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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 16 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Technological Maturity and its role in reinforcing the quality of auditing: An analytical study in Iraqi audit offices
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This paper discusses the role of Auditors' Technological Maturity in reinforcing the quality of auditing profession, through focusing on the concepts of Technological Maturity and quality of auditing profession, as well as designing a proposed model for Technological Maturity which includes five evolutionary and sequential stages, and this proposed model would contribute to reinforce the quality of auditing. This proposed model will be employed in the field of auditing profession because the importance of the development and investment in this profession and the importance of the need for specialized knowledge in Information Technology, and the result of a proposed model is development of technological knowledge for the auditor to reach

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Determine, Predict and Map Soil pH Level by Fiber Optic Sensor
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Abstract<p>Soil pH is one of the main factors to consider before undertaking any agricultural operation. Methods for measuring soil pH vary, but all traditional methods require time, effort, and expertise. This study aimed to determine, predict, and map the spatial distribution of soil pH based on data taken from 50 sites using the Kriging geostatistical tool in ArcGIS as a first step. In the second step, the Support Vector Machines (SVM) machine learning algorithm was used to predict the soil pH based on the CIE-L*a*b values taken from the optical fiber sensor. The standard deviation of the soil pH values was 0.42, which indicates a more reliable measurement and the data distribution is normal.</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue May 16 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Impact of the Internationalization of the Libyan Crisis on the Future of the Political Settlement
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The internationalization of the Libyan crisis and its accompanying militarization of the conflict have played a vital role in hindering to reach a comprehensive political settlement solution in Libya. The increasing international greediness in the Libyan energy resources and the geopolitical importance of the Libyan State led to the involvement of many international and regional powers in this crisis and transformed the Libyan crisis into “proxy war”.  Moreover, the Turkish direct military intervention in the Libyan crisis is considered as one of the main constraints facing the international and regional efforts to settle the Libyan crisis as a result of the Turkish insistence on its military existence in Libya to preserve i

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 03 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Civil Engineering And Technology (ijciet)
Condition Prediction Models of Deteriorated Trunk Sewer Using Multinomial Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network
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Sewer systems are used to convey sewage and/or storm water to sewage treatment plants for disposal by a network of buried sewer pipes, gutters, manholes and pits. Unfortunately, the sewer pipe deteriorates with time leading to the collapsing of the pipe with traffic disruption or clogging of the pipe causing flooding and environmental pollution. Thus, the management and maintenance of the buried pipes are important tasks that require information about the changes of the current and future sewer pipes conditions. In this research, the study was carried on in Baghdad, Iraq and two deteriorations model's multinomial logistic regression and neural network deterioration model NNDM are used to predict sewers future conditions. The results of the

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ij
Mathematical Models for Predicting of Organic and Inorganic Pollutants in Diyala River Using AnalysisNeural Network
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Diyala river is the most important tributaries in Iraq, this river suffering from pollution, therefore, this research aimed to predict organic pollutants that represented by biological oxygen demand BOD, and inorganic pollutants that represented by total dissolved solids TDS for Diyala river in Iraq, the data used in this research were collected for the period from 2011-2016 for the last station in the river known as D17, before the river meeting Tigris river in Baghdad city. Analysis Neural Network ANN was used in order to find the mathematical models, the parameters used to predict BOD were seven parameters EC, Alk, Cl, K, TH, NO3, DO, after removing the less importance parameters. While the parameters that used to predict TDS were fourte

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Performance Evaluation of Al-Karkh Water Treatment Plant Using Model-driven and Data-Driven Models
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Abstract<p>There is a great operational risk to control the day-to-day management in water treatment plants, so water companies are looking for solutions to predict how the treatment processes may be improved due to the increased pressure to remain competitive. This study focused on the mathematical modeling of water treatment processes with the primary motivation to provide tools that can be used to predict the performance of the treatment to enable better control of uncertainty and risk. This research included choosing the most important variables affecting quality standards using the correlation test. According to this test, it was found that the important parameters of raw water: Total Hardn</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering
Esterification Reaction Kinetics Using Ion Exchange Resin Catalyst by Pseudo-Homogenous and Eley-Ridel Models
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This work deals with kinetics and chemical equilibrium studies of esterification reaction of ethanol with acetic acid. The esterification reaction was catalyzed by an acidic ion exchange resin (Amberlyst- 15) using a batch stirred tank reactor. The pseudo-homogenous and Eley-Rideal models were successfully fitted with experimental data. At first, Eley-Rideal model was examined for heterogeneous esterification of acetic acid and ethanol. The pseudo-homogenous model was investigated with a power-law model. The apparent reaction order was determined to be (0.88) for Ethanol and (0.92) for acetic acid with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.981 and 0.988, respectively. The reaction order was determined to be 4.1087x10-3 L0.8/(mol0.8.min) with

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 15 2026
Journal Name
Experimental And Theoretical Nanotechnology
Theoretical analysis of nuclear radius measurement using nuclear structure models and Figuretechnology-enhanced computational approaches
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The accurate determination of nuclear radius is fundamental to understanding nuclear structure and interactions. The present study conducts a comprehensive theoretical analysis of nuclear radius measurements using various nuclear structure models, including the empirical mass-number scaling model, the Hartree-Fock approach, and the relativistic mean-field (RMF) theory. These models are systematically compared against experimental nuclear radii to evaluate their predictive accuracy and assess their strengths and limitations. The study also incorporates an uncertainty analysis to quantify the reliability of theoretical predictions, employing Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference techniques to refine estimations. The results r

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Analysis the Surface Morphology of the Porous Media by using Atomic Force Microscope technique
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An atomic force microscope (AFM) technique is utilized to investigate the polystyrene (PS) impact upon the morphological properties of the outer as well as inner surface of poly vinyl chloride (PVC) porous fibers. Noticeable a new shape of the nodules at the outer and inner surfaces, namely "Crater nodules", has been observed. The fibers surface images have seen to be regular nodular texture at the skin of the inner and outer surfaces at low PS content. At PS content of 6 wt.%, the nodules structure was varied from Crater shape to stripe. While with increasing of PS content, the pore density reduces as a result of increasing the size of the pore at the fiber surface. Moreover, the test of 3D-AFM images shows that the roughness of both su

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Representations and perceptions of anxiety about the future of artistic expression for students in middle school
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The tensions and crises and the psychological pressure as well as the rapid changes and great development which is taking place in the present time. And  witnessing community of wars and conflicts that give rise to future concern among members of the community in general and students in particular, as it included the current research a number of chapters, the First chapter contains the research problem, the important goal, then set researcher terminology that has defined and contained in the title of research in the form (concern the future, artistic expression, middle school). The Second chapter included three sections, the first included the nature of adolescence and traits, characteristics and pr

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