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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Toward a theoretical model of the terrorist personality and differentiation from psychopathic personality
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The current theoretical research targeted to construct a model of terrorist personality and its differentiation from psychopathic personality . Several assumptions or theories of perspectives of psychopathic personality have been compared with the terrorist personality studies that concerned . The suggested theoretical  model is interrupting the terrorist personality . The conclusions , discussions are mentioned. Finally, recommendation is suggested .

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 26 2013
Journal Name
Astronomy & Astrophysics
High-resolution observations of SDSS J080800.99+483807.7 in the optical and radio domains
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Reservoir Characterization and Rock Typing of Carbonate Reservoir in the Southeast of Iraq
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Flow unit and reservoir rock type identification in carbonates are difficult due to the intricacy of pore networks caused by facies changes and diagenetic processes. On the other hand, these classifications of rock type are necessary for understanding a reservoir and predicting its production performance in the face of any activity. The current study focuses on rock type and flow unit classification for the Mishrif reservoir in Iraq's southeast and the study is based on data from five wells that penetrate it. Integration of several methods was used to determine the flow unit based on well log interpretation and petrophysical properties. The flow units were identified using the Quality Index of Rock and the Indicator of Flow Zone. Th

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Efficient Intrusion Detection Through the Fusion of AI Algorithms and Feature Selection Methods
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With the proliferation of both Internet access and data traffic, recent breaches have brought into sharp focus the need for Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS) to protect networks from more complex cyberattacks. To differentiate between normal network processes and possible attacks, Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) often employ pattern recognition and data mining techniques. Network and host system intrusions, assaults, and policy violations can be automatically detected and classified by an Intrusion Detection System (IDS). Using Python Scikit-Learn the results of this study show that Machine Learning (ML) techniques like Decision Tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) can enhance the effectiveness of an Intrusi

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Bayes and Non-Bayes Estimation Methods for the Parameter of Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution
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In this paper, point estimation for parameter ? of Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution has been investigated by using simulation technique, to estimate the parameter by two sections methods; the first section includes Non-Bayesian estimation methods, such as (Maximum Likelihood estimator method, and Moment estimator method), while the second section includes standard Bayesian estimation method, using two different priors (Inverse Chi-Square and Jeffrey) such as (standard Bayes estimator, and Bayes estimator based on Jeffrey's prior). Comparisons among these methods were made by employing mean square error measure. Simulation technique for different sample sizes has been used to compare between these methods.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Linguistics And English Literature
Human Rights at Stake: Shirley Jackson’s Social and Political Protest in “The Lottery”
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Nowhere is American author Shirley Jackson’s (1916-1965) social and political criticism is so intense than it is in her seminal fictional masterpiece “The Lottery”. Jackson severely denounces injustice through her emphasis on a bizarre social custom in a small American town, in which the winner of the lottery, untraditionally, receives a fatal prize. The readers are left puzzled at the end of the story as Tessie Hutchinson, the unfortunate female winner, is stoned to death by the members of her community, and even by her family. This study aims at investigating the author’s social and political implications that lie behind the story, taking into account the historical era in which the story was published (the aftermath of th

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Madenat Alelem College
Morphological description and Histological structure of the liver in Passer domesticus (House sparrow)
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This study showed that liver of Passer domesticus bilobed the right lobe is cardiac shape while the left is elliptical and the liver colour is brown. It is occupying most of anterior and middle parts of abdominal cavity. The liver is surrounded by Glison capsule which is represented by a thin layer of connective tissue with septum extend peripherally in liver tissue. The liver tissue is formed from polyhedral hepatocyte arrange as irregular hepatic cord surrounded the central vein. Each cell contains one or two nucleus with one or more nucleolus. The blood sinusoid appeared between the liver cells .The hepatic cord arranged radially around the central vein. The portal area is clear and surrounded by connective tissue. Gallbladder is almost

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
New Method for the Determination of DL-Histidine by FIA and Chemiluminometric Detection
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This paper present a simple and sensitive method for the determination of DL-Histidine using FIA-Chemiluminometric measurement resulted from oxidation of luminol molecule by hydrogen peroxide in alkaline medium in the presence of DL-Histidine. Using 70?l. sample linear plot with a coefficient of determination 95.79% for (5-60) mmol.L-1 while for a quadratic relation C.O.D = 96.44% for (5-80) mmol.L-1 and found that guadratic plot in more representative. Limit of detection was 31.93 ?g DL-Histidine (S/N = 3), repeatability of measurement was less that 5% (n=6). Positive and negative ion interferances was removed by using minicolume containing ion exchange resin located after injection valve position.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of English Linguistics
A Discourse Analysis Study of Comic Words in the American and British Sitcoms
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DBN Rashid, International Journal of English Linguistics, 2019 - Cited by 2

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 09 2023
Journal Name
Beirut: Al-arif Publishing House
Arabic-English Dictionary of Euphemistic and Non-literal Expressions in the Glorious Qur’an
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