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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 24 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-mamoon College
Subject Review: Toxic leadership in the workplace environment
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حضيت القيادة باهتمام كبير من قبل الباحثين ودورها الإيجابي في التأثير على الموظفين ونجاح المنظمات، في الآونة الأخير بدأت الدراسات تركز على الجانب المظلم للقيادة وتأثيرها على التابعين وبيئة العمل، وقد تم تحديد القيادة السامة بأنها أخطر الأساليب القيادية التي تتسبب بتكاليف مادية ومعنوية على المنظمات بمختلف جوانبها، ان القيادة السامة تأثر على دوافع المرؤوسين وقدرتهم على انجاز المهام، ورغبتهم في الاستمرار في

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Kinetic diversity of the camera in the structure of the cinematographic scene: وفاء سعدي صالح
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  Highlighting the role of the movement and its dramatic dimensions, as an artistic product, whether at the level of cinema or television in general, and the stages of its influence within the structure of the cinematographic scene in particular, had an effective role in the continuation of the structure of the event according to its dramatic and aesthetic process, and from this the research problem crystallized in the following question: What is How the kinetic diversity of the camera in the structure of the cinematographic scene is achieved to achieve the maximum possible benefit by extrapolating all opinions in line with the objectives of the research, the research presented and two topics and the introduction were divided, which

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Effect of the change of Energy Factor on the American-Russian Competition in Europe
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Receipt date:3/13/2021 accepted date:5/26/2021 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

energy is one of the strategic resources within international politics, and this is through the existing competition between the international powers on it, and the global powers have begun to rely on interest in new areas, such as import, depending on new projects an

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of the risks of foreign currency positions in the audit procedures : Applied research
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The research aims to know the extent of the impact of the risks of foreign exchange centers represented in the risks of commitment, exchange rate changes and liquidity risks in audit procedures, and accordingly the research will provide an applied framework of knowledge that shows the relationship between the variables addressed, and the importance of the research lies in the light of its presentation of intellectual, cognitive and applied contributions On the risks of foreign exchange centers and audit procedures, the research community is represented in the banking sector. The sample included nine private commercial banks listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The research relied on a time series consisting of four years that extended fro

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring the efficiency of public spending in the Iraqi economy for the period 2006-2013
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In light of the limited sources of funding suffered by the Iraqi economy, it highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of public expenditure, and if the measurement of the efficiency of public expenditure and identify benchmarks first step of promoting efficiency, the adoption of scientific methods of analysis imperative in promoting the efficiency. Under this framework, the focus was on the methodologies used to measure the efficiency of public spending and supply analysis with trying statement strengths and weaknesses, and make use of it in the measurement of the efficiency of public spending in the Iraqi economy. As well as devise measurable indicators take into account the specificity of the Iraqi economy and the

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
The formal variations of the Quran calligraphy at the beginning of Islam: كفاح جمعة حافظ
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The present research deals with studying the formal variations for the Quranic calligraphy at the beginning of Islam , as being regarded from the original Arabic calligraphies which were developed later till they became as they are now, where the calligraphers in pushing for simulating these original calligraphies and knowing the methods of their writing by the calligraphers at that time.That helped in enriching and developing the aesthetic and designing valuesFor these calligraphies, as being calligraphic achievements represent transmission resulted from the objective, aesthetic and indicative vision in producing the verses according to a certain form. This has a clear impact in tendency to the technical, aesthetic and expressing develo

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Reasons of the Student of Secondary School Abstention From Participation in The Theatrical Activity
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The present study aims at knowing the reasons of the student of secondary school abstention from participation in the theatrical activity, and to know the reasons that resulted in this abstention. In addition to that, the study aims at knowing the differences according to variables (gender, scholastic stage, and major of study). The sample of the study was chosen from the secondary schools in Baghdad in the random manner from Al-Karakh and Al-Rusafa districts of (147) students. The questionnaire was used to collected data.

          The result showed that all the items are intense, the item of (Students do not know how to use their leisure time) obtained the hi

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The role of Iraqi nature in the style of the artist Ayath Abdul Rahman Ameen
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This research aims to clarify the role of Iraqi nature in the style of the artist Ayath Al-Doori. Through it, the spotlight was shed on the aesthetic of Iraqi nature, its importance and its relationship to art, and its pioneering role in the style of the Doori artist. The research included two axes: the theoretical axis and the applied axis. The first theoretical axis deals with two topics: The first topic: the aesthetic of Iraqi nature as part of the life and methods of Iraqi artists from ancient times until today, including the periodic artist. The second topic: the league artist touched on the private life of the league artist. As for the second (applied) axis, it includes the research community, the research sample models, the resear

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 12 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Constructive Mutation of installation Systems in the works of the artist Ali Al-Najar ِArt
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The research entitled: (The Constructive Mutation of installation Systems in the Artworks of the artist Ali Al-Najar) has dealt with the concept of Mutation and its systematizations in installation in the artworks of (Ali Al-Najjar).
The research has four chapters: The first Chapter deals with the methodological framework represented by the basic problem of the research, that is concerned with the constructive mutation of installation systems.
The research aims at finding out the constructive mutation of installation systems in the artwork of ( Ali al-Najar). The research is limited by analyzing visual samples of (Ali Al-Najjar) artworks betwen (1967-1991)
The second chapter deals with the theoretical framework, it has five s

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Prediction of the number of births in the Governorate of Basra for the period (1998-2050)
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The adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d

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