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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The aesthetic work of theatrical rehearsal and its directing applications "Taqasim on Al-Hayat Play as a model"
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This research reviews the aesthetic variables that were founded according to (theatrical rehearsal) as one of the most important pillars on which the theatrical process is based, because of its necessity in developing theatrical art on several levels that helped the theatrical director in organizing his work, and this became clear through the research chapters represented in the first chapter (methodological framework) and the second chapter, which consisted of the first topic (the duality of watching / rehearsal) and the second topic (the applications of theatrical rehearsal in theatrical experiences), all the way to the third chapter (research procedures), which included the analysis of theatrical rehearsals (sharing on life), and the

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 06 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning (ijet)
The Impact of a Scenario-Based Learning Model in Mathematics Achievement and Mental Motivation for High School Students
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 06 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Building HEC-RAS model to detect the areas of Water Cycle Interruption in river stream and their sections
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The purpose of this paper is to build a simulation model by using HEC-RAS software to simulate the reality of water movement in the main river of Basra City (South of Iraq) which is known as Siraji-Khoura River. The main objective of the simulation is to detect areas where the water cycle is interrupted in some stations of the river stream, as this river has become an outlet for the disposal of sewage, leading to pollution and causing weakness in some sections of the river & obstructing the water cycle that takes place between this river and Shatt al – Arab river. A field survey data of the river and its banks were adopted to derive the grades, longitudinal and cross sections of the river, these data included three-dimensional coordinates

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 11 2025
Journal Name
Wasit Journal Of Sports Sciences
The impact of the Needham model on learning the skills of dribbling and handling in football for students
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Problematic intervention in the new international order and its impact on international relations - the U.S. role a model
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Intervention in International Relations from the concepts that are still highly
controversial among those he considers a breach of international law and the UN Charter and
in violation of the rule , and those who felt that the need provided, however, that this is linked
motives humanity recognized by the international community , because the international
variables proved the inadequacy of the principle of non-interference and the principle of
sovereignty as the traditional variables international , and therefore most of the international
practice came a bus with many of the behaviors that reflect a decline in its entirety to these
principles , and became adapt these principles with international reality is too compl

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing current and future direction of non-oil primary balance: Case Study of Iraq Using Exponential Smoothing model
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In recent years, non-oil primary balance indicator has been given considerable financial important in rentier state. It highly depends on this indicator to afford a clear and proper picture of public finance situation in term of appropriate and sustainability in these countries, due to it excludes the effect of oil- rental from compound of financial accounts which provide sufficient information to economic policy makers of how economy is able to create potential added value and then changes by eliminating one sided shades of economy. In Iraq, since, 2004, the deficit in value of this indicator has increased, due to almost complete dependence on the revenues of the oil to finance the budget and the obvious decline of the non-oil s

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
CALCULATION BIASES FOR COEFFICIENTS AND SCALE PARAMETER FOR LINEAR (TYPE 1) EXTREME VALUE REGRESSION MODEL FOR LARGEST VALUES
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Abstract

Characterized by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) on Maximum Likelihood for the greatest possible way that the exact moments are known , which means that it can be found, while the other method they are unknown, but approximations to their biases correct to 0(n-1) can be obtained by standard methods. In our research expressions for approximations to the biases of the ML estimators (the regression coefficients and scale parameter) for linear (type 1) Extreme Value Regression Model for Largest Values are presented by using the advanced approach depends on finding the first derivative, second and third.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using system dynamics model and the statistical indicators for Road Map of "Green government departments" project In Iraq
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Abstract                                                         

The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Dynamics of Modified Leslie-Gower Predator-Prey Model Under the Influence of Nonlinear Harvesting and Fear Effect
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with fear effect and nonlinear harvesting is developed and investigated in this study. The predator is supposed to feed on the prey using Holling type-II functional response. The goal is to see how fear of predation and presence of harvesting affect the model's dynamics. The system's positivity and boundlessness are demonstrated. All conceivable equilibria's existence and stability requirements are established. All sorts of local bifurcation occurrence conditions are presented. Extensive numerical simulations of the proposed model are shown in form of Phase portraits and direction fields. That is to guarantee the correctness of the theoretical results of the dynamic behavior of the system and t

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Publication Date
Tue May 16 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Institutional Reality Construction: Principles of its Construction and Functions of Language in its Production; Diplomacy as a Model
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This study aims to answer a significant problem of social sciences and philosophy: How do we construct an institutional reality such as diplomacy with an objective recognizable existence? The study assumes that the ability to build institutional reality is based on our biological capacity, as it takes different forms in all the institutions we construct. The study takes the theory of the American philosopher John Searle as an approach to examining the assumption. The study sums up important findings; cultures, although they share the biological capacity on which they produce institutional realities, differ in the form of the value standards on which the institutional realities are based. The study recommends the need of Arab social resea

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