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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Ieee Access
A Direct Solution Scheme for Wide-Angle Electromagnetic Scattering Problems Using Compressive Sensing-Based Method of Moments
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 28 2017
Journal Name
Medycyna Pracy
MTS-6 detectors calibration by using <sup>239</sup>Pu-Be neutron source
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2009
Journal Name
Ibn Al- Haitham J. Fo R Pure & Appl. Sci
Multiple Mixing Ratios of Gamma Rays Erγ)nEr(n, From 168 168 Reaction  Using a2 – Ratio Method
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The -mixing of  - transition in Er 168 populated in Er)n,n(Er 168168  reaction is calculated in the present work by using a2- ratio method. This method has used in previou studies [4, 5, 6, 7] in case that the second transition is pure or for that transition which can be considered as pure only, but in one work we applied this method for two cases, in the first one for pure transition and in the 2nd one for non pure transitions. We take into accunt the experimental a2- coefficient for p revious works and -values for one transition only [1]. The results obtained are, in general, in agood agreement within associated errors, with those reported previously [1], the discrepancies that occur are due to inaccuracies existing

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Process Parameters That Affecting on Surface Roughness in Multi-Point Forming Process Using ANOVA Algorithm
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2010
Journal Name
Ibn Al- Haitham J. Fo R Pure & Appl. Sci
Multipole Mixing Ratios of Gamma Rays From Fe(n,ny Reaction Using Constant Statistical Tensor Method (CST).
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The - M ultiple mixing ratios of -transitions from levels of 56Fe populated in 56 56 Fe n n Fe ( , )  reactions are calculated by using const. S.T.M. This method has been used in other works [3,7] but with pure transition or with transitions that can be considered as pure transitions، in our work we used This method for mixed  - transitions in addition to pure  - transitions. The experimental angular distribution coefficients a2 was used from previous works [1] in order to calculet - values. It is clear from the results that the - values are in good agreement or consistent, within associated errors, with those reported previously [1]. The discrepancies that occur are due to inaccuracies existing in the expe

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Ecology
Classification of al-hammar marshes satellite images in Iraq using artificial neural network based on coding representation
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 13 2020
Journal Name
Day 3 Wed, January 15, 2020
Numerical Simulation of Gas Lift Optimization Using Genetic Algorithm for a Middle East Oil Field: Feasibility Study
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<p>Gas-lift technique plays an important role in sustaining oil production, especially from a mature field when the reservoirs’ natural energy becomes insufficient. However, optimally allocation of the gas injection rate in a large field through its gas-lift network system towards maximization of oil production rate is a challenging task. The conventional gas-lift optimization problems may become inefficient and incapable of modelling the gas-lift optimization in a large network system with problems associated with multi-objective, multi-constrained, and limited gas injection rate. The key objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of utilizing the Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique to optimize t</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Ieee Access
Implementation of Univariate Paradigm for Streamflow Simulation Using Hybrid Data-Driven Model: Case Study in Tropical Region
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Microwave Assisted Demulsification of Iraqi Crude Oil Emulsions Using Tri-octyl Methyl Ammonium Chloride (TOMAC) Ionic Liquid
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In the present work, the efficiency of Tri-octyl Methyl Ammonium Chloride (TOMAC) ionic liquid was investigated as new and green demulsifier for three types of Iraqi crude oil emulsions (Nafut Khana (NK), Kirkuk and Basrah). The separation efficiency was studied at room temperature and by using microwave heating technique. Several batch experiments were done to specify the suitable conditions for the emulsification and demulsification which were specified as 45 minutes and 3000 rpm for crude oil emulsification while the ionic liquid doses were (500,300,150,50) ppm and the conditions of microwave heating were 1000 watt and 50 second as irradiation time. The results were very encouraging especially for NK and Kirkuk crude oil emulsions whe

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2017
Journal Name
Nano Hybrids And Composites
White Light Generation from Electroluminescence Devices Using TPD:PMMA/QDs/Alq&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;
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Quantum dots of CdSe, CdS and ZnS QDs were prepared by chemical reaction and used to fabricate organic quantum dot hybrid junction device. QD-LEDs were fabricated using layers of ITO/TPD: PMMA/CdSe/Alq3, ITO/TPD: PMMA/CdS/Alq3 and ITO/TPD: PMMA/ZnS/Alq3 devices which prepared by phase segregation method. The hybrid white light emitting devices consists, of three-layers deposited successively on the ITO glass substrate; the first layer was of N, N’-bis (3-methylphenyl)-N, N’-bis (phenyl) benzidine (TPD) polymer mixed with polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) polymers. The second layer was QDs while the third layer was tris (8-hydroxyquinoline) aluminium (Alq3

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