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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 27 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Shell model study of neutron rich 18-28O isotopes using effective interactions
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We employ a simple effective nucleon-nucleon interaction for sd-shell model calculations derived from the Reid soft-core potential folded with two-body correlation functions which take account of the strong short-range repulsion and large tensor component in the Reid force. Shell model calculations for ground and low lying energy states of neutron rich oxygen isotopes 18-28O are performed using OXBASH code. Generally, this interaction predicts correct ordering of levels, yields reasonable energies for ground states of considered isotopes and predicts very well the newly observed excitation energy of
in 26O. Besides, it produces reasonable energy spectra for 23-27O and compressed energy spectra for 18-22O isotopes. This is mainly due e

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Structural Equation Modeling for Tourist Attraction Factors in Asir Region by Using Factor Analysis in the Light of Vision of kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) 2030
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The research aimed to modeling a structural equation for tourist attraction factors in Asir Region. The research population is the people in the region, and a simple random sample of 332 individuals were selected. The factor analysis as a reliable statistical method in this phenomenon was used to modeling and testing the structural model of tourism, and analyzing the data by using SPSS and AMOS statistical computerized programs. The study reached a number of results, the most important of them are: the tourist attraction factors model consists of five factors which explain 69.3% of the total variance. These are: the provision of tourist services, social and historic factors, mountains, weather and natural parks. And the differenc

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 21 2020
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
MONITORING OF THE WILD MAMMAL FAUNA IN BAMO MOUNTAIN IN NORTHERN IRAQ (KURDISTAN) FOR THE FIRST TIME USING CAMERA TRAP METHOD AND RAISING AWARENESS FOR ITS CONSERVATION
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Mammals are under threat worldwide due to deforestation, hunting, and other human activities. In Iraq, a total of 93 species of wild mammals have been recorded including species with global conservation concern. Bamo Mountain is situated within the Zagros Mountains in northern Iraq which is a suitable habitat for wild mammals. Due to scarcity of the field survey efforts and cryptic behavior, monitoring of the wild mammals fauna in Zagros Mountain seems challenging. Therefore, we used a camera trap which seems to be an ideal way to determine species diversity of wild mammals in Bamo Mountain. Moreover, interviews with local villagers were performed. The mammalian diversity of Bamo Mountain is not fully explored but seemed threatened by lo

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of estimation methods for regression model parametersIn the case of the problem of linear multiplicity and abnormal values
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 A simulation study is used to examine the robustness of some estimators on a multiple linear regression model with problems of multicollinearity and non-normal errors, the Ordinary least Squares (LS) ,Ridge Regression, Ridge Least Absolute Value (RLAV), Weighted Ridge (WRID), MM and a robust ridge regression estimator MM estimator, which denoted as RMM this is the modification of the Ridge regression by incorporating robust MM estimator . finialy, we show that RMM is the best among the other estimators

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Structural Interpretations for Zubair Formation in Kumait oil field, Using 3D Seismic Reflection Data, Southern-East Iraq
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     This study deals with the interpretation of structural 3D seismic reflection of the Kumait oil field in southern Iraq within the administrative boundaries of the Maysan Governorate. Synthetic seismograms are prepared by using available data of the Kt-1 oil field by using Petrel software to define and pick the reflector on the seismic section of the Zubair Formation, Which represents the Cretaceous Age. The study shows that the Kumait structure is an anticline fold. It is thought to be a structure trap caused by the collision of the Arabian and Iranian plates and trending in the same direction as driving factors in the area, which are from the northwest to the southeast, and the overall trend of strata is north and northeast. Sei

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
SDN-RA: An Optimized Reschedule Algorithm of SDN Load Balancer for Data Center Networks Based on QoS
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Abstract<p>With the development of cloud computing during the latest years, data center networks have become a great topic in both industrial and academic societies. Nevertheless, traditional methods based on manual and hardware devices are burdensome, expensive, and cannot completely utilize the ability of physical network infrastructure. Thus, Software-Defined Networking (SDN) has been hyped as one of the best encouraging solutions for future Internet performance. SDN notable by two features; the separation of control plane from the data plane, and providing the network development by programmable capabilities instead of hardware solutions. Current paper introduces an SDN-based optimized Resch</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 31 2022
Journal Name
Biodiversitas Journal Of Biological Diversity
Identification of new species record of Cyanophyceae in Diyala River, Iraq based on 16S rRNA sequence data
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Abstract. Hassan FM, Mahdi WM, Al-Haideri HH, Kamil DW. 2022. Identification of new species record of Cyanophyceae in Diyala River, Iraq based on 16S rRNA sequence data. Biodiversitas 23: 5239-5246. The biodiversity and water quality of the Diyala River require screening water in terms of biological contamination, because it is the only water source in Diyala City and is used for many purposes. This study aimed to identify a new species record of Cynaophyceae and emphasize the importance of using molecular methods beside classic morphological approaches, particularly in the water-shrinkage-aqua system. Five different sites along Diyala River were selected for Cyanophyceae identification. Morphological examination and 16S rRNA sequen

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Land Use/Cover Change Analysis Using Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study, Zhengzhou Area, Henan Province, China
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In the last two decades, arid and semi-arid regions of China suffered rapid changes in the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) due to increasing demand on food, resulting from growing population. In the process of this study, we established the land use/cover classification in addition to remote sensing characteristics. This was done by analysis of the dynamics of (LUCC) in Zhengzhou area for the period 1988-2006. Interpretation of a laminar extraction technique was implied in the identification of typical attributes of land use/cover types. A prominent result of the study indicates a gradual development in urbanization giving a gradual reduction in crop field area, due to the progressive economy in Zhengzhou. The results also reflect degradati

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Publication Date
Sun May 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Coherent Noise Attenuation Using AGORA Filter on 2D Seismic Data in East Diwaniya, South Eastern – Iraq
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Coherent noise such as ground roll and guided wave is present in the seismic line DE21 (East Diwaniya south eastern Iraq) and it obscures seismic signal and degrades from the quality of data. To attenuate the coherent noise from the shot gather and the Stack of the seismic line, AGORA filter was applied in order to obtain the good signal as the hyperbola shape in shot gather and the reflectors will be clearly to interpret it later. It has given good results and the coherent noise was attenuated in high ratio on all the line. The spectrum analysis is confirmed the effectiveness of AGORA filter to attenuate the coherent noise. 

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 29 2022
Journal Name
World Journal Of Clinical Infectious Diseases
Five-year retrospective hospital-based study on epidemiological data regarding human leishmaniasis in West Kordofan state, Sudan
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