Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

: Summary The establishment of the modern Iraqi state necessitated the establishment of diplomatic relations with neighboring countries. However, during the British Mandate period, these relations remained under the management of the British Embassy, which assumed responsibility for Iraq's foreign affairs. As the political situation evolved, the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs began making strenuous efforts to build a competent and effective diplomatic apparatus. Iraqi diplomatic representatives played an active role in strengthening and developing Iraq's foreign relations by implementing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' directives, which focused on monitoring political, economic, and social developments in neighboring countries. This app

ملخص البحث تناول البحث دراسة أحد أعمدة فقهاء العالم الإسلامي من حيث العموم والمذهب الحنفي بشكل خاص الإمام محمد بن الحسن الشيباني (رحمه الله تعالى) صاحب أبي حنيفة وفقيه العراق وبعض أحكامه الفقهية المتعلقة بالزروع، ولا يخفى اهتمامه الكبير وباعه الطويل في هذا الجانب، وحرص في الغالب على ذكر وجوه الترجيح، وأسباب الاختيار، واعتمد في ذلك على قواعد وضوابط تؤيد ما يرجحه أو يختاره، مع صياغة ذلك كله بأسلوب علمي رصين، ق

تضمن البحث تحقيق مخطوط"، سرور الفؤاد بالصافنات الجياد في معرفة الخيل
وأسمائياالشيخ محمد العمري" وكما ظاىر من عنوان المخطوط إنوُ يتناول الخيل، والخيل
موضوع ميم في حياة العربي قبل الاسلام باعتباره يمثل جزءاً من تفاصيل حياتو الملازمة لوُ
واعتماده عمييا ىذا أولاً وثانياً ماتحمموُ الخيول من معاني الفروسية والعنفوان وماتثيره في
الأنسان من حب الأقتناع والمتعة المتحققة من النظر إلييا وحبو لمسبق،

In order to understand the effect of the number of piles (N), the history response of dynamic pile load in piled raft system and deflection time history of piled raft under repeated impact load applied on the center of piled raft resting on loose sand, laboratory model tests were conducted on small-scale models. The results of experimental work are found to be dynamic load increase with increase height of drop, the measured repeated dynamic load time history on the center of piled raft was close approximately to three a half sine wave shape with small duration in about (0.015 Sec). The maximum peak of impact loads occurs in pile and deflection time history occur after at the time of the peak repeated impact loads, dynamic pile load

We report on using a CO₂ (10.6 µm) laser to debond the lithium disilicate veneers. Sixty-four sound human premolar teeth and 64 veneer specimens were used in the study. The zigzag movement via CO₂ laser handpiece along with an air-cooled jet to prevent temperature elevation above the necrosis temperature limit (5.5 C°) was applied. The optimal deboning irradiation time was super-fast, at about 5 seconds at 3 Watt CO₂ laser power. It is 20 times less than any previously published work for veneers debonding. The enamel beneath the debonded veneers has been assessed by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and shear stress technique as criteria for the easiness of debonding. The

The effective insulation design of the stress grading (SG) system in form-wound stator coils is essential for preventing partial discharges and excessive heat generation under pulse-width modulation excitation. This paper proposes a method to find the optimal insulation design of the SG system aimed at reducing the dielectric and thermal stresses in the machine coil. The non-uniform transmission line model is used to predict the voltage propagation along the overhang, SG, and slot regions considering the variation in the physical properties of the insulation layers. The machine coil parameters for different insulation materials are calculated by using the finite element method. Two optimization algorithms, fmincon and particle swarm optimiz

The cost of pile foundations is part of the super structure cost, and it became necessary to reduce this cost by studying the pile types then decision-making in the selection of the optimal pile type in terms of cost and time of production and quality .So The main objective of this study is to solve the time–cost–quality trade-off (TCQT) problem by finding an optimal pile type with the target of "minimizing" cost and time while "maximizing" quality. There are many types In the world of piles but  in this paper, the researcher proposed five pile types, one of them is not a traditional, and   developed a model for the problem and then employed particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, as one of evolutionary algorithms with t