Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The logistic regression model regarded as the important regression Models ,where of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis .
The ordinary estimating methods is failed in dealing with data that consist of the presence of outlier values and hence on the absence of such that have undesirable effect on the result. &nbs
... Show MoreThe present paper concerned with study the of combined electro-osmotic peristaltic transport with heat and mass transfer which is represented by the Soret and Dufour phenomenon with the presence of the Joule electrothermal heating through a microchannel occupy by Rabinowitsch fluid. The unsteady two-dimensional governing equations for flow with energy and concentration conservation have been formed in a Cartesian coordinate system and the lubrication theory is applied to modify the relevant equations to the problem. The Debye-Hukel linearization approximation is utilizing to modify the electrohydrodynamics problem. The expressions for the axial velocity, the temperature profile, the concentration profile, and the volumetric flow rate are
... Show MoreThe audience is one of the important practical elements in the theatrical show and its importance is not confined to its static activity as a receiver element only, rather it went beyond that issue as an effective and influential element in the proceedings of the show and the process of meaning construction, that it gains an active role in the construction and production of the connotation that influences and is influenced by the actor, where the communication channels are open between the two sides, consequently a kind of watching and joint interaction happens between them. Thus, it has become necessary for the actor to create a suitable environment for the onlookers in order for it to be an essential part of the show system. The
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The study presents a mathematical model with a disaggregating approach to the problem of production planning of a fida Company; which belongs to the ministry of Industry. The study considers disaggregating the entire production into 3 productive families of (hydraulic cylinders, Aldblatt (dampers), connections hydraulics with each holds similar characteristics in terms of the installation cost, production time and stock cost. The Consequences are an ultimate use of the available production capacity as well as meeting the requirements of these families at a minimal cost using linear programming. Moreover, the study considers developing a Master production schedule that drives detailed material and production requi
... Show MoreThe nuclear structure for the positive ( ) States and negative ( ) states of 36,40Ar nuclei have been studied via electromagnetic transitions within the framework of shell model. The shell model analysis has been performed for the electromagnetic properties, in particular, the excitation energies, occupancies numbers, the transition strengths B(CL) and the elastic and inelastic electron scattering longitudinal form factors. Different model spaces with different appropriate interactions have been considered for all selected states. The deduced results for the (CL) longitudinal form factors and other properties have been discussed and compared with the available experimental data. The inclusion of the effective
... Show MoreIn the present study, activated carbon supported metal oxides was prepared for thiophene removal from model fuel (Thiophene in n-hexane) using adsorptive desulfurization technique. Commercial activated carbon was loaded individually with copper oxide in the form of Cu2O/AC. A comparison of the kinetic and isotherm models of the sorption of thiophene from model fuel was made at different operating conditions including adsorbent dose, initial thiophene concentration and contact time. Various adsorption rate constants and isotherm parameters were calculated. Results indicated that the desulfurization was enhanced when copper was loaded onto activated carbon surface. The highest desulfurization percent for Cu2O/AC and o
... Show MoreThis paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc
... Show MoreThe ground state densities of unstable neutron-rich 11Li and 12Be exotic nuclei are studied in the framework of the binary cluster model (BCM). The internal densities of the clusters are described by the single particle harmonic oscillator wave functions. The long tail performance is clearly noticed in the calculated neutron and matter density distributions of these nuclei. The structures of the two valence neutrons in 11Li and 12Be are found to be mixed configurations with dominant (1p1/2)2. Elastic electron scattering proton form factors for 11Li and 12Be are studied using the plane wave Born approximation (PWBA). It is found that the major difference between the calculated form factors of unstable nuclei [11Li, 12Be] and those of stab
... Show More<span lang="EN-US">The need for robotics systems has become an urgent necessity in various fields, especially in video surveillance and live broadcasting systems. The main goal of this work is to design and implement a rover robotic monitoring system based on raspberry pi 4 model B to control this overall system and display a live video by using a webcam (USB camera) as well as using you only look once algorithm-version five (YOLOv5) to detect, recognize and display objects in real-time. This deep learning algorithm is highly accurate and fast and is implemented by Python, OpenCV, PyTorch codes and the Context Object Detection Task (COCO) 2020 dataset. This robot can move in all directions and in different places especially in
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