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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Strategic Intelligence in High performance organization A Survey Study for the Managers of Diseases and Kidney Transplant Center/ Medicine City-Baghdad
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The topic of strategic intelligence is considered as important topics that acquires the attention of organizations, Because of its role in supplying the decision-making centers by strategic ideas according to the opportunities and threats facing the organization, in an effort to improve the performance of their organizations to reach the high performance organization.

A lot of organizations lack to strategy guides the strategic intelligence towards achieving high performance organization.

This research aims to determine the level of strategic intelligence that characterized the leaders of diseases and kidney transplant center in Medicine city. What is the application level of the

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The status of prophecy in the Islamic faith in light of the glorious Kharida system
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Knowing the Messengers, peace and blessings be upon them, and explaining their obligatory, impossible, and permissible qualities is a legal necessity. It is a rooting of the faith, a means of understanding the Sharia, and a preventer from falling into the scourge of denial and bad manners against them. Therefore, sound belief in their presence is a major reason for the validity of the faith in the aspect of divinity and unseen hearing. Studying the status of prophethood is an urgent necessity in a time in which knowledge is scarce and attachment to the Messenger, may God Almighty’s prayers and peace be upon him, his family, and his companions, is weak, and suspicions and ideas hostile to the faith abound until we begin to hear - unfort

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Geomorphological Phenomena of the Tigris River between Dojama and Sindia Villages, Al Khalis District, Diyala Province
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Differences in transversal sections and activities of geomorphological operations led to forming geomorphological shapes as river turns and river isles in watercourse in the area of study. The study showed three river turns that are Sindia turn with length 4723m, turn wave 3599 average width 267.6, Zanbour turn length 11374m, turn wave 7110 average width 307.5m,and Dojama turn with length 5876m, turn wave 4982m average width 313.4m. This difference is caused by the activity of erosion and sedimentation that led to the appearance of the length rivers turn.
The study showed that the turn of Dojama is the only corresponding turn, whereas the phenomena of corresponding never appeared in other turns in the area of study. The study also sho

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Difficulties of Teaching Political Science Research Methods: A Comparative Study between Western and Arab Universities
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This research aims to identify the reality of teaching political science research methods curriculum, to observe practices, and differences in teaching and learning between the Arab and Western universities. Moreover, it focuses on the difficulties that face students' acquisition of the course skills. The research uses the course model of some Western and Arab universities as case study.

This research shows that the curriculum do not reach yet the final form as other political science curriculums, and its upcoming changes will reflect the needs of stakeholders. The best method to teach this curriculum is to use applied learning in groups, learning by doing, and finally problem-based learning approach. Using optimal assessment deep

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Investigation of the Relationship between Writing Achievement and Writing Strategy Use by Secondary School Students
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Basically, this study aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi secondary school students use writing strategies and how proficiency level and students gender could affect writing strategy use. The study also examines the relationship between writing achievement and writing strategy use among Iraqi secondary school students. For this purpose, 140 Iraqi secondary school students were selected randomly from six different schools. Petric and Czarl’s questionnaire (2003) was adopted in the study as an instrument to collect the needed data. A software of SPSS used to analyze the collected data. The findings revealed that secondary school students appeared as low users of writing strategies; low proficient students do not show a sta

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Design and Performance Investigation of a Solar- Powered Biological Greywater Treatment System in the Iraqi Climate
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            The increase in population resulted in an increase in the consumption of water. The present work investigates the performance of a recycling solar- powered greywater treatment system for the purposes of irrigation, used to reduce the amount of waste grey water and reduce electricity consumption and reduce the costs of constructing large scale water treatment plants. The system consumes about 3814W per hour and provides water treatment about 1.4 m3 per day. The proposed system is designed to    residential, office and governmental buildings application. Tests are conducted in an office building at the Ministry of Science and Technology site in Baghdad. Laboratorial water samples testing analyses are co

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 25 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The role of green taxes in the reduction of environmental pollution- exploratory search- in the GCT.: The role of green taxes in the reduction of environmental pollution- exploratory search- in the GCT.
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The research aims to identify the concept of green taxes and their role in reducing environmental pollution through the poll of Abnh of taxpayers and employees of the General Authority for taxes totaling 200 individual .autam adoption of the resolution as a tool head for the collection of data and information from the sample and analyzed their responses using a statistical program (spss - 10), and calculating the percentages and the arithmetic mean, standard deviation and research found to a number of conclusions, notably the lack of legislation with the challenges and the difficulty of the existence of a measure or a standard lack of planning for the application of environmental taxes that the state taxation application between the Gene

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Aware of the roots of the text in the arab heritage
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Text science presented a set of criteria to make the text essentially a project to create
texts and use. Me and means of cohesion script text scientists, two standard foundries and
knitting. Find this means their equivalent in the Arab rhetorical Heritage has been found, it
means foundries find Accompanying represented (link grammar in the classroom and link),
and referrals represented by (Baldmair, Ldefinition, and the name of the signal), and
deletion, and repetition, and presentation delays. As in the standard knitting it has confirmed
Albulagjun Arabs on the semantic consistency between the text components, as reflected in
the moral link in Chapter interfaces, as well as in moral coherence between parts of the te

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Sound of the letter (ق) in the Contemporary Arabic Dialects
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The Sound of the letter (ق) in the Contemporary Arabic Dialects

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of strategic alignment on the reputation of the organization
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The current study aims to determine the extent of SOMO's interest in strategic alignment operations and whether this interest is sufficient to be reflected in enhancing its organizational reputation. The field of research was in the oil marketing company SOMO. The managers in the top management within this company were targeted and the questionnaire was used as a data collection tool. The study population (109), (105) questionnaires were distributed, (94) questionnaires and (11) questionnaires were not retrieved, and the valid questionnaires had reached (91) and the analytical and descriptive approach was used for the study, the current research found to find A direct relationship and a positive effect of strategic

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