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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 06 2025
Journal Name
Innovative Infrastructure Solutions
Understanding the effectiveness of elastomeric and plastomeric polymers on the high-temperature performance of asphalt binders
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The global rise in temperature and the desert climatic conditions prevalent in Middle Eastern countries have exacerbated rutting distress in heavily trafficked highways. Conventional asphalt binders with a high-temperature performance grade (PG 70) have proven inadequate under such extreme conditions, necessitating the development of modified binders with enhanced high-temperature performance. While polymer modification using styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS), an elastomeric polymer, and ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA), a plastomeric polymer, has been widely studied, limited research provides a direct comparison of their effectiveness at both the binder and mixture levels under extremely high-temperature conditions. This study addresses this gap

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 09 2023
Journal Name
Applied Sciences
Effect of Crude Oil on the Geotechnical Properties of Various Soils and the Developed Remediation Methods
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Crude oil still affects many countries because it is one of the essential fuel sources. It makes life more manageable in modern communities and cannot be overstated because it is easy to use and find. However, the pollution caused by its use in industries such as mining, transportation, and the oil and gas business, especially soil pollution, cannot be ignored. Soil pollution is an issue in most communities because it influences people and ecology. Accidental infusions and spills of ore oils are prevalent occurrences leading to the entire or fractional exchange of the soil pore fluid by oil-contaminated soils that have affected the geotechnical engineering properties. The liquid limitations for polluted soil grades silty loam and sa

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 09 2023
Journal Name
Applied Sciences
Effect of Crude Oil on the Geotechnical Properties of Various Soils and the Developed Remediation Methods
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Crude oil still affects many countries because it is one of the essential fuel sources. It makes life more manageable in modern communities and cannot be overstated because it is easy to use and find. However, the pollution caused by its use in industries such as mining, transportation, and the oil and gas business, especially soil pollution, cannot be ignored. Soil pollution is an issue in most communities because it influences people and ecology. Accidental infusions and spills of ore oils are prevalent occurrences leading to the entire or fractional exchange of the soil pore fluid by oil-contaminated soils that have affected the geotechnical engineering properties. The liquid limitations for polluted soil grades silty loam and sa

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between method penalized quasi- likelihood and Marginal quasi-likelihood in estimating parameters of the multilevel binary model
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Multilevel models are among the most important models widely used in the application and analysis of data that are characterized by the fact that observations take a hierarchical form, In our research we examined the multilevel logistic regression model (intercept random and slope random model) , here the importance of the research highlights that the usual regression models calculate the total variance of the model and its inability to read variance and variations between levels ,however in the case of multi-level regression models, the calculation of  the total variance is inaccurate and therefore these models calculate the variations for each level of the model, Where the research aims to estimate the parameters of this m

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The difference The doctrines of the four jurists were built in Achieving the purposes of Tesper in Islam
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The difference The doctrines of the four jurists were built in Achieving the purposes of Tesper in Islam

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The role of thclimate in the development of the performance of the administrative bodies of sports clubs
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The role of the climate in the development of the performance of the administrative bodies of sports clubs

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Behavior of the Stock Markets in the Turkish Economy
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             A discussion about the repercussions of the exchange rate on the behavior of stock markets became one of the basic principles of financial economics. The Istanbul Stock Exchange , considered  one of the fastest financial markets growing in the region, driven by solid economic activity, for a diversified economy  which classified as one of the the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the aforementioned market witnessed sharp fluctuations in the past few months, coinciding with the continuous fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, posing a serious challenge to the economic and investment environment in a c

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 08 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of financial leverage on the market value of the shares of Iraqi commercial banks: An applied research in the Bank of Baghdad for the period (2010-2019)
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The aim of the research is to know the effect of financial leverage on the market value of the stock by applying it to a sample of private Iraqi commercial banks listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the period (2010-2019) and to show the extent of that effect, based on the bank’s annual reports for the mentioned period through the use of financial leverage ratios represented b (Equity multiplier, cash balance ratio), its discussion, analysis, description, inferential description, and testing of research hypotheses,

A set of conclusions has been reached, the most important of which are: The research sample banks depend in their financial structures on borrowed funds in a greater proportion than their r

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 30 2024
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The effect of Core exercises in improving the strength and flexibility of the spine for injured women with herniated discs in the vertebrae (L4, L5)
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يعد العلاج الحركي من الوسائل العلاجية التأهيلية من الوسائل المهمة الامنة  لأنها تؤمن على حياة الانسان بكافة شؤونه وتعد التمرينات التأهيلية اسلوبا فعالاً وطبيعياً لا تعرض المريض الى مضاعفات على وظائف الجسم الاخرى لأنها خالية من اي دواء كيمياوي ضار ، كما استخدمت تقنيات حديثة في العلاج الطبيعي بشكل واسع معد حسب اسس علمية منها تمرينات (Core)  التي تساعد في تخفيف الالام بالانزلاق الغضروفي للفقرة الرابعة والخا

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Strategic Flexibility in Achieving Organization Effectiveness: Analytical Research in the Directorates of the Ministry of Education
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This research aims to know the role of strategic flexibility in achieving organizational effectiveness by studying the dimensions of strategic flexibility (capacity flexibility, resource flexibility, information flexibility, and coordination flexibility) on the dimensions of organization effectiveness (environmental adaptation, productivity and achieving goals) through an analytical study conducted in six directorates in the office of the Iraqi Ministry of Education.

The research problem was represented in the form of questions, the most prominent of which was "What is the role of strategic flexibility in achieving organization effectiveness?" The descriptive analytical approach was relied on in applying

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