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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The effect of current density on the structures and photoluminescence of n-type porous silicon
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Porous silicon (PS) layers were formed on n-type silicon (Si) wafers using Photo- electrochemical Etching technique (PEC) was used to produce porous silicon for n-type with orientation of (111). The effects of current density were investigated at: (10, 20, 30, 40, and50) mA/cm2 with etching time: 10min. X-ray diffraction studies showed distinct variations between the fresh silicon surface and the synthesized porous silicon. The maximum crystal size of Porous Silicon is (33.9nm) and minimum is (2.6nm) The Atomic force microscopy (AFM) analysis and Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM) were used to study the morphology of porous silicon layer. AFM results showed that root mean square (RMS) of roughness and the grain size of p

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of wastewater disposal on the water quality and phytoplankton in Erbil wastewater channel.
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In this study, phytoplankton density, chlorophyll-a, and selected physico- chemical parameters were investigated in Erbil wastewater channel. The surveys were carried out monthly from May 2003 to April 2004. Samplings were established on three sites from headwaters to the mouth. The results showed that pH was in alkaline side of neutrality, with significant differences (P<0.05) between sites 1 and 3. TSS concentration decreased from site 1 toward site 2 (mean value, 80.15 to 25.79 mg.l-1). A clear gradual increase in mineral content (TDS) observed from site one of the channel towards the mouthpart. Soluble reactive phosphate has a concentration maximum mean value reached 48.4 µg.l-1 which is recorded in site 2. A high positive relat

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 12 2020
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability
The effect of doping process on the structural and optical properties of Ag2Se thin films.
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Effect of Walled Nano-Carbon on the Physical, Thermal and Mechanical Properties of Epoxy
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The physical, the thermal and the mechanical properties of Nano-composites, that consisted of Polyprime EP epoxy that reinforced by multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), have been studied. Various loading ratios, 0.1, 0.5, and 1 wt. %of MWCNT shave been infused into epoxy by a magnetic stirrer and then the hardener mixed with the mthat supplied with the epoxy. All sample shave been cutting using CNC machine. Tensile test, three-point bending, hardness tests, lee's disk, differential scanning calorimetry, water absorption and dielectric and electrical conductivity test were utilized on unfilled, MWCNT-filled epoxy to identify the loading effect on the properties of materials. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to determine the

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The relationship between critical thinking, epistemological beliefs, and learning strategies with the students’ academic performance
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The present study was conducted to investigate the relationship between critical thinking, epistemological beliefs, and learning strategies with the academic performance of high school first-grade male and female students in Yazd. For this purpose, from among all first-grade students, as many as 250 students (130 females and 120 males) were selected by using multistage cluster sampling. The data needed were then collected through using California Critical Thinking Skills Test, Schommer's Epistemological Beliefs Questionnaire, Biggs’ Revised Two Factor Study Process Questionnaire. The findings indicated that there is a positive significant relationship between critical thinking and academic performance and achievement. Moreover, four fa

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Procedia
Manufacturing and improving the characteristics of the isolation of concrete composites by additive Styrofoam particulate
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 10 2013
Journal Name
International Journal Of Application Or Innovation In Engineering & Management (ijaiem)
The Effect of Annealing Temperature on the Optical Properties of CdS and CdS:Al Thin Films
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Cadmium sulfide and Aluminum doped CdS thin films were prepared by thermal evaporation technique in vacuum on a heated glass substrates at 373K. A comparison between the optical properties of the pure and doped films was made through measuring and analyzing the transmittance curves, and the effect of the annealing temperature on these properties were estimated. All the films were found to exhibit high transmittance in the visible/ near infrared region from 500nm to 1100nm.The optical band gap energy was found to be in the range 2.68-2.60 eV and 2.65-2.44 eV for CdS and CdS:Al respectively , with changing the annealing temperature from room temperature to 423K.Optical constants such as refractive index, extinction coefficient, and complex di

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 09 2019
Journal Name
Преподаватель ХХi век | مجلة الاستاذ في القرن الواحد و العشرين
Arabic borrowings in the Russian language and features of their actualization in the modern period
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health
The role of electrolytes and inflammatory biomarkers in the development of febrile seizure in children
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Fluorine and Hydrogen Concentrations on the Chain Reaction of HF Chemical Laser
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A numerical investigation has been performed to examine the effect of fluorine concentration on the chain reaction mechanisms and parameters of hydrogen fluoride (HF) chemical laser. The practical difficulties associated with this type of lasers impose that an alternative route might be quite useful. Thus, particular attention was paid to develop a computer program to investigate various processes. The results of this computer simulation program proved their credibility when compared with the little published data. This computer program is called Reaction Rate Simulation Model (RRSM). An entirely new approach to emulate the reaction mechanisms has been followed. The effectiveness of reaction rates in the processes of HF lase

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