Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The research aims to measure the efficiency of health services Quality in the province of Karbala, using the Data Envelopment analysis Models in ( 2006). According to these models the degree of efficiency ranging between zero and unity. We estimate Scale efficiency for two types of orientation direction, which are input and output oriented direction.
The results showed, according Input-oriented efficiency that the levels of Scale efficiency on average is ( 0.975), in the province of Karbala. While the index of Output-oriented efficiency on average is (o.946).
In this study, SnO2 nanoparticles were prepared from cost-low tin chloride (SnCl2.2H2O) and ethanol by adding ammonia solution by the sol-gel method, which is one of the lowest-cost and simplest techniques. The SnO2 nanoparticles were dried in a drying oven at a temperature of 70°C for 7 hours. After that, it burned in an oven at a temperature of 200°C for 24 hours. The structure, material, morphological, and optical properties of the synthesized SnO2 in nanoparticle sizes are studied utilizing X-ray diffraction. The Scherrer expression was used to compute nanoparticle sizes according to X-ray diffraction, and the results needed to be scrutinized more closely. The micro-strain indi
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Abstract:
We can notice cluster data in social, health and behavioral sciences, so this type of data have a link between its observations and we can express these clusters through the relationship between measurements on units within the same group.
In this research, I estimate the reliability function of cluster function by using the seemingly unrelate
... Show MoreCarbonate reservoirs are an essential source of hydrocarbons worldwide, and their petrophysical properties play a crucial role in hydrocarbon production. Carbonate reservoirs' most critical petrophysical properties are porosity, permeability, and water saturation. A tight reservoir refers to a reservoir with low porosity and permeability, which means it is difficult for fluids to move from one side to another. This study's primary goal is to evaluate reservoir properties and lithological identification of the SADI Formation in the Halfaya oil field. It is considered one of Iraq's most significant oilfields, 35 km south of Amarah. The Sadi formation consists of four units: A, B1, B2, and B3. Sadi A was excluded as it was not filled with h
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Shear and compressional wave velocities, coupled with other petrophysical data, are vital in determining the dynamic modules magnitude in geomechanical studies and hydrocarbon reservoir characterization. But, due to field practices and high running cost, shear wave velocity may not available in all wells. In this paper, a statistical multivariate regression method is presented to predict the shear wave velocity for Khasib formation - Amara oil fields located in South- East of Iraq using well log compressional wave velocity, neutron porosity and density. The accuracy of the proposed correlation have been compared to other correlations. The results show that, the presented model provides accurate
... Show MoreIn this study, SnO2 nanoparticles were prepared from cost-low tin chloride (SnCl2.2H2O) and ethanol by adding ammonia solution by the sol-gel method, which is one of the lowest-cost and simplest techniques. The SnO2 nanoparticles were dried in a drying oven at a temperature of 70°C for 7 hours. After that, it burned in an oven at a temperature of 200°C for 24 hours. The structure, material, morphological, and optical properties of the synthesized SnO2 in nanoparticle sizes are studied utilizing X-ray diffraction. The Scherrer expression was used to compute nanoparticle sizes according to X-ray diffraction, and the results needed to be scrutinized more closely. The micro-strain indicates the broadening of diffraction peaks for nano
... Show MoreTau-P linear noise attenuation filter (TPLNA) was applied on the 3D seismic data of Al-Samawah area south west of Iraq with the aim of attenuating linear noise. TPLNA transforms the data from time domain to tau-p domain in order to increase signal to noise ratio. Applying TPLNA produced very good results considering the 3D data that usually have a large amount of linear noise from different sources and in different azimuths and directions. This processing is very important in later interpretation due to the fact that the signal was covered by different kinds of noise in which the linear noise take a large part.
Automatic Programming Assessment (APA) has been gaining lots of attention among researchers mainly to support automated grading and marking of students’ programming assignments or exercises systematically. APA is commonly identified as a method that can enhance accuracy, efficiency and consistency as well as providing instant feedback on students’ programming solutions. In achieving APA, test data generation process is very important so as to perform a dynamic testing on students’ assignment. In software testing field, many researches that focus on test data generation have demonstrated the successful of adoption of Meta-Heuristic Search Techniques (MHST) so as to enhance the procedure of deriving adequate test data for efficient t
... Show MoreThe study aimed to analyze the effect of meteorological factors (rainfall rate and temperature) on the change in land use in the marshes of the Al‐Majar Al‐Kabir region in southern Iraq. Satellite images from Landsat 7 for 2012 and Landsat 8 for 2022 were used to monitor changes in the land coverings, the images taken from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensors of the Landsat satellite. Geometric correction was used to convert images into a format with precise geographic coordinates using ArcMap 10.5. The maximum likelihood classification method was used to examine satellite image data using a supervised approach, and the data were analyzed statistically. We obtained clear images of the area,
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