands among the 4 species , it was also possible to fined the DNA fingerprint of all studied species.Through the appearance of a number of bands that were unique to each species.Genetic distances ranged from 0.10 to 0.86, and used cluster  analysis were performed to construct dendrogram.Cluster analysis grouped the 4 species Into tow main clusters depending on their ancestor and their morphological

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Statistical Evaluation of the Planning Process and Scheduling Management for Irrigation and Drainage Projects in the Republic of Iraq

The Research aims to investigate into reality in terms of planning and scheduling management process for sake the implementation and maintenance of irrigation and drainage projects in the Republic of Iraq, with an indication of the most important obstacles that impede the planning and scheduling management process for these projects and ways of addressing them and minimizing their effects.                                                  For the purpose of achieving the goal of the research, a sci

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 05 2019
Journal Name
Gen. Lett. Math
Building a three-dimensional maritime transport model to find the best solution by using the heuristic algorithm

The aim of this research is to construct a three-dimensional maritime transport model to transport nonhomogeneous goods (k) and different transport modes (v) from their sources (i) to their destinations (j), while limiting the optimum quantities v ijk x to be transported at the lowest possible cost v ijk c and time v ijk t using the heuristic algorithm, Transport problems have been widely studied in computer science and process research and are one of the main problems of transport problems that are usually used to reduce the cost or times of transport of goods with a number of sources and a number of destinations and by means of transport to meet the conditions of supply and demand. Transport models are a key tool in logistics an

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Modeling Absolute Deviations Method by using Numerical Methods to measure the dispersion of the proposal for error

Is in this research review of the way minimum absolute deviations values ​​based on linear programming method to estimate the parameters of simple linear regression model and give an overview of this model. We were modeling method deviations of the absolute values ​​proposed using a scale of dispersion and composition of a simple linear regression model based on the proposed measure. Object of the work is to find the capabilities of not affected by abnormal values by using numerical method and at the lowest possible recurrence.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2017
Journal Name
Archive Of Mechanical Engineering
Using the Lid-Driven Cavity Flow to Validate Moment-Based Boundary Conditions for the Lattice Boltzmann Equation
Abstract<p>The accuracy of the Moment Method for imposing no-slip boundary conditions in the lattice Boltzmann algorithm is investigated numerically using lid-driven cavity flow. Boundary conditions are imposed directly upon the hydrodynamic moments of the lattice Boltzmann equations, rather than the distribution functions, to ensure the constraints are satisfied precisely at grid points. Both single and multiple relaxation time models are applied. The results are in excellent agreement with data obtained from state-of-the-art numerical methods and are shown to converge with second order accuracy in grid spacing.</p>
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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using of Different Satellite-Derived Indices to Detect the Spatiotemporal Changes of the Al-Razzaza Lake, Iraq

          Remote sensing and GIS applications (Geoinformatics tools) involve a wide range of techniques for providing a solution for future water resources management and offer an excellent means to improve knowledge of sustainable planning. Al-Razzaza is the second largest lake in Iraq; it is a common source of fishery fortune and floodwater reservoir in southwestern Iraq. In recent years, the lake faced a noticeable amount of desiccation, which is considered a threat to the biodiversity and wildlife of the lake. The study aimed to detect the Lake's spatiotemporal changes from 1988 to 2018. Multi satellite-derived indices were investigated for the extracting of the lake water body. Results showed that the lake volume decrea

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Texture Analysis Image Processing Technique to Study the Effect of Microwave Plasma on the Living Tissue

The present study is a hybrid method of studying the effect of plasma on the living tissue by using the image processing technique. This research explains the effect of microwave plasma on the DNA cell using the comet score application, texture analysis image processing and the effect of microwave plasma on the liver using texture analysis image processing. The study was applied on the mice cells. The exposure to the plasma is done by dividing the mice for four groups, each group includes four mice (control group, 20, 50, 90 second exposure to microwave plasma). The exposure to microwave plasma was done with voltage 175v and gas flow on 2 with room temperature; the statistical features are obtained from the comet score images and the textur

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