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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Advanced Pharmacy Education And Research
Co-surfactant effect of polyethylene glycol 400 on microemulsion using BCS class II model drug
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 29 2024
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal
Using Infographics as An Educational Technology Tool in EFL Writing: University of Baghdad Case Study
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Infographics have the capability to organize and display information in a way that is easy for viewers to retrieve and make observations. While infographics have been successful in various fields, their potential benefits in composition writing have not been explored. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the perspectives of Iraqi EFL students who used infographics as an educational technology tool in composition writing, and to identify how gender influences students’ performance when using infographics in EFL writing classes. The significance of this study lies in its integration of infographics as an educational technology tool for teaching writing, aligning with the current trend of technology integration in educati

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 29 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Karbala University
Optimization Quantitative Determination of Cimetidine in Pharmaceutical Preparations via Bromothymol Blue Using Central Composite Design
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Correlation of Penetration Rate with Drilling Parameters For an Iraqi Field Using Mud Logging Data
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This paper provides an attempt for modeling rate of penetration (ROP) for an Iraqi oil field with aid of mud logging data. Data of Umm Radhuma formation was selected for this modeling. These data include weight on bit, rotary speed, flow rate and mud density. A statistical approach was applied on these data for improving rate of penetration modeling. As result, an empirical linear ROP model has been developed with good fitness when compared with actual data. Also, a nonlinear regression analysis of different forms was attempted, and the results showed that the power model has good predicting capability with respect to other forms.

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 02 2019
Journal Name
The Fifth Conference On Smart Monitoring, Assessment And Rehabilitation Of Civil Structures Smar 2019
Rehabilitation of Mohammed Al-Qassim Bridge after Fire Attack Using CFRP Sheets: A Case Study
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Sust Journal Of Engineering And Computer Science (jecs)
Virtual failure influence of Roseires dam on Khartoum city using HEC-RAS Hydraulic simulation modeling
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Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated usi

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والإدارية
Improving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application
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Improving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application

Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Rapid Detection of Aspergillus flavus isolates producing aflatoxin using UV light on different culture media
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This study included the isolation and identification of Aspergillus flavus isolates associated with imported American rice grains and local corn grains which collected from local markets, using UV light with 365 nm wave length and different media (PDA, YEA, COA, and CDA ). One hundred and seven fungal isolates were identified in rice and 147 isolates in corn.4 genera and 7 species were associated with grains, the genera were Aspergillus ,Fusarium ,Neurospora ,Penicillium . Aspergillus was dominant with occurrence of 0.47% and frequency of 11.75% in rice grains whereas in corn grains the genus Neurospora was dominant with occurrence of 1.09% and frequency 27.25% ,results revealed that 20 isolates out of 50 A. flavus isolates were able

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Photoinduced interfacial charge transfer processes in solar photocatalysis degradation of methylene blue using nanostructured ZnO
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In this research, design of advanced material for sunlight conversion requires focused research to obtain efficient photocatalytic system. Nanostructured ZnO was synthesized using spin coating technique. The structural, morphological and optical properties of annealed nanostructured ZnO thin film at 390 Co for 3 hours were characterized by x-ray diffraction, atomic force microscope AFM and UV-VIS spectrophotometer. Nanostructured ZnO was applied for removal Methylene Blue (MB) dye from water using sunlight induced photocatalytic process. Overall degradation of MB/ZnO was achieved after 120 minutes of sunlight irradiation while it needs more time for MB alone. The reaction rate constant fit pseudo first order for MB/ZnO degradation was 0.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Link Failure Recovery for a Large-Scale Video Surveillance System using a Software-Defined Network
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The software-defined network (SDN) is a new technology that separates the control plane from data plane for the network devices. One of the most significant issues in the video surveillance system is the link failure. When the path failure occurs, the monitoring center cannot receive the video from the cameras. In this paper, two methods are proposed to solve this problem.  The first method uses the Dijkstra algorithm to re-find the path at the source node switch. The second method uses the Dijkstra algorithm to re-find the path at the ingress node switch (or failed link).

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