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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
The Effect of the Five Fingers Strategy and Traffic Signals Strategy on Physics First Grade Intermediate School Students' Achievement and Personal Intelligence
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The aim of this research is to know the effect of two strategies of active learning, the five fingers and traffic signals, on the first grade intermediate level student's achievement and personal intelligence. The research sample was chosen from the Al- Mansour intermediate school for boys, including (101) students divided into three groups chosen randomly which represented the first experimental group (32) students, the second experimental group (34) students, and the control group (33) students. To achieve the research aims, the research prepared a physics achievement test containing (26) items, and a personal intelligence test containing (20) items. The psychometric characteristics, of the tests were checked up the following results were

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Acute and Chronic Toxicity of Copper on The Behavioral Responses and Hematological Parameters of Freshwater Fish, Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)
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The present study was conducted to examine toxicological effects of copper sulfate (Cu) in common carp fish (Cyprinus carpio L.). The LC50 (median lethal concentrations) of copper on Cyprinus carpio were 3.64, 3.36, 3.04, 2.65 mg/L respectively. In general, behavioral responses of the fishes exposed to copper included uncontrolled swimming, erratic movements, loss of balance, swam near the water surface with sudden jerky movements. Haematological parameters such, red blood cells (RBC), white blood cells (WBC), haemoglobin (Hb), Packed cell volume (PCV), mean cell volume (MCV) mean cell haemoglobin (MCH), and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were studied. The obtained results indicated that the (RBC) and (WBC) have increas

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2015
Journal Name
European Journal Of Chemistry
Reaction pathways and transition states of the C-C and C-H bond cleavage in the aromatic pyrenemolecule - A Density Functional study
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The activation and reaction energies of the C-C and C-H bonds cleavage in pyrene molecule are calculated applying the Density Functional Theory and 6-311G Gaussian basis. Different values for the energies result for the different bonds, depending on the location of the bond and the structure of the corresponding transition states. The C-C bond cleavage reactions include H atom migration, in many cases, leading to the formation of CH2 groups and H-C≡C- acetylenic fragments. The activation energy values of the C-C reactions are greater than 190.00 kcal/mol for all bonds, those for the C-H bonds are greater than 160.00 kcal/mol. The reaction energy values for the C-C bonds range between 56.497 to 191.503 kcal/mol. As for the C-H cleavage rea

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Association between Emotional Intelligence and Academic Adaptation among a Sample of Gifted Students in the Intermediate and Secondary Schools in Jeddah
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This study aims to examine the relationship between emotional intelligence and academic adaptation among a sample of gifted students in intermediate and high schools in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The study also seeks to examine the differences between group means in emotional intelligence and academic adaptation due to demographic variables (gender and school level). In addition, the study aims to examine the role of emotional intelligence in predicting the level of academic adaptation. The researcher performed the descriptive, correlational, predictive, and comparative approaches to collect the data from a sample comprised of (309) gifted students using the emotional intelligence scale developed by Bar-on (2000), whi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Procedia
The relationship of Nuclear Decay Methods (alpha and beta) Particles with the Nuclear Deformation for Nuclei inUranium-238 and Thorium -232 Series
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 25 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Comparing the Effects of Ethyl Elcoholic and Aquatic Extracts and Alkaline Compounds of Some Plants on the Bioefficacy of Culex pipiens (Diptera:Culicidae)
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       The results of the present study show the biological effects of ethyl elcoholic and aquatic extracts as well as alkaloids compounds  of Atriplex helmius and Capparis spinosa  roots. The results demonstrated the superiority of the cold aqueous extract of C. capparis at the highest concentration of 20 mg / ml, as the killing rate was 81.16% for the second  larval instar of Cx. pipiens after 72 hours of exposure. While, the killing rate caused by the same treatment was 79.52% for the third larval instar. The results also showed the superiority of the alcoholic extract against C.  spinosa , as the killing rate reached 98.55% for the

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The pathological changes of the digestive system for Anas platyrhychos in Baghdad and Kut in Iraq which infectel with platyhelminthes and nematodes
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A total of 247 Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos platyrhynchos L.) from Baghdad and Kut were examined for the Cestodes Diorchis stefanskii Sobolevicanthes gracilis; Hymenolepis mastigopraditae and the Nematode Amidostomum acutum in the first time in Iraq . Among these , 151 birds were found infected by these helminthes It has been found small nodules on the external surface of the intestine , Ulceration of mucosa inflammatory infiltrate , Oedemats changes and hyperplasia in the section of infected intestine were noticed.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
Evaluation of the Relationship between Osteoporosis and Body Fat Mass of the Upper and Lower Extremities by Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry
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Background: Using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, body fat mass has been determined. The assessment of body fat mass was conducted utilizing dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry analysis of the pelvis and vertebral column. While it is acknowledged that osteoporosis can impact both body fat mass and bone mineral density, the particulars of this relationship currently remain uncertain. Objective: The aim of the present investigation is to assess gender differences in the effects of osteoporosis on the body fat mass of the upper and lower extremities. Method: 170 individuals participated (85 males and 85 females) in this study. Patients who presented with bone discomfort consisted of 40 males and 40 females. In addition, 90 apparently he

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Jurassic and Deep Structures Inferred from Gravity Data Depending on Stripping Technique for The Uppermost Layers in Central and Southern Iraq
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      The gravity anomalies of the Jurassic and deep structures were obtained by stripping the gravity effect of Cretaceous and Tertiary formations from the available Bouguer gravity map in central and south Iraq. The gravity effect of the stripped layers was determined depending on the density log or the density density obtained from the sonic log. The density relation with the seismic velocity of Gardner et al (1974) was used to obtain density from sonic logs in case of a lack of density log. The average density of the Cretaceous and Tertiary formation were determined then the density contrast of these formations was obtained. The density contrast and thickness of all stratigraphic formations in the area between the sea level to t

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Investigation in vitro the effect of X-rays, gamma rays and beta particles on the physical and structural characteristics of human teeth
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