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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Active Reading Strategy on the Achievement of the Second Year Middle School Students in Biology
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Abstract

The aim of the current research is to identify the effect of the effective reading strategy on the achievement of second-middle students in biology, as well as the imaginative thinking skills of students. The researcher adopted the experimental design with partial control to achieve the goal of the research. The current research community identified the second-middle students in the government schools of the Baghdad Education Directorate / Rusafa I for the academic year (2021-2022 AD). The Safina Intermediate School for Girls was chosen to be the research sample in the form of intentionally, two classes were randomly selected from a total of four classes, one of them is experimental and the other is con

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Organizational Change in the Development of the Insurance Service: (applied study in The National Insurance Company)
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تشهد بیئة الأعمال المعاصرة جملة من التغیرات والتطورات التكنولوجیة وتزایداً في حدةالمنافسة، وأتساع الفجوة بین العاملین والإدارة ، وقدرة الإدارة على التمییز بین الموظفین، والمشاركة فيإتخاذ القرارات، الامر الذي یلقي على عاتق شركة التأمین إجراء التغییر التنظیمي لتحقیق تطور فيالخدمات التأمینیة التي تقدمها للجمهور من تنوع التغطیات التأمینیة )الوثائق( والسرعة في تسویةالتعویضات وغیرها من الانشطة التي تمارسه

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Idea Filtering Strategy on the Achievement of the Second Year Middle School Female Students in Science
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The current research aims to identify the effect of the idea filtering strategy on the achievement of second-intermediate school female students in science. The two researchers adopted the experimental method and the experimental design with partial control in the two groups (experimental group and control group). The two researchers applied the research experience to a sample of students of the second intermediate grade in the school Martyrs of (Jiser  Al Aimma for Girls) affiliated with the Baghdad Education Directorate / Rusafa /1 for the academic year (2021/2022), which was chosen intentionally. The number of female students in the research sample was (70) students, with (35) students for the ex

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2008
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Effects of Vortex Generator Types on Heat Transfer and Flow Structure in a Rectangular Duct Flows
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    In this numerical study a detailed evaluation of the heat transfer characteristics and flow structure in a laminar and turbulent flow through a rectangular channel containing built-in of different type vortex generator has been a accomplished in a range of Reynolds number between 500 and 100,000.A modified version of ESCEAT code has been used to solve Navier-Stokes and energy equations. The purpose of this paper is to present numerical comparisons in terms of temperature, Nusselt number and flow patterns on several configurations of longitudinal vortex generator including new five cases. The structures of heat and flow were studied, using iso-contours of velocity components, vortices, temperature and Nusselt n

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Use of Elements of Film Expression and their Role in Narrative Transitions: محمد أكرم عبد الجليل
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Many studies and researches related to the audio and visual medium have shed light on the creative process that has taken place through them as well as the aesthetic and artistic creation and have dealt with many fields of knowledge and creativity in this field of art, which managed to study and follow its intellectual and technical tools for creating achievements through this medium, in its forefront come the elements of the cinematic language, which is characterized by possessing multiple features of aesthetic and semantic employment to reach the recipient as it is a tool of the artistic expression that gives the material it deals with aesthetic and intellectual dimensions from various aspects. "The artistic expression cannot be achiev

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Publication Date
Wed May 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
morphological stages of the residential development and development
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The neighbourhood unit is a small local community in a city dwelled by certain number of dwellers who are characterized by common features, mostly economic. They daily deal with each other & unified with the feeling of neighbourhood. The daily primary services are available in this small community (like education, shopping & entertainment). This community is separated from other communities by physical boundaries like streets, gardens… etc. The neighbourhood is not an exotic notion on human community but it is as ancient as history itself since it was there in ancient communities that dwelled on earth. Complications of urban life needs, caused by cities’ expansion, and the weakness of social relationships, imposed phy

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
International and Regional Competition for the African Coast
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This study aimed at analyzing and studying the strategic and geopolitical importance of the Sahel region, which increased the regional competition for the resources of the region, especially the energy resources that have been and continue to be one of the axes of conflict and competition between these forces.
The researcher tried to review the competition between the international force, France, the United States of America, China, Algeria and Libya, and the African coast. We note that there is a positive correlation between the severity of the conflict and the intensity of the competition of the major powers to control the countries of the region and the extent of political and economic stability These countries are directly affecte

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The psychological and health implication on drugs’ users
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The research aims to identify the meaning of drug addiction, which being one of the behavioral-deviation signs. It largely seems similar to alcohol-addiction. World health organization has defined drug addiction as a sporadic or chronic-state of intoxication emerges of recurrent-consumption of drugs that impact harmfully on individual and society. The second aim is to study the psychological and health implications on drugs’ users and thirdly to design a psychological-program for those who take drugs.     

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 20 2021
Journal Name
Research J. Pharm. And Tech.
The special techniques for Semen analysis and preparation
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Infertility can be detected when the couples have not completed pregnancy after a year or more of normal coitus. So, in order to treat infertility, there are many supported reproductive techniques are in practice. The success rate of these techniques depends upon the way by which preparation of the paternal semen sample. Over the past 30 years, the manual has been standard as providing global standards and has been used extensively by research and clinical laboratories throughout the world. The spermatozoa of all placental (eutherian) mammals, including humans, are in a protective, no labile formal at ejaculation and are incapable of fertilization even if they are placed in direct contact with an oocyte. Accordingly, they must undergo a sub

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Determination the Wheat Weight and Volume: Mathematical Approach
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Abstract<p>Grain size and shape are important yield indicators. A hint for reexamining the visual markers of grain weight can be found in the wheat grain width. A digital vernier caliper is used to measure length, width, and thickness. The data consisted of 1296 wheat grains, with measurements for each grain. In this data set, the average weight (We) of the twenty-four grains was measured and recorded. To determine measure of the length (L), width (W), thickness (T), weight (We), and volume(V). These features were manipulated to develop two mathematical models that were passed on to the multiple regression models. The results of the weight model demonstrated that the length and width of the grai</p> ... Show More
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