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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Civilizational Manifestations in the City of Astrabath in the Sixth Century AH
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The current study is concerned with presenting a descriptive study of the history of the city of Astrabath in the sixth century AH. The problem that the research tried to answer is represented in the investigation of historical news, and the study of the most prominent cultural aspects which characterizing that city. The research also aims to reach the geographical location of that city, its name and its suburbs. The importance of the research lies in the knowledge of everything related to the role of the civilization of Astrabath, as well as tracing the entry of the Arabs to it, so that it became a cultural, economic and scientific center and its historical role in the sixth century AH. The research reminde us with the scientific role o

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The shapes of adjacent structures for informing the stage show for children
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This research talked about the importance of adjacent structures for informing the stage show for children. The researcher began from the importance of adjacent structures for informing the show to introduce the various and different proofs, on the level of creativity and artistic shape of the accomplishment over it’s shifts that contribute to formation the show and it's intellectual, artistic, technical and cognitive Marks that contribute in dynamism the interactive show and contact the idea that connect with the design and directional vision for the beauty and cognitive. Lead to the eager operation in attention, sensitive and attractive the child. The research consist of four chapters: The first chapter include methodological framewo

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The role of the woman in protecting children from wrong behavioral deviations
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Wrong behavioral deviations among youth witnessed an obvious growing, some of these deviations are, robbery, drug and internet addiction, and smoking. Additionally, intellectual extremism and the disrespect of the traditions and genuine customs, In light of this issue, the research aims to shed light on the educational and preventative role of the woman in protecting and immunizing children from the wrong behavioral deviations. The woman has a significant and influential role in the society in general and in her family, in particular to the responsibility lies on her. The research shed light on the manifestations of behavioral deviation in children and the mechanisms of prevention and treatment. The research concluded with a set of recom

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political Transformations in The Republic of Turkmenistan During the Period (1991-2021)
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After the fall of the Soviet Union, a number of Eastern Bloc countries and Soviet republics have witnessed political transition. However, Turkmenistan, as one of the former Soviet republics, succeeded to preserve the authoritarian nature of the former Soviet regime. This study seeks to answer a number of research questions, the most prominent of which are: How were the political elite in Turkmenistan able to preserve the legacy of the Soviet policy based on centralization of power and individual rule?. The study reaches a set of conclusions, the most important of which are:

1-The roots of the tyranny in Turkmenistan are du to internal and external structural factors. The most important of which are: the former Soviet policies of m

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 14 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Space Treatment in the Ceramic Sculpture of the Potter "Shinyar Abdua – Allah"
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Space is considered as an important element in constructing artwork, it can be a dominant and fulfilled part that adds new existence to the content. Each artwork must have a space artistically or analytically. The internal and eternal space of artwork have associated with each other in order to be ann important connected unit that establishes the work epressions and helps the audience to understand it. Such kind of works can be represented by the works of the potter (Sheinyor Abdu Allah) which have uarious expressions of space which this study is based on.The study aims at finding out the treatment of apace in the ceramic sculpture works of the potter (Sheinyar Abdu Allah).The second chapter has many sections. T

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Dominant Values of Universities students in the light of some variables
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Current research strives to achieve the following aims:

  1. Develop a scale for dominant values of Tikrit university students.
  2. Measuring the dominant of Tikrit university students.
  3. Identifying the significant differences among dominant values of Tikrit university students according to(sex, specialty, time).
  4. Measuring the dominant values of each one of the six fields of the scale.
  5. Identifying the differences in dominant values of each field according to the sex variables.

The current research has limi

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the Islamic Development Bank Group on Economic Capacity Building
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This paper reflects the evidence of the Islamic Development Bank's role in building human and institutional capacities in Member States and assisting governments in achieving economic development. The Bank's activities in the area of ​​capacity development are an important part in following up the economic developments, And help governments to build and formulate effective policies and institutions to implement more effective macro policies leading to better economic outcomes. It is therefore helpful to help Member States increase their resources, modernize their banking systems, establish effective legal frameworks and improve Reports on macroeconomic and financial statistics. The Bank has faced many challenges and risks tha

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflecting the mental abilities of decision-makers in defining the strategic orientation
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        The purpose of this research is to highlight the nature of the relationship between the mental abilities of decision makers and strategic orientation . The intellectual capacity of decision-makers is the cornerstone for the implementation of all the tasks and duties of the Organization and constitutes the most important of its capabilities. As a result of the sharp changes in the environment in which it operates, this organization must accurately define its strategic directions to ensure its

survival and continuity. The problem of field research was to answer a fundamental question: Is the Iraqi director aware of how to employ mental abilities in strategic direc

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The typical path of compliance control in the verification of tax revenues
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The research aims to contribute to the consolidation of scientific knowledge of compliance control and its role in verifying the proper disposal of funds to manage the wheel of the economy towards achieving targeted development and preserving public money, as well as clarifying the role of tax revenues in strengthening the public treasury and achieving social justice. The analytical descriptive approach was adopted in the process of analyzing The quantitative data collected through personal interviews, and the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the contribution of compliance control according to its three principles. (Transparency, accountability, and inclusiveness) on the availability

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
the mechanism of employing the numbered personality in structuring scientific imaginary movies
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The researcher chose her research which is imprinted ( the mechanism of employing the numbered personality in structuring scientific imaginary movies) because it’s found in modern employing of the numbered personalities of the movies that are designed by computers which made the directors and the producers to exploit these numbered development technologies in designing numbered personalities, in order to make them heroes instead of the actual actors in the cinema scene, it’s divided the research to five chapters, the first chapter, the methodical fine which includes, the problem of the research, the aim of the research includes, the importance of the research and it’s details, and the chapter concludes limiting the important terms,

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