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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 25 2017
Journal Name
J. Entomol. Zool. Studies
Histological and histochemical observations of the small Intestine in the indigenous Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa)
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LO Hamza, NA Al-Mansor, J. Entomol. Zool. Studies, 2017 - Cited by 14

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 31 2024
Journal Name
قضايا سياسية
The Iraqi Woman in the Face of Climate Change: Challenges, Obstacles, and Empowerment Strategies
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استهدف البحث تشخيص وتحليل الاسباب التي تجعل المرأة العراقية أكثر تأثراً من الرجل بعوامل التغيرات المناخية، فضلاً عن زيادة الوعي بقضية المرأة في هذا المجال، لأن موضوع دمجها في صياغة السياسات والاستراتيجيات المتعلقة بالتغير المناخي أصبح قضية عالمية، ويحتل مرتبة متقدمة في مؤشرات تحقيق أهداف التنمية المستدامة، وأستخدمت الباحثة المنهج الوصفي والتحليلي والاحصائي في تحليل محاور البحث، وتوصل البحث الى إستن

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Peptide Science
Studies on the antileishmanial properties of the antimicrobial peptides temporin A, B and 1Sa
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 07 2023
Journal Name
The New Armenian Medical Journal
ASSOCIATION BETWEEN CAFFEINE, ANXIETY AND THE OCCURRENCE OF APHTHOUS STOMATITIS IN THE ARMENIAN ETHNICITY
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Abstract Introduction: Aphthous stomatitis is a recurring oral ulceration condition that affects a significant proportion of the population. While several factors have been proposed to contribute to its occurrence, the link between caffeine consumption, anxiety levels, and the development of aphthous stomatitis remains unknown. This survey-based study aimed to understand the association between coffee, anxiety, and the development of aphthous stomatitis in this specific demographic, which can provide useful insights for medical management as well as preventive strategies. Material and methods: A structured online questionnaire was distributed via various social media platforms targeting a sample of the Armenian population. The quest

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Phenomenon of Division and Modification of The Individual Houses in Baghdad after 2003
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The Research deals with the negative phenomena which appeared in the urban scenes of the  Iraqi cities after 2003, particularly trespassing the architectural design of the urban Individual houses.  Many academic researchers , critics, and cultural circles, drawn attention to the impact of  political and cultural variable change on such phenomena  without detailed  analysis . The research problem  is set according to central questions : If the phenomena is the trespass , what
are the sides which are being trespassed  in the division of the individual house? , If the diagnosis of the phenomena denotes perceived repetition of the cases , So what's size of this transposes on the architectural design of t

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify t

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
the effect of temperatures and humidity rates on the mean weight loss from developement
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The effect of some environmental factors in the loss rate for high weights virgins are full to the screwworm fly of the ancient world and included temperatures 15,20,25,30,35,40 study showed that the rate of loss in weight virgins advanced to full participants at a temperature of 15 C while notgets evolution

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-adab Journal
THE SEMIOTIC COMPONENT OF LACUNS AND THEIR BASIC TYPES IN THE LANGUAGE: THEORETICAL SUBSTANTIATION
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The article attempts to provide the theoretical fundamentals for the semiotic component of lacunae in a language. The definitions of the following notions have been represented: 1) lacunarity as a complex phenomenon that works in the modes of language, speech and speech behaviour; 2) lacuna as a gap, an empty space, which lacks something, which may be characteristic of a written work. The author of the article considers the main classes of lacunae, among which are: 1) generic lacunae, which reflect the absence of a common name for a class of objects; 2) species lacunae are the absence of specific names, names of individual types of objects or phenomena; 3) intralingual lacunae are found within the paradigms of one language; 4) interlanguage

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 27 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Effect of the Altitudes and Eccentricity of the Initial Orbit on Satellite Transition Efficiency
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This research dealt with choosing the best satellite parking orbit and then the transition of the satellite from the low Earth orbit to the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The aim of this research is to achieve this transition with the highest possible efficiency (lowest possible energy, time, and fuel consumption with highest accuracy) in the case of two different inclination orbits. This requires choosing a suitable primary parking orbit. All of the methods discussed in previous studies are based on two orbits at the same plane, mostly applying the circular orbit as an initial orbit. This transition required the use of the advanced technique of the Hohmann transfer method for the elliptical orbits, as we did in an earlier research, namely

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Study the Effect of Ceramic Coating on the Performance and Emissions of Diesel Engine
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In this study, the effect of ceramic coating on the performance and gases emission on diesel engine was investigated. A four-stroke, direct injected, single cylinder, diesel engine was tested at constant speed and at different load conditions without coating. Then, the inlet and exhaust valves faces were coated by about 500µm with ceramic materials. Ceramic layers were made of YttriaStabilized Zirconia (YSZ), and NiCrAl as a bond coat. The coating technique adapted in this work is the flame spray method. The engine with valves ceramiccoated research was tested for the same operation conditions of the engine (without coating). The results indicate a reduction in both fuel consumption by about 7.6% and particulate emissions by about (13

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