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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed May 02 2018
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Natural Sciences
Histological and Histochemical Characters of the Pancreas in the Adult Indigenous Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa)
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LO Hamza, Indian Journal of Natural Sciences, 2018 - Cited by 3

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of water resources internationally and their implications for the water issue globally
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The rivers are the main source of fresh water for many countries and the great development which is considered as one of the sustainable development elements in its various agricultural, industrial, domestic and environmental fields .The countries of the world seek food security and water security in order to ensure the basic needs of citizens .Because their distribution is uneven in many regions of the world with different human needs, which leads to conflicts over water sources, especially those located in one international river basin .This has led to the emergence of internationallegal rules governing the management of The problem revolves around the dialectic between limited water resources and increased need for water use b

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Domestic Violence and Extremism among the Young: A Field Study in the Madain Region
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Young people represent the power and cornerstone of societies and their superiority is linked to their well-being. Their empowerment is as essential as the heart to the body, if it is corrupt, then the whole body is corrupt, and vice versa. The exposure to extremism and pressure from their families leads to violent acts and crimes for obtaining money through unknown organized bodies. This will drive them to fail in their life in an attempt to fulfill their most basic needs, which they have been deprived of by their families, the government, and other institutions. Therefore, governments should provide job opportunities for young people and provide entertainment centers, sports clubs, and family education centers that raise awareness of s

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify t

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Phenomenon of Division and Modification of The Individual Houses in Baghdad after 2003
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The Research deals with the negative phenomena which appeared in the urban scenes of the  Iraqi cities after 2003, particularly trespassing the architectural design of the urban Individual houses.  Many academic researchers , critics, and cultural circles, drawn attention to the impact of  political and cultural variable change on such phenomena  without detailed  analysis . The research problem  is set according to central questions : If the phenomena is the trespass , what
are the sides which are being trespassed  in the division of the individual house? , If the diagnosis of the phenomena denotes perceived repetition of the cases , So what's size of this transposes on the architectural design of t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Different Estimators for the shape Parameter and the Reliability function of Kumaraswamy Distribution
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In this paper, we used maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian method to estimate the shape parameter (θ), and reliability function (R(t)) of the Kumaraswamy distribution with two parameters l , θ (under assuming the exponential distribution, Chi-squared distribution and Erlang-2 type distribution as prior distributions), in addition to that we used method of moments for estimating the parameters of the prior distributions. Bayes

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
PDF The effect of nanoelectrodes number and length on enhancing the THz photomixer performance
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Abstract: Despite the distinct features of the continuous wave (CW) Terahertz (THz) emitter using photomixing technique, it suffers from the relatively low radiation output power. Therefore, one of effective ways to improve the photomixer emitter performance was using nanodimensions electrodes inside the optical active region of the device. Due to the nanodimension sizes and good electrical conductivity of silver nanowires (Ag-NWs), they have been exploited as THz emitter electrodes. The excited surface plasmon polariton waves (SPPs) on the surface of nanowire enhances the incident excitation signal. Therefore, the photomixer based Ag-NW compared to conventional one significantly exhibits higher THz output signal. In thi

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-adab Journal
Metaphors and comparisons as a means of rethinking the phenomena of the surrounding world
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The article characterizes metaphors and comparisons as a means of rethinking the phenomena of the surrounding world; two directions are named within which metaphors and comparisons are studied: 1) the linguo-classification direction combines several classifications of metaphors and comparisons, which are basically focused on comparing two denotations through the meanings of word forms that are part of the trope; 2) the theoretical and conceptual direction is associated with the concept of conceptual displacement and is the basis of the theoretical and methodological study of metaphor and comparison, i.e. the modern theory of metaphor is being formed; The main attention is focused on the comparative concept of Aristotle, which postul

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Taking Over The Judiciary By Women And The Position Of Law From That: مثالا
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لمقدمة

     الحمد لله رب العالمين والصلاة والسلام على سيد الأنبياء والمرسلين نبينا محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم وعلى  واصحابه أجمعين  ومن تبعهم وأهتدى بهداهم الى يوم الدين اما بعد :

        فوظيفة القضاء وظيفة سامية يراد منها اقامة العدل ولا يستقيم حالهم الا به دفعاّ للظلم ، ولقد اولى النبي صلى الله عليه وآله وسلم ومن بعده الخلفاء الراشدون

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