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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Reliability and Failure Probability Functions of the m-Consecutive-k-out-of-n: F Linear and Circular Systems
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The m-consecutive-k-out-of-n: F linear and circular system consists of n sequentially connected components; the components are ordered on a line or a circle; it fails if there are at least m non-overlapping runs of consecutive-k failed components. This paper proposes the reliability and failure probability functions for both linearly and circularly m-consecutive-k-out-of-n: F systems. More precisely, the failure states of the system components are separated into two collections (the working and the failure collections); where each one is defined as a collection of finite mutual disjoint classes of the system states. Illustrative example is provided.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Comparative Effects of Fentanyl, Medazolam, Lignocaine and Propranolol on Controlling the Hemodynamic Pressor Response during Laryngoscopy and Intubation
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Laryngoscopy and tracheal intubation are considered the most invasive stimuli in anesthesia. They provoked cardiovascular responses that include hypertension, tachycardia and dysrhythmias. Various pharmacological approaches have been used to blunt or attenuate such pressor responses. The present study was designed to evaluate the effect of medazolom, lignocaine and propranolol as a valuable adjuvant to fentanyl in attenuating hemodynamic responses to endotracheal intubation in normotensive patients. Thirty two patient with physical status I or II according to the score of American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA), scheduled for elective surgery under standard general anesthesia, were randomly allocated into four groups (8 patients in ea

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 12 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study and measurements of the uranium and amorphous crystals concentrations in urine samples of breast cancer female patients
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In this work, Kinetic Phosphorescence Analyzer (KPA) has been used to measure the concentrations of uranium (UC) and Amorphous crystals (AMO) in urine samples of breast cancer patients in Baghdad. Additionally, a relation between UC and AMO with respect to patient's age has been deduced and studied.
Forty one urine samples of patients and five for healthy were taken from females lived in different residential area of Baghdad. The measured maximum UC value for urine samples of patients was 2.35 ± 0.053, the minimum value was 0.86 ± 0.034 μg/L, and an overall average was 1.6 ± 0.027 μg/L while the average UC for healthy females was 1.03 ± 0.020 μg/L.
From these results, AMO concentrations were found for all breast cancer patie

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 10 2024
Journal Name
Humanities And Social Sciences Communications
The mediating role of accounting information systems in small and medium enterprise strategies and organizational performance in Iraq
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Abstract<p>This paper examined accounting information systems (AIS) as a mediator between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) strategies, including (finance source, administrative innovation, organizational culture, developing capabilities levels of SMEs, information source, development of business managers, and technological innovation) and organizational performance. In this quantitative study, 450 self-administered questionnaires were distributed to the managers and owners of SMEs using purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) method via SmartPLS3 Software. The study offers empirical findings on the importance of AIS as a mediator, considers various factors, a</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of the Static and Dynamic Nuclear Properties and Form Factors for Some Magnesium Isotopes 29-34 Mg
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Nuclear structure of 29-34Mg isotopes toward neutron dripline have been investigated using shell model with Skyrme-Hartree–Fock calculations. In particular nuclear densities for proton, neutron, mass and charge densities with their corresponding rms radii, neutron skin thicknesses and inelastic electron scattering form factors are calculated for positive low-lying states. The deduced results are discussed for the transverse form factor and compared with the available experimental data. It has been confirmed that the combining shell model with Hartree-Fock mean field method with Skyrme interaction can accommodate very well the nuclear excitation properties and can reach a highly descriptive and predictive power when investiga

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2002
Journal Name
Msc Thesis
Anatomical , Histological and Ultrastructural Study of the Hypophysis and Epiphysis Cerebri in Common Quail . Coturnix coturnix coturnix L
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation and study of the Structural, Morphological and Optical properties of pure Tin Oxide Nanoparticle doped with Cu
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            In this study, pure SnO2 Nanoparticles doped with Cu were synthesized by a chemical precipitation method. Using SnCl2.2H2O, CuCl2.2H2O as raw materials, the materials were annealed at 550°C for 3 hours in order to improve crystallization. The XRD results showed that the samples crystallized in the tetragonal rutile type SnO2 stage. As the average SnO2 crystal size is pure 9nm and varies with the change of Cu doping (0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 3%),( 8.35, 8.36, 8.67, 9 ,7, 8.86)nm respectively an increase in crystal size to 2.5% decreases at this rate and that the crystal of SnO2 does not change with the introduction of Cu, and S

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of methanol and water plant extracts of Cordia myxa on Some pathogenitic bacteria and Candida albicans
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this study aimed to study the effect of Cordia myxa extract on the growth and activities of the following types of bacteria : Escherichia coli , Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Proteus Spp., Klebsiella pneumoniae , Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pyogenes , Bacillus subtilus, and the yeast Candida albicans .the results showed an inhibitory effect of the methanol extract on both the growth and activity of the tested microbes .this was reflected by the minimum inhibitory concentration ( MIC ) of different type of bacteria and the yeast.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Conversion And Management
Simultaneous energy storage and recovery in the triplex-tube heat exchanger with PCM, copper fins and Al2O3 nanoparticles
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Discussion on the Structural Design Index and Design Method of Widening and Splicing Lane of Old Asphalt Pavement
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The splicing design of the existing road and the new road in the expansion project is an important part of the design work. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and the load effect of pavement structure on splicing, this paper points out that tensile crack or shear failure may occur at the splicing under the repeated action of the traffic load on the new/old pavement. According to the current structure design code of asphalt pavement in China, it is proposed that the horizontal tensile stress at the bottom of the splicing layer and the vertical shear stress at other layers of the splicing line should be controlled by adjusting the position and size of the excavated steps in addition to the conventional design ind

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