Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The optimization calculations are made to find the optimum properties of combined quadrupole lens consist of electrostatic and magnetic lenses to produce achromatic lens. The modified bell-shaped model is used and the calculation is made by solving the equation of motion and finding the transfer matrices in convergence and divergence planes, these matrices are used to find the properties of lens as the magnification and aberrations coefficients. To find the optimum values of chromatic and spherical aberrations coefficients, the effect of both the excitation parameter of the lens (n) and the effective length of the lens into account as effective parameters in the optimization processing
‎ Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19 pandemic ‎has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a ‎major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and ‎‎12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs ‎and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in ‎the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important ‎factors that helped the rapid spread of the ep
... Show MoreHe mentioned in this article the main types of corruption, which are political, moral, financial and administrative. Others may add other types of corruption, such as religious, scientific, media, informational and statistical corruption. At the global level, the focus is largely on financial corruption, although other types of corruption are no less bad than it. Financial corruption can be defined as all financial deviations in violation of general laws or the provisions of regulations, legislation, and procedures regulating the work of the state, private institutions and individuals and applied in state institutions and the private sector in general and inconsistent with the controls and instructions of financial control.
In th
... Show MoreThis research sheds light on those discrepancies in the use of ornaments, adornment and perfumes, as well as the art of cosmetics, in two important civilizations, namely, the Mesopotamian civilization as the earlier civilization, and the civilization of Yemen, which represents the first Arab civilization. Through the foregoing, our research includes two topics, the first topic included the history of the use of decorations, ornaments and perfumes in the civilization of Mesopotamia, while the second topic included the study of ornaments, adornment and cosmetic art in the ancient civilization of Yemen. And then the research came out with a number of conclusions that the researcher considers very important to highlight the differences and f
... Show MoreThe differential cross section for the Rhodium and Tantalum has been calculated by using the Cross Section Calculations (CSC) in range of energy(1keV-1MeV) . This calculations based on the programming of the Klein-Nashina and Rayleigh Equations. Atomic form factors as well as the coherent functions in Fortran90 language Machine proved very fast an accurate results and the possibility of application of such model to obtain the total coefficient for any elements or compounds.
— In light of the pandemic that has swept the world, the use of e-learning in educational institutions has become an urgent necessity for continued knowledge communication with students. Educational institutions can benefit from the free tools that Google provide and from these applications, Google classroom which is characterized by ease of use, but the efficiency of using Google classroom is affected by several variables not studied in previous studies Clearly, this study aimed to identify the use of Google classroom as a system for managing e-learning and the factors affecting the performance of students and lecturer. The data of this study were collected from 219 members of the faculty and students at the College of Administra
... Show MoreThe seismic method depends on the nature of the reflected waves from the interfaces between layers, which in turn depends on the density and velocity of the layer, and this is called acoustic impedance. The seismic sections of the East Abu-Amoud field that is located in Missan Province, south-eastern Iraq, were studied and interpreted for updating the structural picture of the major Mishrif Formation for the reservoir in the field. The Mishrif Formation is rich in petroleum in this area, with an area covering about 820 km2. The horizon was calibrated and defined on the seismic section with well logs data (well tops, check shot, sonic logs, and density logs) in the interp
... Show MoreDerivative spectrophotometry is one of the analytical chemistry techniques used
in the analysis and determination of chemicals and pharmaceuticals. This method is
characterized by simplicity, sensitivity and speed. Derivative of Spectra conducted
in several ways, including optical, electronic and mathematical. This operation
usually be done within spectrophotometer. The paper is based on form of a new
program. The program construction is written in Visual Basic language within
Microsoft Excel. The program is able to transform the first, second, third and fourth
derivatives of data and the return of these derivatives to zero order (normal plot).
The program was applied on experimental (trial) and reals values of su