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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Random Noise Attenuation by using FDNAT Filter on Seismic Data in East Diwaniya, South Eastern – Iraq
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The frequency dependent noise attenuation (FDNAT) filter was applied on 2D seismic data line DE21 in east Diwaniya, south eastern Iraq to improve the signal to noise ratio. After applied FDNAT on the seismic data, it gives good results and caused to remove a lot of random noise. This processing is helpful in enhancement the picking of the signal of the reflectors and therefore the interpretation of data will be easy later. The quality control by using spectrum analysis is used as a quality factor in proving the effects of FDNAT filter to remove the random noise.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Developing Human Capital according to the Communities of Practice: A comparative study by using Data Envelopment Analysis
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The research discusses the need to find the innovative structures and methodologies for developing Human Capital (HC) in Iraqi Universities. One of the most important of these structures is Communities of Practice (CoPs) which contributes to develop HC by using learning, teaching and training through the conversion speed of knowledge and creativity into practice. This research has been used the comparative approach through employing the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using (Excel 2010 - Solver) as a field evidence to prove the role of CoPs in developing HC. In light of the given information, a researcher adopted on an archived preliminary data about (23) colleges at Mosul University as a deliberate sample for t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use The moment method to Estimate the Reliability Function Of The Data Of Truncated Skew Normal Distribution
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The Estimation Of The Reliability Function Depends On The Accuracy Of The Data Used To Estimate The Parameters Of The Probability distribution, and Because Some Data Suffer from a Skew in their Data to Estimate the Parameters and Calculate the Reliability Function in light of the Presence of Some Skew in the Data, there must be a Distribution that has flexibility in dealing with that Data. As in the data of Diyala Company for Electrical Industries, as it was observed that there was a positive twisting in the data collected from the Power and Machinery Department, which required distribution that deals with those data and searches for methods that accommodate this problem and lead to accurate estimates of the reliability function,

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effect of laser process an inclined surface cutting of mild steel then analysis data statistically by RSM
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The regression analysis process is used to study and predicate the surface response by using the design of experiment (DOE) as well as roughness calculation through developing a mathematical model. In this study; response surface methodology and the particular solution technique are used. Design of experiment used a series of the structured statistical analytic approach to investigate the relationship between some parameters and their responses. Surface roughness is one of the important parameters which play an important role. Also, its found that the cutting speed can result in small effects on surface roughness. This work is focusing on all considerations to make interaction between the parameters (position of influenc

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Splitting the one-Dimensional Wave Equation, Part II: Additional Data are Given by an End Displacement Measurement
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     In this research, an unknown space-dependent force function in the wave equation is studied. This is a natural continuation of [1] and chapter 2 of [2] and [3], where the finite difference method (FDM)/boundary element method (BEM), with the separation of variables method, were considered. Additional data are given by the one end displacement measurement. Moreover, it is a continuation of [3], with exchanging the boundary condition, where  are extra data, by the initial condition. This is an ill-posed inverse force problem for linear hyperbolic equation. Therefore, in order to stabilize the solution, a zeroth-order Tikhonov regularization method is provided. To assess the accuracy, the minimum error between

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Vertical variations of Atmospheric Methane (CH4) concentrations over selected cities in Iraq based on AIRS data
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The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on EOS/Aqua satellite provides diverse measurements of Methane (CH4) distribution at different pressure levels in the Earth's atmosphere. The focus of this research is to analyze the vertical variations of (CH4) volume mixing ratio (VMR) time-series data at four Standard pressure levels SPL (925, 850, 600, and 300 hPa) in the troposphere above six cities in Iraq from January 2003 to September 2016. The analysis results of monthly average CH4VMR time-series data show a significant increase between 2003 and 2016, especially from 2009 to 2016; the minimum values of CH4 were in 2003 while the maximum values were in 2016. The vertical distribution of CH4<

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 02 2024
Journal Name
International Development Planning Review
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE AMOUNT OF FORCE EXERTED ON THE GROUND AND THE TIME OF PROPULSION IN THE VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL JUMPING TESTS FROM STABILITY USING A FOOT SCAN DEVICE
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Sumer 1
The effect of silver diamine fluoride on the microleakage of glass ionomer restoration in primary teeth at different time intervals
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Silver diamine fluoride (SDF) has shown effectiveness in hardening tooth structure and killing bacteria. Therefore, it can be used to prevent and arrest dental caries. Riva Star (SDF) treatment alone will stop cavities but will not reverse the cavitation. The Silver Modified Atraumatic Procedure, often known as Smart, is the optimum technique for regaining the tooth's structure and function. Glass ionomer was introduced in (1972) as a new material that has become one of the most widely used materials in restorative dentistry. By releasing fluoride ions, this material has a therapeutic impact on the surrounding tooth structure. Microleakage is the ingress of bacteria, its byproducts, toxins, chemicals, oral fluids, and ions between t

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Anthropology and Representations of Magic in Arab Theatrical Text Harut and Marut's Play as a Model: وصال خلفة كاظم البكري
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The research (Anthropology and Representations of magic in Arab Theatrical Text, Harut and Marut's play as a Model) is concerned with studying magic and the forms of its presence in the theatrical text in different human cultures where it belongs. The research consists of four chapters.
The first chapter includes the research problem that revolves around the following questions: (what is the mechanism of employing magic anthropology and its representations in the Arab theatrical text Harut and Marut's play as a model?), and the research importance which is attributed to the necessity of studying (magic) in the Arab theatrical text as it is considered the inauguration of one of the social phenomena that many researchers in the field o

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