Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This contribution investigates structural, electronic, and optical properties of cubic barium titanate (BaTiO3) perovskites using first-principles calculations of density functional theory (DFT). Generalized gradient approximations (GGA) alongside with PW91 functional have been implemented for the exchange–correlation potential. The obtained results display that BaTiO3 exhibits a band gap of 3.21 eV which agrees well with the previously experimental and theoretical literature. Interestingly, our results explore that when replacing Pd atom with Ba and Ti atoms at 0.125 content a clear decrease in the electronic band gap of 1.052 and 1.090 eV located within the visible range of electromagnetic wavelengths (EMW). Optical parameters such as a
... Show MoreIn this study, a qualitative seismic velocity interpretation is made up through using 2D-seismic reflection data on Luhais oil field in southern of Iraq which is situated at about 105 Km to the east from the Basra city. Luhais oil field was chosen to study the type and nature of the distribution of the seismic velocities of Nahr Umr and Zubair Formations in order to show its explorational importance, where these formations contain abundant quantities of hydrocarbons. Picking of the tops of Nahr Umr and Zubair was carried out from the synthetic seismogram which is calculated from sonic-logs and check shot of well Lu-2. Velocity model was obtained via using an implementation of Petrel program version, 2013 and was corrected according to to
... Show MorePhase change materials are known to be good in use in latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems, but one of their drawbacks is the slow melting and solidification processes. So that, in this work, enhancing heat transfer of phase change material is studied experimentally for in charging and discharging processes by the addition of high thermal conductive material such as copper in the form of brushes, which were added in both PCM and air sides. The additions of brushes have been carried out with different void fractions (97%, 94% and 90%) and the effect of four different air velocities was tested. The results indicate that the minimum brush void fraction gave the maximum heat transfer in PCM and reduced the time
... Show MoreContamination of surface and groundwater with excessive concentrations of fluoride is of significant health hazard. Adsorption of fluoride onto waste materials of no economic value could be a potential approach for the treatment of fluoride-bearing water. This experimental and modeling study was devoted to investigate for the first the fluoride removal using unmodified waste granular brick (WGB) in a fixed bed running in continuous mode. Characterization of WGB was carried out by FT-IR, SEM, and EDX analysis. The batch mode experiments showed that they were affected by several parameters including contact time, initial pH, and sorbent dosage. The best values of these parameters that provided maximum removal percent (82%) with the in
... Show MoreThe current research aims to identify the Impact of strategy of modeling in the of deductive thinking and the attitvde towards mathematics among students in the high school stage
through check the following hypotheses:
1.There is no difference statistically significant at the level (0.05) between the scores mean of the experimental group students who have studied according to the modeling strategy and scores of control group students who have studied according to ordinary method in deductive thinking.
2.
... Show MoreThe study aimed to investigate the effect of different times as follows 0.5, 1.00, 2.00 and 3.00 hrs, type of solvent (acetone, methanol and ethanol) and temperature (~ 25 and 50)ºc on curcumin percentage yield from turmeric rhizomes. The results showed significant differences (p? 0.05) in all variables. The curcumin content which were determined spectrophotometrically ranged between (0.55-2.90) %. The maximum yield was obtained when temperature, time and solvent were 50ºC, 3 hrs and acetone, respectively.
After Organization literature era, two literary schools appeared in Turkey and Abdulhaq Hamid is one of this period most prominent poets. During his stay in France with a group of colleagues sent by Turkish Government, he was greatly influenced by the French modern literature and the French modern literary authors.
The study discusses the concept of time in the poetry of Abdulhaq Hamid. Reading his poetry, it can be noticed that time is important where he frequently refers to day and night, morning and evening as time insinuations. Hence, the present paper gives a brief study of the poet’s life, and sheds lights on his poems that deal with time- concept.
Ön Söz
... Show MoreThe method of coordinate conversion is still considered important and laborious due to the shift from the spatial ellipsoidal (geographic) to the flat planned system. The most common method uses a contiguous UTM system as one of the most reliable systems in the conversion process; however, this system faces a problem in large areas that contain more than one zone. The goal of this research is to create a simple and low computational cost model to represent a non-contiguous semi-UTM geographic coordinates for confined regions of the globe. The considered region taken in this study is the northern parts of Arabian Gulf (including parts of Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and Saudi Arabia). The determined mathematical mode
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