Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The problem of internal sulfate attack in concrete is widespread in Iraq and neighboring countries.This is because of the high sulfate content usually present in sand and gravel used in it. In the present study the total effective sulfate in concrete was used to calculate the optimum SO3 content. Regression models were developed based on linear regression analysis to predict the optimum SO3 content usually referred as (O.G.C) in concrete. The data is separated to 155 for the development of the models and 37 for checking the models. Eight models were built for 28-days age. Then a late age (greater than 28-days) model was developed based on the predicted optimum SO3 content of 28-days and late age. Eight developed models were built for all
... Show MoreThis research is considered one of the important researches in Maysan Governorate, as it focuses on the construction of helicopter airport project in the oil fields of the Maysan Oil Company, where the oil general companies in Maysan Governorate suffer from the cost of transporting the foreign engineering experts and the governing equipment of sustaining oil industry from Iraq's international airports to oil fields and vice versa. Private international transport companies transport foreign engineering from the oil fields to Iraqi airports and vice versa, and other international security companies take action to provide protection for foreign engineering experts during transportation. Hence, this process is very costly.
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... Show MoreThe main objective of resources management is to supply and support the site operation with necessary resources in a way to achieve the required timing in handing over the work as well as to achieve the cost-realism within the budget estimated. The research aims to know the advantage of using GIS in management of resources as one of the new tools that keep pace with the evolution in various countries around the world also collect the vast amount of spatial data resources in one environment easily to handled and accessed quickly and this help to make the right decision regarding management of resources in various construction projects. The process of using GIS in the management and identification of resources is of extreme importance in t
... Show MoreRoaming data is an important source of information about the political and social activities of a country. And this is true for Iraq situation after 2003 when the mobile companies started their business. In this paper, data of subscribers roamed onto foreign networks (inbound roamers) is collected; it consists of the name of the Radio Control Point, the counter dealing with this type of information, Mobile Network Code/Mobile Country Code tupel. This data is processed. Results obtained out of this process show the classification of the inbound roamers (according to their countries) during the occupation period (2008-2009). These results reflect the political situation of Iraq at that time. Information resulted from this proc
... Show MoreThe paired sample t-test for testing the difference between two means in paired data is not robust against the violation of the normality assumption. In this paper, some alternative robust tests have been suggested by using the bootstrap method in addition to combining the bootstrap method with the W.M test. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were employed to study the performance of the test statistics of each of these three tests depending on type one error rates and the power rates of the test statistics. The three tests have been applied on different sample sizes generated from three distributions represented by Bivariate normal distribution, Bivariate contaminated normal distribution, and the Bivariate Exponential distribution.
This research is focused on an interpretive of 2D seismic data to study is reinterpreting seismic data by applying sufficient software (Petrel 2017) of the area between Al-Razzazah Lake and the Euphrates river belonging to Karbala'a and Al-Anbar Governorates, central Iraq. The delineation of the sub-surface structural features and evaluation of the structure of Najmah and Zubair Formations was done. The structure interpretation showed that the studied area was affected by normal fault bearing (NW-SE) direction with a small displacement. In contrast, time and depth maps showed monocline structures (nose structures) located in the western part of the studied area.
Hydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined. There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements. The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more accurate t
... Show MoreThis paper focus on study the variations of monthly tropospheric NO2 concentrations over three Iraqi cities Baghdad (33.3° N, 44.4° E), Basrah (30.56° N, 47.8° E) and Erbil (36.3° N, 44.06° E). Monthly NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard Aura satellite during the period from October 2004 to March 2013 have been used. The results show a high monthly and annual NO2 concentrations at Baghdad than Basra and Erbil may be attribute to high densely populations and a high economic activity. During the whole period, Baghdad, Basrah and Erbil were exhibited an average of NO2 (8.1±2.5), (3.7±1.3) and (3.3±1.7) in unit 1015 molecules
... Show MoreHydrocarbon production might cause changes in dynamic reservoir properties. Thus the consideration of the mechanical stability of a formation under different conditions of drilling or production is a very important issue, and basic mechanical properties of the formation should be determined.
There is considerable evidence, gathered from laboratory measurements in the field of Rock Mechanics, showing a good correlation between intrinsic rock strength and the dynamic elastic constant determined from sonic-velocity and density measurements.
The values of the mechanical properties determined from log data, such as the dynamic elastic constants derived from the measurement of the elastic wave velocities in the material, should be more a