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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of leadership styles in the crisis management center the Strategic planning - Field research in the Headquarters Ministry of electricity
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Abstract

The current research aims to testing the impact of leadership styles (autocratic, democratic) in crises management (Making decision response, communications and information flows, Mobilization of resources) through strategic planning (Mission, objectives, and environmental analysis, and strategic choice) among managers of the Iraqi Ministry of electricity. Questionnaire has been adopted as a tool in data and information relating to research, as it had prepared on the basis of number of scales and finished using the included Likert quintet, which  has been subjected to standards of validity and reliability and distributed to a sample consisting of (96) managers at the three departments of Min

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of the Aquatic Plant Hydrella vorticellata as a Fertilizer on Seed Germination and some Chemical and Cytogenetics Parameters in the cell of Hordeum vulgare and Vicia faba
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The present study is concerned with studying the effect of aquatic plant Hydrella vorticellata with the concentration of 10 and 20 gm/2 K gm soil on percentage and growth rate of germinating seeds of Hordeum vulgare and Vicia faba. More overs, the quantitative amount of NPK in both tested plants and Hydrella vorticellata, are estimated as an organic fertilizer. It has also been find the total number of root cells, the number of dividing cells, and stages of mitosis. The study reveales, that there are no significant differences between the concentration of hydrella used in germination percentage, growth rate, wet and dry weight. While there are differences in the plants containing NPK. The number of cells dividing stages and number of divid

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of changing the evacuated tube tilt angle and the fluid of the solar collector on the performance of a hybrid solar air conditioning system
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In the hybrid coolingsolar systems , a solar collectoris used to convertsolar energy intoheat sourcein order to super heat therefrigerant leave thecompressor,andthisprocess helpsin the transformation ofrefrigerant state from gaseous statetothe liquid statein upper two-thirdsof thecondenserinstead of the lower two-thirdssuchas in thetraditional air-conditioning systems and this willreduce theenergyneeded torun the process ofcooling.In this research two hybrid air-conditioning system with an evacuated tube solar collector were used, therefrigerant was R22 and the capacity was 2 tons each.The tilt angle of the evacuated tube solar collector was changed and the solar collector fluid was replaced into oil instead of water.A comparison wasi

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Semilogy of the Narrative Structure in "Nisa'a Al Altabat" Novel: The Semilogy of the Narrative Structure in "Nisa'a Al Altabat" Novel
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Abstruct
This recearch is about studying the novel (doorstep’s women) by the Iraqi
narrator Hadia Hussian, and I choose Semiolog as a Curriculum for this
critical approach, because I think that this Semiotic curriculum has the ability
to read the Subjects and the narrative constructions. Which form the structure
of the novel starting from the little to the characters.
The focus is on many narrative constructions in the novel we have
studied the semiology of the tittle, the semiology of the cover, of the color, the
names of the characters and the semiology of the female characters.
First the focus of the novel is on the women’s characters because most
of it’s characters are women. Secondly because these

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Iraq The Impact of Lee’s Cognitive Strategy on the Achievement of the 5th Grade Literary brunch Female Students in the Module of History
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  The research aims to find out the impact of Lee’s cognitive strategy on the achievement of fifth-grade literary students in the module of history. The research community consists of the secondary female day schools of Al-Karkh Al-Oula Directorate General of Education. The size of the research sample comprises (45) female students of the fifth grade of the literary brunch, (21) students for the experimental group and (24) students for the control group. The researchers have chosen an experimental design with partial control to suit the current research and its goal. They used a unified tool to measure the achievement of female students, which consisted of (50) items characterized by sincerity and they extracted the stability of t

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the moral aspect of the administrative accountant In the quality of accounting information
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The importance of the accounting profession in creating data and accounting information for economic resources and their sources and changes therein , through the effectiveness of this information and the degree of suitability and providing accurate and timely manner and in a form that makes it able to rationalize decisions and performance reporting , and there are several elements and behaviors control how the effectiveness of these reports and these behaviors work ethic that govern the work of management accountant when preparing performance reports , which are the ethics of the work of professional control principles and rules of accounting , legal, such as objectivity and reliability , neutrality and timeliness that must be a

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of The Round Robin Strategy in Logical Thinking the Fourth in Chemistry
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The study aims to identify the impact of the round-robin strategy on the logical thinking of fourth-year middle school students in chemistry. Two groups were employed:  an experimental group consisted of (30) students who were taught according to the round-robin strategy, and the control group consisted of (30) students who were taught according to the traditional method. The researcher adopted the experimental design with partial control by preparing the visual thinking test tool, which consists of (20) multiple-choice items, it was applied as a post-test on the research sample. The result showed that there was a statistically significant difference in favor of the experimental group, which was taught according to the Round Robin s

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Role of the Iraqi parliament in the adoption of the federal budget after 2005
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Receipt date: 2/2/2021 accepted date: 4/6/2021 Publication date: 12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The approval of the federal general budget in Iraq is one of the most important competencies of the legislative authority , Being one of the important financial and monetary policy instruments on which the state depends for its economic growth , Hence, the obstruction of the approval of the federal b

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of accountability measures in enhancing the results of the federal budget in government spending units
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The role and procedures for accountability in the spending units significant impact in enhancing the results of the budget it is found by studying and comparing the results of the implementation of the budget for the research sample for a period of two years to repeat the same deviations and irregularities of Guanyin, regulations and instructions that have occurred in implementation results and two consecutive Kaltjaoz customizations and low rates of implementation and the lack of exchange of allocations Finance despite the presence budget note that such remarks are always indicate in regulatory reports, but these observations repeated Bostmr in the results of the implementation of the budget. Which clearly reflects the absence of the ro

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2023
Journal Name
Kufa Journal Of Arts
The Figurative Metaphor in the Discourse of Enlightenment of Hashem Salih in the Light of Cognitive Linguistics
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