Preferred Language
Articles
/
ijs-802
Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
...Show More Authors

Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

Scopus Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Apr 26 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Flat Model for Representing Contiguous UTM Coordinates over Iraq Territory
...Show More Authors

The process of converting coordinates is, still, considered an important and difficult issue due to the way of conversion from geographic ellipsoidal system to the projected flat system. The most common method uses contiguous UTM system as one of the most accurate systems in the conversion process, but the users of the
system face problems related to contiguity, especially at the large areas that lie within more than one zone. The aim of the present research is to solve the problem related to the multiple zones coverage found in the Iraqi territory using a mathematical model based on the use of Taylor series. The most accurate conversion equation used in this paper was based on the 4th order polynomial of two variables. The calculatio

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (7)
Crossref (3)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Mar 10 2023
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Physics
Describing the differential inelastic inverse mean free path of PMMA polymer with the Mermin–Belkacem-Sigmund model
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a mathematical model of the transportation problem under the dynamics of demand restrictions with practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract\

In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem  for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non-arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The The Dynamics of a Prey-Predator Model with Infectious Disease in Prey: Role of Media Coverage
...Show More Authors

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with media coverage effect is proposed and studied. A prey-predator model with modified Leslie-Gower and functional response is studied. An  -type of disease in prey is considered.  The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The local and global stability of this system are carried out. The conditions for the persistence of all species are established. The local bifurcation in the model is studied. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the analytical results.

View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (6)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of the Nuclear Structure of some Neutron Rich Si Isotopes Using Shell Model with Skyrme Interaction
...Show More Authors

  Abstract

      The nuclear structure of 28-40Si isotopes toward neutron dripline has been investigated in framework of shell model with Skyrme-Hrtree-Fock method using certain Skyrme parameterizations. Moreover, investigations of static properties such as nuclear densities for proton, neutron, mass, and, charge densities with their corresponding rms radii, neutron skin thicknesses, binding energies, separation energies, shell gap, and pairing gap have been performed using the most recent Skyrme parameterization. The calculated results have been compared with available experimental data to identify which of these parameterizations introduced equivalent results with the ex

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Sep 13 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of the Electric Quadrupole Moments for some Scandium Isotopes Using Shell Model Calculations with Different Interactions
...Show More Authors

The electric quadrupole moments for some scandium isotopes (41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47Sc) have been calculated using the shell model in the proton-neutron formalism. Excitations out of major shell model space were taken into account through a microscopic theory which is called core polarization effectives. The set of effective charges adopted in the theoretical calculations emerging about the core polarization effect. NushellX@MSU code was used to calculate one body density matrix (OBDM). The simple harmonic oscillator potential has been used to generate the single particle matrix elements. Our theoretical calculations for the quadrupole moments used the two types of effective interactions to obtain the best interaction compared with the exp

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (6)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Mon May 15 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Developing a Real Time Method for the Arabic Heterogonous DBMS Transformation
...Show More Authors

   A common problem facing many Application models is to extract and combine information from multiple, heterogeneous sources and to derive information of a new quality or abstraction level. New approaches for managing consistency, uncertainty or quality of Arabic data and enabling e-client analysis of distributed, heterogeneous sources are still required. This paper presents a new method by combining two algorithms (the partitioning and Grouping) that will be used to transform information in a real time heterogeneous Arabic database environment

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Numerical Approximations of a One-Dimensional Time-Fractional Semilinear Parabolic Equation
...Show More Authors

     The time fractional order differential equations are fundamental tools that are used for modeling neuronal dynamics. These equations are obtained by substituting the time derivative of order  where , in the standard equation with the Caputo fractional formula. In this paper, two implicit difference schemes: the linearly Euler implicit and the Crank-Nicolson (CN) finite difference schemes, are employed in solving a one-dimensional time-fractional semilinear equation with Dirichlet boundary conditions. Moreover, the consistency, stability and convergence of the proposed schemes are investigated. We prove that the IEM is unconditionally stable, while CNM is conditionally stable. Furthermore, a comparative study between these two s

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Apr 14 2022
Journal Name
Plos One
The passage of time in Iraq during the covid-19 pandemic
...Show More Authors

The covid-19 global pandemic has influenced the day-to-day lives of people across the world. One consequence of this has been significant distortion to the subjective speed at which people feel like time is passing. To date, temporal distortions during covid-19 have mainly been studied in Europe. The current study therefore sought to explore experiences of the passage of time in Iraq. An online questionnaire was used to explore the passage of time during the day, week and the 11 months since the first period of covid-19 restrictions were imposed in Iraq. The questionnaire also measured affective and demographic factors, and task-load. The results showed that distortions to the passage of time were widespread in Iraq. Participants co

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (9)
Crossref (9)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
A Multilevel Approach for Stability Conditions in Fractional Time Diffusion Problems
...Show More Authors
Abstract<p>The Caputo definition of fractional derivatives introduces solution to the difficulties appears in the numerical treatment of differential equations due its consistency in differentiating constant functions. In the same time the memory and hereditary behaviors of the time fractional order derivatives (TFODE) still common in all definitions of fractional derivatives. The use of properties of companion matrices appears in reformulating multilevel schemes as generalized two level schemes is employed with the Gerschgorin disc theorems to prove stability condition. Caputo fractional derivatives with finite difference representations is considered. Moreover the effect of using the inverse operator which tr</p> ... Show More
View Publication
Scopus Crossref