Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This work discusses the beginning of fractional calculus and how the Sumudu and Elzaki transforms are applied to fractional derivatives. This approach combines a double Sumudu-Elzaki transform strategy to discover analytic solutions to space-time fractional partial differential equations in Mittag-Leffler functions subject to initial and boundary conditions. Where this method gets closer and closer to the correct answer, and the technique's efficacy is demonstrated using numerical examples performed with Matlab R2015a.
The researchers believe the problem of searching the scarcity or limited tests of time kinetic response led to scarcity or limited availability of experimental research in exercises codified within the training curriculum for the junior class, and therefore has been weakening this physical variable as an important episode in the development of the players physical capacities as well as the lack of measure for this variable within the defensive skills in general and the skill of the player movement defender in particular, and it represents the goal of research in the treatment of the above through the construction and rationing test to measure the kinetic response to the movement of the player defender basketball junior time. Chosen as the r
... Show MoreThere is no doubt that Jane Austen is one of the most studied authors of the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Her female characters have been extensively studied and they seem to have aroused much interest as manifestations of the conduct of their time. Her heroines have realized that there were many mistakes in the rules of conduct that controlled and restricted their behaviors. Thus, they have found no fault in correcting these mistakes, by behaving naturally without acting. Elizabeth Bennet the heroine of Pride and Prejudice and Marianne Dashwood of Sense and Sensibility are the chosen examples of that kind of women.
Internet of Things (IoT) technology could be an effective solution to accomplish real-time retrieval of historical electronic health records (EHRs) to present better service of healthcare. In a pilgrimage environment such as the Hajj, IoT can be applied by identifying the non-local patients as electronic tags, and the tag data can be read by wireless sensors. The data that is collected using Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) can be acquired from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) in order to accomplish many decisions, such as sending an ambulance to a patient’s location, sending an emergency alert to his immediate family circle, and retrieving his EHR from a database. The main contribution of this research is to propose a conceptual IoT
... Show MoreIn this research, the problem of ambiguity of the data for the project of establishing the typical reform complex in Basrah Governorate was eliminated. The blurry of the data represented by the time and cost of the activities was eliminated by using the Ranking function and converting them into normal numbers. Scheduling and managing the Project in the Critical Pathway (CPM) method to find the project completion time in normal conditions in the presence of non-traditional relationships between the activities and the existence of the lead and lag periods. The MS Project was used to find the critical path. The results showed that the project completion time (1309.5) dinars and the total cost has reached (33113017769) dinars and the
... Show MoreThis paper proposes a novel finite-time generalized proportional integral observer (FTGPIO) based a sliding mode control (SMC) scheme for the tracking control problem of high order uncertain systems subject to fast time-varying disturbances. For this purpose, the construction of the controller consists of two consecutive steps. First, the novel FTGPIO is designed to observe unmeasurable plant dynamics states and disturbance with its higher time derivatives in finite time rather than infinite time as in the standard GPIO. In the FTGPO estimator, the finite time convergence rate of estimations is well achieved, whereas the convergence rate of estimations by classical GPIO is asymptotic and slow. Secondly, on the basis of the finite and fast e
... Show MoreConventional concretes are nearly unbendable, and just 0.1 percent of strain potential makes them incredibly brittle and stiff. This absence of bendability is a significant cause of strain failure and has been a guiding force in the production of an elegant substance, bendable concrete, also known as engineered cement composites, abbreviated as ECC. This type of concrete is capable of displaying dramatically increased flexibility. ECC is reinforced with micromechanical polymer fibers. ECC usually uses a 2 percent volume of small, disconnected fibers. Thus, bendable concrete deforms but without breaking any further than conventional concrete. This research aims to involve this type of concrete, bendable concrete, that will give solut
... Show MoreVariations in perspective, illumination, motion blur, and weatherworn degeneration of signs may all be essential factors in road-sign identification. The current research purpose is to evaluate the effectiveness of the image processing technique in detecting road signs as well as to find the appropriate threshold value range for doing so. The efficiency of the cascade object detector in detecting road signs was tested under variations of speed and threshold values. The suggested system involved using video data to calculate the number of frames per second and creating an output file that contains the specified targets with their labels to use later in the final process (i.e., training stage). In the current research, two videos
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