Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
It is recognized that organisms live and interact in groups, exposing them to various elements like disease, fear, hunting cooperation, and others. As a result, in this paper, we adopted the construction of a mathematical model that describes the interaction of the prey with the predator when there is an infectious disease, as well as the predator community's characteristic of cooperation in hunting, which generates great fear in the prey community. Furthermore, the presence of an incubation period for the disease provides a delay in disease transmission from diseased predators to healthy predators. This research aims to examine the proposed mathematical model's solution behavior to better understand these elements' impact on an eco-epidemi
... Show MoreThe cheif aim of the present investigation is to develop Leslie Gower type three species food chain model with prey refuge. The intra-specific competition among the predators is considered in the proposed model. Besides the logistic growth rate for the prey species, Sokol Howell functional response for predation is chosen for our model formulation. The behaviour of the model system thoroughly analyses near the biologically significant equilibria. The linear stability analysis of the equilibria is carried out in order to examine the response of the system. The present model system experiences Hopf bifurcation depending on the choice of suitable model parameters. Extensive numerical simulation reveals the validity of the proposed model.
Non-orthogonal Multiple Access (NOMA) is a multiple-access technique allowing multiusers to share the same communication resources, increasing spectral efficiency and throughput. NOMA has been shown to provide significant performance gains over orthogonal multiple access (OMA) regarding spectral efficiency and throughput. In this paper, two scenarios of NOMA are analyzed and simulated, involving two users and multiple users (four users) to evaluate NOMA's performance. The simulated results indicate that the achievable sum rate for the two users’ scenarios is 16.7 (bps/Hz), while for the multi-users scenario is 20.69 (bps/Hz) at transmitted power of 25 dBm. The BER for two users’ scenarios is 0.004202 and 0.001564 for
... Show MoreThis paper deals with numerical approximations of a one-dimensional semilinear parabolic equation with a gradient term. Firstly, we derive the semidiscrete problem of the considered problem and discuss its convergence and blow-up properties. Secondly, we propose both Euler explicit and implicit finite differences methods with a non-fixed time-stepping procedure to estimate the numerical blow-up time of the considered problem. Finally, two numerical experiments are given to illustrate the efficiency, accuracy, and numerical order of convergence of the proposed schemes.
In real situations all observations and measurements are not exact numbers but more or less non-exact, also called fuzzy. So, in this paper, we use approximate non-Bayesian computational methods to estimate inverse Weibull parameters and reliability function with fuzzy data. The maximum likelihood and moment estimations are obtained as non-Bayesian estimation. The maximum likelihood estimators have been derived numerically based on two iterative techniques namely “Newton-Raphson†and the “Expectation-Maximization†techniques. In addition, we provide compared numerically through Monte-Carlo simulation study to obtained estimates of the parameters and reliability function i
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to apply different transportation models in their minimum and maximum values by finding starting basic feasible solution and finding the optimal solution. The requirements of transportation models were presented with one of their applications in the case of minimizing the objective function, which was conducted by the researcher as real data, which took place one month in 2015, in one of the poultry farms for the production of eggs
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