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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Future of Educational Management Reform in Ibn Ashour Vision of Purposes and the Objectives Of The Kingdom's Vision 2030
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The study aims at explaining the extent to which the principles of educational management reform contribute to Ibn Ashour in achieving educational management reform and the extent to which the pillars of the Kingdom's Vision 2030 in the field of Education in achieving the educational management reform. The study also aims to provide a future vision of what the educational administrative reform and its results should be in the Kingdom during the next ten years. To achieve the goals of the study, the researcher followed two approaches: on the theoretical side, he relied on applying the content analysis method. As for the applied side, the researcher adopted the Delphi method by two questionnaires to ask (36) participants from the experts a

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 17 2021
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De PsicologÍa Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte
THE EFFECT OF USING THE ELECTRONIC PARTICIPATORY LEARNING STRATEGY ACCORDING TO THE WEB PROGRAMS IN LEARNING SOME BASIC SKILLS OF BASKETBALL FOR FIRST-GRADE INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL STUDENTS ACCORDING TO THE CURRICULAR COURSE
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The research aims to identify the impact of using the electronic participatory learning strategy according to internet programs in learning some basic basketball skills for middle first graders according to the curricular course, and the sample of research was selected in the deliberate way of students The first stage of intermediate school.As for the problem of research, the researchers said that there is a weakness in the levels of school students in terms of teaching basketball skills, which prompted the researchers to create appropriate solutions by using a participatory learning strategy.The researchers imposed statistically significant differences between pre and post-test tests, in favor of the post tests individually and in favor of

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The dimensions of organizational confidence and its relationship to achieving the strategic position of banks: is an applied research on a sample of private Iraqi banks
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The research aims to show the dimensions of organizational trust represented by (administrative policies opportunities for innovation and self innovation and self- realization,availability of information,prevailing organizational values) and its reiationship to achieving the strategic position of banks represented by formation of expectations,buiiding networks,learning operations As the research was applied in each of the banks (middle east)Iraqi investment,Al-Ahly Iraqi, Business Bay, Al- Mansour investment bank),the qusestionnaire was adopted as a tool to collect data and information from the sample number (138)who are in the site (department director, division ,M.division director ,division officer, unit officer)the statistica

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of the Project Overhead Costs in Iraqi Construction Industry using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)
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This research investigated the importance and priorities of the project overhead costs in Iraq via a questionnaire using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process technique (FAHP). Using this technique is very important in the uncertain circumstances as in our country. The researcher reached to frame an equation through the results of the priorities of weights include the percentages of each of the main items of the project overhead costs. The researcher tested this equation by applying it to one of the completed projects and the results showed suitability for the application. The percentages of the (salaries, grants, and incentives) and (fieldwork requirements) in equation represent approximately two-thirds of project overhe

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology
THE INFLUENCE OF CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF ASPHALT CEMENT ON THE PHYSICAL AND RHEOLOGICAL PROPERTIES
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Failure in asphalt mixture and distress in pavement are major issues to roads infrastructure. Selecting an appropriate chemical composition of asphalt cement is a key component in avoiding these issues. This work aimed to investigate the effect of the chemical composition of different polar fractions on the rheological and physical properties of asphalt cement. Four types of asphalt cement with penetration grades of 20/30, 40/50, 60/70 and 85/100 were divided into four fractions. Complex shear modules, rutting resistance and rotational viscosity of the asphalt cement were determined by using a Dynamic Shear Rheometer and a Rotation Viscometer, respectively. The results show that an increase in the asphaltene content and Gastel index resulte

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Conflict management and its relation to functional performance as perceived by secondary school managers toward the directors of directorates of education in wassat province
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The research aims to; identify the management of conflict as perceived by secondary school managers toward the directors of directorates of education in wassat province, identify functional performance as perceived by secondary school managers toward the directors of directorates of education in wassat province. Besides, explore the relationship between Conflict management and functional performance among the directors of directorates of education in wassat province. A descriptive approach deemed more appropriate with study design. As a tool to collect the data of current research, the author used a questionnaire. Spss tools were used for data analysis

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluating the disclosure level due to Standards & Poor’s (S&P) Indicators And its effect on relevant accounting information An applied research in Baghdad bank
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The world and the business environment are constantly witnessing many economic changes that have led to the expansion of the business' volume due to mergers and the increase in an investments volume and the complexity of business and the transformation of some systems, which was reflected on the size of the risk and uncertainty which led to necessity of a presence of transparent and objective accounting information In the way that reflects the financial performance of the economic units to be available to all users of that information, therefore, The need for the existence of indicators for transparency in the disclosure of accounting information that these units adhere to. Standards & Poor's indicators, which included items

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling Jar Test Results Using Gene Expression to Determine the Optimal Alum Dose in Drinking Water Treatment Plants
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Coagulation is the most important process in drinking water treatment. Alum coagulant increases the aluminum residuals, which have been linked in many studies to Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, it is very important to use it with the very optimal dose. In this paper, four sets of experiments were done to determine the relationship between raw water characteristics: turbidity, pH, alkalinity, temperature, and optimum doses of alum [   .14 O] to form a mathematical equation that could replace the need for jar test experiments. The experiments were performed under different conditions and under different seasonal circumstances. The optimal dose in every set was determined, and used to build a gene expression model (GEP). The models were co

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model
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The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-nahrain Journal For Engineering Sciences
Performance Analysis of FSO under Turbulent Channel Using OSTBC
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Free Space Optics (FSO) plays a vital role in modern wireless communications due to its advantages over fiber optics and RF techniques where a transmission of huge bandwidth and access to remote places become possible. The specific aim of this research is to analyze the Bit-Error Rate (BER) for FSO communication system when the signal is sent the over medium of turbulence channel, where the fading channel is described by the Gamma-Gamma model. The signal quality is improved by using Optical Space-Time Block- Code (OSTBC) and then the BER will be reduced. Optical 2×2 Alamouti scheme required 14 dB bit energy to noise ratio (Eb/N0) at 10-5 bit error rate (BER) which gives 3.5 dB gain as compared to no diversity scheme. Th

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