Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The research aims to identify the importance of using the style of the cost on the basis of activity -oriented in time TDABC and its role in determining the cost of products more equitably and thus its impact on the policy of allocation of resources through the reverse of the changes that occur on an ongoing basis in the specification of the products and thus the change in the nature and type of operations . The research was conducted at the General Company for Textile Industries Wasit / knitting socks factory was based on research into the hypothesis main of that ( possible to calculate the cost of activities that cause the production through the time it takes to run these activities can then be re- distributed product cost
... Show MoreThe Current research aims to identify ( the effect of Carin model in the achievement of the first intermediate Grade Students and their Reflective Thinking in physics Subject ) the researcher selected the experimental design with a partial adjust , The research sample consisted of ( 47 ) Students with ( 23 ) Students in the experimental group and ( 24 ) Students in the control group , The two groups rewarded in the variables chronological age in months , Reflective Thinking and the degrees in physics in the first course. The researcher coined the purposes of behavioral which belong to chapter fifth, sixth, and seventh of physics books scheduled of the school year ( 2015-2016 ) and prepared appropriate lesson plans for the two experimenta
... Show MoreThis paper analyzes the effect of scaling-up model and acceleration history on seismic response of closed-ended pipe pile using a finite element modeling approach and the findings of 1 g shaking table tests of a pile embedded in dry and saturated soils. A number of scaling laws were used to create the numerical modeling according to the data obtained from 1 g shake table tests performed in the laboratory. The current study found that the behaviors of the scaled models, in general have similar trends. From numerical modeling on both the dry and saturated sands, the normalized lateral displacement, bending moment, and vertical displacement of piles with scale factors of 2 and 35 are less than those of the pile with a scale factor of 1 and the
... Show MoreAbstract
In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
... Show MoreQuantitative real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR) has become a valuable molecular technique in biomedical research. The selection of suitable endogenous reference genes is necessary for normalization of target gene expression in RT-qPCR experiments. The aim of this study was to determine the suitability of each 18S rRNA and ACTB as internal control genes for normalization of RT-qPCR data in some human cell lines transfected with small interfering RNA (siRNA). Four cancer cell lines including MCF-7, T47D, MDA-MB-231 and Hela cells along with HEK293 representing an embryonic cell line were depleted of E2F6 using siRNA specific for E2F6 compared to negative control cells, which were transfected with siRNA not specific for any gene. Us
... Show MoreCommunication is one of the vast and rapidly growing fields of engineering, where
increasing the efficiency of communication by overcoming the external
electromagnetic sources and noise is considered a challenging task. To achieve
confidentiality for color image transmission over the noisy communication channels
a proposed algorithm is presented for image encryption using AES algorithm. This
algorithm combined with error detections using Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC) to
preserve the integrity of the encrypted data. This paper presents an error detection
method uses Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC), the CRC value can be generated by
two methods: Serial and Parallel CRC Implementation. The proposed algorithm for
the
The seismic reflection method has a primary role in petroleum exploration. This research is a structural interpretation study of the 2D seismic reflection survey carried out in the Upper West Euphrates (Khan Al-Baghdadi area), which is located in the western part of Iraq, Al-Anbar governorate. The two objectives of this research are to interpret Base Akkas/Top Khabour reflector and to define potential hydrocarbon traps in the surveyed area. Based on the synthetic seismogram of Akk_3 well near the study area, the Akkas/Top Khabour reflector was identified on the seismic section. Also, the Silurian Akkas Hot_shale reflector was identified and followed up, which represents the source and seal rocks of the Paleozoic
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to use the data content analysis technique (DEA) in evaluating the efficiency of the performance of the eight branches of the General Tax Authority, located in Baghdad, represented by Karrada, Karkh parties, Karkh Center, Dora, Bayaa, Kadhimiya, New Baghdad, Rusafa according to the determination of the inputs represented by the number of non-accountable taxpayers and according to the categories professions and commercial business, deduction, transfer of property ownership, real estate and tenders, In addition to determining the outputs according to the checklist that contains nine dimensions to assess the efficiency of the performance of the investigated branches by investing their available resources T
... Show MoreResearch on the automated extraction of essential data from an electrocardiography (ECG) recording has been a significant topic for a long time. The main focus of digital processing processes is to measure fiducial points that determine the beginning and end of the P, QRS, and T waves based on their waveform properties. The presence of unavoidable noise during ECG data collection and inherent physiological differences among individuals make it challenging to accurately identify these reference points, resulting in suboptimal performance. This is done through several primary stages that rely on the idea of preliminary processing of the ECG electrical signal through a set of steps (preparing raw data and converting them into files tha
... Show More