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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Comparing Ionospheric MUF using IRI16 Model with Mid-Latitude Ionosonde Observations and Associated with Strong Geomagnetic Storms
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High frequency (HF) radio wave propagation depends on the ionosphere status which is changed with the time of day, season, and solar activity conditions. In this research, ionosonde observations were used to calculate the values of maximum usable frequency (MUF) the ionospheric F2- layer during strong geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) which were compared with the predicted MUF for the same layer by using IRI-16 model. Data from years 2015 and 2017, during which five strong geomagnetic storms occurred, were selected from two Japanese ionosonde stations (Kokubunji and Wakkanai) located at the mid-latitude region. The results of the present work do not show a good correlation between the observed and predicted MUF values for F2- laye

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 08 2020
Journal Name
Medical Sciens
COVID-19 clinical characteristics and outcomes in 60 hospitalized Iraqi patients -Case series
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Background: since December 2019, China and in particularly Wuhan, faced an unprecedented an outbreak challenge of coronavirus disease 2019, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Clinical characteristics of Iraqi patients with COVID-19 and risk factors for mortality needed to be shared with the health care providers to improve the overall disease experience. Methods: prospective, single-center study recruited patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to Al-Shifaa Isolation Center / Baghdad Medical City between the mid of March and the end of April 2020 until had been discharged or had died. Demographic data, information on clinical signs, symptoms, at presentation, treatment, have been collected

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Some Estimation Methods for Mixed-Random Panel Data Regression Models with Serially Correlated Errors with Application
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This research includes the study of dual data models with mixed random parameters, which contain two types of parameters, the first is random and the other is fixed. For the random parameter, it is obtained as a result of differences in the marginal tendencies of the cross sections, and for the fixed parameter, it is obtained as a result of differences in fixed limits, and random errors for each section. Accidental bearing the characteristic of heterogeneity of variance in addition to the presence of serial correlation of the first degree, and the main objective in this research is the use of efficient methods commensurate with the paired data in the case of small samples, and to achieve this goal, the feasible general least squa

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Community Detection under Stochastic Block Model Likelihood Optimization via Tabu Search –Fuzzy C-Mean Method for Social Network Data
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     Structure of network, which is known as community detection in networks, has received a great attention in diverse topics, including social sciences, biological studies, politics, etc. There are a large number of studies and practical approaches that were designed to solve the problem of finding the structure of the network. The definition of complex network model based on clustering is a non-deterministic polynomial-time hardness (NP-hard) problem. There are no ideal techniques to define the clustering. Here, we present a statistical approach based on using the likelihood function of a Stochastic Block Model (SBM). The objective is to define the general model and select the best model with high quality. Therefor

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Advances In Structural Engineering
Simulation and design model for reinforced concrete slabs with lacing systems
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Lacing reinforcement plays a critical role in the design and performance of reinforced concrete (RC) slabs by distributing the applied loads more evenly across the slab, ensuring that no specific area of the slab is overloaded. In this study, nine slabs, divided into three groups according to the investigated parameters, were meticulously designed and evaluated to study the interplay between the lacing reinforcement and other key parameters. Each slab was crafted for simple support and was subjected to both static and repeated two-point load tests. The lacing reinforcement had an angle of 45° with various tension and lacing steel. The repeated-tested specimens with lacing reinforcement experienced smaller ductility than those of s

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Hydrogen Energy
Modeling of electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution via high voltage alkaline electrolyzer with different nano-electrocatalysts
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Photovoltaic system DC series arc fault: a case study
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<p>Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming increasingly popular; however, arc faults on the direct current (DC) side are becoming more widespread as a result of the effects of aging as well as the trend toward higher DC voltage levels, posing severe risk to human safety and system stability. The parallel arc faults present higher level of current as compared with the series arc faults, making it more difficult to spot the series arc. In this paper and for the aim of condition monitoring, the features of a DC series arc fault are analyzed by analysing the arc features, performing model’s simulation in PSCAD, and carrying out experimental studies. Various arc models are simulated and investigated; for low current arcs, the heur

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using SWAT Model to Estimate the Water Balance of Wadi Al-Mohammadi Basin, Western Iraq: Setup of SWAT Model, SWAT Model Run, Watershed Delineation, Climate Data, Quantification of Hydrological Components, and Water Balance of the Wadi Al-Mohammadi Basin.
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     Water balance as a technique is considered one of the means that is relied upon in solving significant hydrological problems. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used in this study to assess the water balance in the Wadi Al-Mohammadi basin located at the eastern edge of the Western Desert. Digital elevation model, soil data, Land use - Land cover, and climate data represent the most important requirements for the SWAT model's input as a database. The Wadi Al-Mohammadi basin delineation results show the overall drainage area was 2286.8 km2 with seven sub-basins. The trend line of climate data indicates a clear increase in the total rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, and solar radiation from 1990-

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 International Conference On Automation, Computational And Technology Management (icactm)
Multi-Resolution Hierarchical Structure for Efficient Data Aggregation and Mining of Big Data
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Big data analysis is essential for modern applications in areas such as healthcare, assistive technology, intelligent transportation, environment and climate monitoring. Traditional algorithms in data mining and machine learning do not scale well with data size. Mining and learning from big data need time and memory efficient techniques, albeit the cost of possible loss in accuracy. We have developed a data aggregation structure to summarize data with large number of instances and data generated from multiple data sources. Data are aggregated at multiple resolutions and resolution provides a trade-off between efficiency and accuracy. The structure is built once, updated incrementally, and serves as a common data input for multiple mining an

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 14 2014
Journal Name
Molecular Crystals And Liquid Crysta
Synthesis and Mesomorphic Behavior of Two New Homologous Series Containing Azobenzene and 1,3,4-Oxadiazole Units
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Two new nonsymmetrical mesogenic homologous series of terminal substituent ether (series [Vn]) and carboxy (series [VIn]) incorporating azobenzene and 1,3,4-oxadiazole group were synthesized. Both series have been All compounds thus isolated were purified and characterized by elemental analysis, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, 1H NMR, along with thermal analysis and texture observation using Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Polarizing Optical Microscopy (POM), respectively. All compounds of the first series exhibited liquid crystalline properties. The homologues [V1]-[V3] display a nematic mesophase, the compounds [V4]-[V7] exhibit a dimorphism behavior, nematic (N) and smectic A (SmA) mesophases, the compounds [V8] and

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